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January 30-February 1 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

IWX holding serve with the watch but did expand it northward to include the entire CWA. They're wording shows they're going with 4-7 in Michigan counties, 4-8 everywhere else. 

Thought that was odd...interested in their reasoning. Seems there's more than enough support for a warning almost 24 hours out.

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12 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

Thought that was odd...interested in their reasoning. Seems there's more than enough support for a warning almost 24 hours out.

 
Quote

 


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
350 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

...Confidence increasing on Accumulating snow Sat Night into
Sunday...

While signals are getting clearer, still some forecast issues that
warrant a general status quo for the area for the time being.
Feature of interest should be better sampled for the 00Z Sat model
data, hopefully helping out the confidence. The upper level wave
will rapidly translate east with surface low pressure tracking
across the northern Ohio Valley through this period. Models
suggest some light snow is possible during the day Saturday, but
lack of strong forcing and very dry low levels will preclude this
from occurring. Strong isentropic lift will edge into far SW areas
after 21Z and then spread rapidly NE into Saturday evening.
Highest snow accumulations will likely occur across mainly N
Indiana during the evening with axis then shifting NE overnight.
Snow ratios will range from 7 to 11:1, yielding a wet snow and
keeping amounts in check somewhat. That being said, still looks
like a solid 3 to 5 inches across the area Saturday night with the
warm air advection precip which would support a Winter Weather
Advisory for at least that period. The picture becomes more fuzzy
going into Sunday and possibly even into the long term as models
struggle with flattening of energy as it arrives with more of a
elongated trough setting up as the main energy begins to shift to
the east coast. As noted by the overnight forecast, this will
likely cause more of a widespread lighter snow into Sunday, but
still some potential for a touch of mesobanding and higher
snowfall ratios across the N and E which could boost amounts. The
higher amounts could warrant a warning in parts of the area, but
not enough confidence at this point to go that route.

Given all these factors and after extensive coordination with
surrounding offices have opted to not only hold with the watch but
expand into our MI counties to handle more of 4 to 7 inch
potential up in these areas as well as blend as best as possible
with headline changes to our north and west. This will be an
evolving situation with travel issues still expected Sat night
into at least Sunday.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Snownado said:

I am from Georgia. I miss the sun. At least the sun is out today. Cold, grey with bare ground is really depressing.

That is the truth my man. I never realized how much those 50-60 degree sunny days help you get through winter. We finally just said we had enough and went out yesterday with temps in the twenties because the sun was out.

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36 minutes ago, vortex said:

Plumes down to 5.6” here.  
Nice group between 6-8 but also a nice group between 4-6.  Lol. 
I’ll go 6” here. 
We definitely overdue.  

Trending in the wrong direction :lol:. Looking the p-type plots, lots of rainers. 21z will be different. They usually follow whatever the preceding NAM does. And it was better for us. 
Regardless, 6” is the goal. Hopefully we can get there! :D

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5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Trending in the wrong direction :lol:. Looking the p-type plots, lots of rainers. 21z will be different. They usually follow whatever the preceding NAM does. And it was better for us. 
Regardless, 6” is the goal. Hopefully we can get there! :D

It should rip like crazy there for a while.  Can see it on the CAMs before some possible modest weakening of the band as it moves through the Chicago metro area.  Even if you go drizzly for a time afterwards, the damage will have been done.  You're good to go.  Enjoy.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

It should rip like crazy there for a while.  Can see it on the CAMs before some possible modest weakening of the band as it moves through the Chicago metro area.  Even if you go drizzly for a time afterwards, the damage will have been done.  You're good to go.  Enjoy.

lol, I know. You know me though, nervous to the end. :D
On another note, looping the p-type maps on COD for the 18z NAMs is sorta fun with how the rain/snow transition takes place to the southwest. This whole thing kinda reminds me of 12/5/05, though that one was colder...but boy did it pound quickly.

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12 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Trending in the wrong direction :lol:. Looking the p-type plots, lots of rainers. 21z will be different. They usually follow whatever the preceding NAM does. And it was better for us. 
Regardless, 6” is the goal. Hopefully we can get there! :D

Some 15z SREF members are definitely bringing mix and straight rain further north and west than the 18z NAM.   

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From DVN:

 

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. THE  
925-850 MB WINDS ARE AVERAGING 30-40 KTS WHICH IS BRINGING A  
FREIGHT TRAIN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE  
WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT THE   
MODELS ARE INDICATING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE   
HIGHER AND SNOW AMOUNTS LOWER. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE   
WATCHED CAREFULLY WITH BOTH MODEL AND REAL DATA OVER THE NEXT   
12-18 HOURS.  

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5 minutes ago, Natester said:

From DVN:

 

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. THE  
925-850 MB WINDS ARE AVERAGING 30-40 KTS WHICH IS BRINGING A  
FREIGHT TRAIN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE  
WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT THE   
MODELS ARE INDICATING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE   
HIGHER AND SNOW AMOUNTS LOWER. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE   
WATCHED CAREFULLY WITH BOTH MODEL AND REAL DATA OVER THE NEXT   
12-18 HOURS.  

Yep.  I'm not expecting more than a few inches of slop.  Bummer.

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

My first post in this storm thread, as the FWA area has been in the models sights for a significant snow for several days and I didn't want to jinx it. Being within 36 hours of onset, I'm feeling safer now. 

With FWA sitting at 5.0" for the winter (6.3" imby), we are overdue. In fact, the last 6" snow at FWA was on 12/11/2016 (6.3".) So even with climo only giving us a six incher once every other year, we are way overdue.

I'm considering staying up all night on Saturday for a nice Jeb walk.

Hopefully you won't have to be making professional emergency runs.

 

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2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

At first i thought the 8-12 map was from early but it is time stamped 3:20 CST. No where in the forecast discussion or zone forecasts does it state 8-12.  Has to be wrong . 

The P&C for Elmwood Park is 6-10” for Saturday alone, with 90% snow listed for Sunday & 50% Sunday night. So 8-12” seems with what they’re kinda leaning towards outside of the warning text.

I agree it is a bit of an oversight to be pushing two separate low-max levels.

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This seems too conservative for Chicago, even for Angrysummons.

Saturday
A 50 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Saturday Night
Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Windy, with an east southeast wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. High near 33. Breezy, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
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Just now, mimillman said:

This seems too conservative for Chicago, even for Angrysummons.

Saturday
A 50 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Saturday Night
Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Windy, with an east southeast wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. High near 33. Breezy, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Yeah, my P&C just changed as well. Went from 6-10 Sat night to 4-8. Maybe they’ve got info we don’t?

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