Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,800
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Doug747
    Newest Member
    Doug747
    Joined

February 18th ?19th?


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

This storm has an upside potential ... not presently really seen in QPF distribution...

As is, there's a narrow band between the 500 mb and the 300 mb jet fields that is trying to open up from NW VA to western MA ... 12z Friday.  It's possible that gap widens a bit between those features - though probably not hugely so... Anyway, that band could nest a pretty strong CSI type band ...because the 500mb, 120 kt jet max is displaced E of the 300 mb ... which is cruising along at close to 200kt! 

There's likely to be a slot of enhanced lift along that region ... mid level fun and games.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Ah, the oft-modeled but seldom realized multi-stage long-duration event. Hopefully it's not just a sign that there are too many cooks in the kitchen.  

I just have to looks and see who's posting how great it looks to know the results up here ha, ha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Hazey said:


Yeah I’m keeping my eye on it. This one seems to be trending in a good way for once. We’ll see.


#NovaScotiaStrong

Yea, I think you get nailed in that one....take a look at my blog. Its redeveloping as it passes by SNE.

First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/significant-snows-likely-thursday-night.html

 

first call.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I learned is the snow maps are often wrong. If it’s cold enough the snow will be fluffier and we will get more snow than the maps are saying, where in more marginal setups where it’s warmer then it will be a heavy wet snow with less snow than the maps are saying. This storm appears to fall into the former camp, with temps dropping to the 20s during the storm. If the models have 6-80 inches of snow with temps in the 20s, I would double that and make a forecast. I’m going to stick to my earlier forecast with 12-15 in the Boston area and more to the NW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Whineminster said:

typically these things that snow for days and days don't lead to big totals 

Yeah most of my long duration events like Feb 7-9, 2015 or March 4-6, 2001 or Dec 1-3, 2019 or Feb 8-11, 1994 or Jan 2-4, 1996 are paltry totals. 

  • Haha 4
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, George001 said:

One thing I learned is the snow maps are often wrong. If it’s cold enough the snow will be fluffier and we will get more snow than the maps are saying, where in more marginal setups where it’s warmer then it will be a heavy wet snow with less snow than the maps are saying. This storm appears to fall into the former camp, with temps dropping to the 20s during the storm. 

Unless the snowflakes develop at the altitude of your mailbox, which they do not, then surface temps are not one of the larger determinants of ratio. Look at the temp, relative humidity and lift in the layer of the atmosphere where they develop....like 600-800mb.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, George001 said:

One thing I learned is the snow maps are often wrong. If it’s cold enough the snow will be fluffier and we will get more snow than the maps are saying, where in more marginal setups where it’s warmer then it will be a heavy wet snow with less snow than the maps are saying. This storm appears to fall into the former camp, with temps dropping to the 20s during the storm. 

They're always wrong.  They're called clown maps for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah most of my long duration events like Feb 7-9, 2015 or March 4-6, 2001 or Dec 1-3, 2019 or Feb 8-11, 1994 or Jan 2-4, 1996 are paltry totals. 

I think "long duration event" has a different connotation with various people. The vast majority of long duration events at 6-12 hours of heavy snow, and the rest nuisance crap...like this one should be. The heavy hitters are more like 12-18 hours of heavy snow, but you would need faster redevelopment of the mid levels for that....not impossible, but dubious here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Lol, it was the only model trying to stay cold with this past storm.  Hopefully wrong this time too. 

The UKIE has that same bizarre evolution the Euro has with the late arrival of the snow...its likely both are sort of killing the WAA and transferring energy to the new coastal..its only explanation I have why they both dont have precip til like 00Z or later and all other models are 12 hours earlier

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...