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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD


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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Whoa, para finally joins the party. Total tuck and stall. Looks like all snow from DC ok north. Great run. HH has been very kind.

         Still a bit too far north with its maximum love (for us Howard County folks), but each of the last 4 cycles has see the GFS para shift southward with the location of its max.   Just need one or two more....

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

         Still a bit too far north with its maximum love (for us Howard County folks), but each of the last 4 cycles has see the GFS para shift southward with the location of its max.   Just need one or two more....

It’s REALLY close. @mappy and @psuhoffman are huggin’.

Its been very stubbornly north even when the regular GFS started shifting. Seems like a big jump this run. 

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12 minutes ago, high risk said:

         Still a bit too far north with its maximum love (for us Howard County folks), but each of the last 4 cycles has see the GFS para shift southward with the location of its max.   Just need one or two more....

Give me 2.5-3 more shifts to get some more of that into the metro area too! ;)

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Because they basically mimic the OP that close in. 

That's definitely part of it.  Also they're lower resolution and won't be able to show the more subtle features and/or thermals as well as the high-res deterministic counterparts.  Ensembles are most useful beyond ~3 days.  I might almost argue they're still of some use for a short while more for the second part of this event, with the coastal development, to get an idea of the low center spreads, etc.  But we're on that fence of usefulness for that even now, as regional models are in range of it.

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Question: Why are ensembles no longer useful once we get this close to an event?

      Most of the source of spread in the ensembles (SREF and HREF not included) comes from tweaks to the initial state, and one must go further into the forecast period before those tweaks start to manifest themselves as significant spread in the outcomes.     If we forced spread to develop much faster in the forecast, it's likely that the spread in the longer ranges would be unusably large.

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