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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Will never laugh at the NAM again. This will be 2 storms this winter where it won. Dryslot is coming. And it was the first model to sniff it out.

The Nam does over do qpf totals so the joking about a "namming" is fairly legit but it is extremely useful for trend based forecasting.  With that said it was by itself this time so could not buy into it fully even if it ends up being the best forecast.  It dismays me to see Red Taggers cast it off or start sentences with "Good thing its not going to be right because its the Nam..."

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water vapor shows that slither of drier air pretty well, but it's been slowly filling in. that might coincide with better radar returns as we get through midday. nothing really surprising about this storm so far. it was always a bit north for central md, but it's also reasonable to think the ccb could nudge further southwest.  there's certainly time for that if the coastal forms further south or deepens quicker than expected.

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8 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

LOL don't look at the GFS.  Do yourself a favor just go outside right now.  

Not sure what you’re aiming for, but I definitely don’t hate it. Nice snow for DC and north tomorrow afternoon.

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Just now, MDweatherman said:

Hey there! God I hope so! My dreams of a good snowblower snow seem less and less every minute here.

its early. it was always going to be midday or so before we go into good returns up here. plus we get in on the action tomorrow with the coastal. i am sure youll put the snowblower to use :) 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure what you’re aiming for, but I definitely don’t hate it. Nice snow for DC and north tomorrow afternoon.

      I was very pleased with the GFS too, but the GFS para has the same general shape of the QPF field but cuts down the amounts between DC and the MD/PA by at least 1/2.

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