WxMatt21

Currently 36 at FWA. Areas south and west/east of here all in the mid 30s. Expect some cooling as the heavy precip moves in, but it has been way warmer than modeled.

I was referring to surface wind/being able to take off

No updates! Says on time, so I guess we'll see. I feel like the thing I have going for me is a strong headwind. At least no t-storms will be in the vicinity! Crossing fingers...

I have a flight leaving BOS and headed NE to Edinburgh at 9 pm tomorrow Winds don't seem too out of control at that point, but I'm admittedly not as familiar with the sustained/gust threshold for commercial airlines and what qualifies for a delay or cancellation...

Sunday the 25th at 12z. Of course, model consistency is severely lacking, so take that, as well as anything else, with a huge grain of salt.

According to Chief Met Tom Coomes (ABC57 in South Bend), this is just for Wednesday. He didn't feel comfortable adding in Thursday's totals yet.

Interesting blog post from Judah Cohen about the late spring and early summer pattern

FWA and surrounding areas quite a bit colder than modeled thanks to clearing. Think HRRR has the right idea. 0Z NAM has FWA getting into the upper 30s Thursday afternoon, but it also had us at 24 by midnight. We're 16 right now. 00z HRRR has us getting to 33/34, it had us modeled at 19 by midnight. This colder solution will obviously translate to a better shot at getting more snow than rain. Still expecting about 1-2" here, though wonder if we could see an overachiever.

Thought that was odd...interested in their reasoning. Seems there's more than enough support for a warning almost 24 hours out.

Not to mention some of the op solutions I've seen (looking at you, NAM) are just outright laughable for NE IN...like, way beyond climatology and approaching, or in some cases shattering, all-time snow records. Never say never, I suppose, but ensembles showing a swath of 5-7" is far more realistic for this area than anything over 10". I don't regret not issuing a snow map today. But hey, if this thing ends up overachieving, I'm here for it all the same!

Oh, I was just commenting about northern Indiana, particularly NE where we don't get much lake action. Both ice and snow have been exaggerated in recent memory on the euro, but clearly that's not the case everywhere!

Well, the most recent one was the ice event on New Year's Day. Euro consistently had 0.50"+ of ice accretion not only days ahead of the event, but on the day itself! Then the December 2nd event where the Euro painted a stripe of 7"+ for Northern Indiana about a day or two leading up to the event. We ended with about an inch.

I can name at least three systems just this winter that were pegged as big dogs on the Euro (even a day or two out!) for NE Indiana only to fizzle into sloppy, wet, utterly forgettable snow showers. Of course, I live in Fort Wayne, IN, a place where storms come to die a swift and painless death.

Unfortunately, these people are beyond convincing. I have a few family members who just simply don't care, regardless of the statistics or personal anecdotes you share with them. This pandemic has brought out the worst (and occasionally best) in people.

What I can't stand is when people say, "Well it's only the elderly who get seriously ill or die..." or "It's only those with preexisting conditions who need to worry..." First of all, that's just obviously false. Most importantly, though, it's outrageously callous.