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WxMatt21

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About WxMatt21

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KFWA
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Fort Wayne, IN

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  1. Absolutely incredible! 39 freakin' miles. .OVERVIEW: A long track tornado formed in Delaware County Indiana and continued through Blackford (IN), Jay (IN) and Mercer County (OH) before weakening. .TORNADO 1 Rating: EF-2 Estimated peak wind: 134 mph Path length /Statute/: 39 miles (total length) Path width /Maximum/: Yet to be determined Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 (IWX area) Start date: Nov 05 2017 Start time: 124 PM EST Start location: 1 NW Eaton Indiana / Delaware / IN Start Lat/Lon: 40.3499/-85.3614 End date: Nov 05 2017 End time: 230 PM EST End location: 6W Celina Ohio / Mercer / OH End_lat/lon: 40.5607/-84.6854 SURVEY_SUMMARY: Three survey teams were dispatched. The most significant damage is consistent with EF2/134 mph. The path covered three NWS offices and included... 6 mile path in Delaware County/WFO IND 25 mile long path in Blackford and Jay county/WFO IWX 8 mile long path in Mercer County Ohio/WFO ILN.
  2. Had some Halloween fun during my forecast today at 5 Gotta watch out for that clumsy Headless Weatherman!
  3. First of all, there are some positives to this scenario verbatim. Cold air and snowpack building to our north and west, with the most extreme warm anomalies well to our south. Gradient is close enough that a little wiggle room could keep the blowtorch at bay. Also, this look is far kinder than last year's composite at this time...
  4. And back to the blue we go. It'll be interesting to see where things trend as we get closer to the end of the month.
  5. This. If we're going to crank up the heat, might as well be this time of year. 1-2º above average, overall, in November would actually be pretty decent. An endless string of +10-20º departures would get pretty old, though.
  6. It is October 9th...and the CFS...expect that map to change between now and the end of the month
  7. Some of the comments on the WLNS page are truly despicable, but sadly not surprising. Being the messenger, especially on a day with important programming, is rough. This past July I cut into The Bachelorette for two tornado warnings. I had over 20 voicemails, lots of newsroom calls and several Facebook posts/messages complaining that my cut in was too long, even though it's our station policy to stay on for the duration of the warning. Trying to reason with many of these people is a lost cause! (Although don't get me wrong, for all the nasty comments, there were also a lot of positive ones, particularly from the regions affected by the warning)
  8. 80s look likely this weekend and perhaps next week. If the Euro is to believed, maybe even into next weekend. This pattern is truly incredible, even though I typically loathe warm autumns. At least in October 2007, temps plummeted to well below normal levels by mid month before warming back well above normal. I don't see any convincing signs temps will trend below normal for longer than a day or two until MAYBE late this month.
  9. Certainly not NEARLY as torchy as once believed earlier in the week. The numbers we were seeing would have been impressive for October, no doubt. In Northern Indiana, might only squeeze in two low 80 degree days next week before things trail back off to +5, +10 worst-case through next weekend.
  10. Nice long term AFD discussion by IWX this afternoon. We have talked a lot about the 2007 analog lately, and the CPC seems to be weighting that year pretty heavily, too: Very warm weather is ahead next week with high temperatures in the 80s as an upper level ridge builds into the area. Highs of 90 or higher in October are extremely rare (has only happened once in 100+ years at Ft Wayne). Highs in the 80s are much more common. The pattern we are in now closely resembles the early fall "analog" of 2007. During this year, late September was warm and dry, with highs in the 80s several times. This pattern 10 years ago extended into early October. There is a reasonable correlation of very warm temps separated by short, cooler breaks between this year and 2007. As far as the blend, attempted to go above highs and below rain chances. Believe the EC continues to be an outlier and was contributing to higher rain chances and lower temps in the blend Wed- Fri. It looks like any break with the warm temperatures will be short with highs returning to near 20 degrees above normal shortly after the end of the forecast period.
  11. Overdone was an understatement, especially after looking at the 12z ECMWF. Laughable, actually!
  12. Meanwhile in Fort Wayne...broke a 109 year old record! I must say, this pattern is gross, but the bitterly cold days of winter are upon us and I'll be wishing for warmth again soon enough.
  13. This was so bizarre to me. Everything looked good to go, but it fell apart almost as soon as it started. Not a single warned storm in NE Indiana (aside from the cells SW of Grant county, but that wasn't in my forecast area :)). I felt like I might've downplayed it a bit too much (thought the enhanced and 45% risk area was extremely bullish), but I'm glad I went more conservative. It's been such a strange summer. Busy on paper, with next to nothing to show for it.
  14. Haha hey, that looks familiar! Definitely a zzzz pattern, but I welcome some quieter weather Many areas north of Fort Wayne have gone weeks without much rain to speak of, though, and I see there is a D0 on the drought monitor for a sliver of N. Indiana/S Michigan, which makes sense. May need to bump up POPs Thursday and increase cloud cover some Wed, but overall nothing too exciting for the foreseeable future.
  15. Exactly! I'm going down to Carbondale, IL, with a photographer to cover the event, but knowing my luck it won't be clear or super stormy...we'll be stuck under thick cloud over with light rain most of the day Hoping for the best!