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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


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1 hour ago, mannylovessnow said:

Looks like it's just become light snow in Lower Manhattan. Much earlier than expected, hopefully that's a good sign. 

I have lived in New York City for 47 years, storms that start early always do well, i’m gonna keep on ehhhing  and ahhing, usually usually ends up not panning out. So yes I did find that to be the case.

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41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not convinced the heaviest totals will be north & west of NYC.

Very cold/dry over there and temps have been very cold down to C/NJ. Euro/GFS are further south with jackpot zone.

So I have an inkling jackpot will be near or just south of I-78. I'm also basing this off the current overrunning snows which are targeting C/NJ.

Approaching 2" here in Sussex, and there's over 2" now in NEPA. 

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13 minutes ago, jaquanweb said:

im a bit surprised we aren’t seeing blizzard warnings yet crazy totals here in north jersey supposed to start work at 4am thats not happening 

According to Mt Holly, the worst winds will be when there is mixing, hence they won't see need for blizzard warnings. Saw it in their discussion.

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12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Either this model is completely nuts or it's about to score a huge victory. 

This GFS run was a good bit more amped/west than the last one especially with the mid level lows. This run has the 700 low over Bucks County PA which is west enough that verbatim the dry slot can make it east of the city pretty quickly. Of course it's great west of the city but here it's not ideal and would probably mean east of the city stays under a foot. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This GFS run was a good bit more amped/west than the last one especially with the mid level lows. This run has the 700 low over Bucks County PA which is west enough that verbatim the dry slot can make it east of the city pretty quickly. Of course it's great west of the city but here it's not ideal and would probably mean east of the city stays under a foot. 

Yea GFS really has it tucked in. Brings changeover to Long Island

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14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This GFS run was a good bit more amped/west than the last one especially with the mid level lows. This run has the 700 low over Bucks County PA which is west enough that verbatim the dry slot can make it east of the city pretty quickly. Of course it's great west of the city but here it's not ideal and would probably mean east of the city stays under a foot. 

all day you been the glass half empty for the city..

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I do 12 hour shifts in Hopewell Jct., Dutchess County; I live in central Rockland.  I'm not going in tomorrow because it should get progressively worse with every hour that goes by.  Bear Mountain Bridge hills are no fun in a two wheel drive MINI Cooper after about six inches.  I miss my Jeep Wrangler....  lol  I'm off 'til Friday I suspect.....  for the next storm....
Ahhh the good ole goat trail!

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm approaching 2" as well near Middlesex/Somerset border.

Oddly enough that fits the para gfs jackpot with peak from NW NJ NE PA down to C/NJ.

Hey, where are you located? I’m in Piscataway in northern middlesex county and have no where near that. Half inch at best. 

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs isn't a mesoscale model

It's new (v16) so hard to say how it'll do this close in but the 700 low north of Philly isn't what you want to see near NYC. We want that just off the NJ coast. It's been backing off the huge totals and QPF in this area the last few runs likely because of that- brings the dry slot in faster and also risks more warm air for coastal spots. 

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54 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Agree to the criteria that’s defined below. They could be thinking that the sustainable winds won’t occur for another 24 hours.

Blizzard Warning

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer
AND
2)  Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.
There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions.

Upton explaining why they didn't issue blizzard warnings:

For coastal areas, winds 20-40 mph with gusts 40-60 mph will help create near-blizzard to
blizzard conditions from roughly mid-morning into the
afternoon, possibly even into the evening. Working against this
however is that an elevated warm nose then likely pushes into
much of Long Island and SE CT, possibly even into the city as
well. This then introduces mixed precipitation for these
locations, with even a complete changeover to rain across the
Twin Forks and potentially even coastal SE CT with the help of
boundary layer temperatures and the warming aloft. Do not have
enough confidence of 3 hours of blizzard conditions to go with a
blizzard warning - whether it be due to uncertainty of PCPN
type or winds being consistently strong enough while it`s
snowing. There is still a potential that some areas get
converted to a blizzard warning if confidence increases. The
strongest frontogenesis is likely to the north of these areas in
the evening, so dynamic cooling won`t be much of a factor for
much of the forecast area at this point.

The city, especially LGA, probably has the best chance for blizzard conditions, being less likely to mix while still being close enough to the coast for the winds.

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That said it's the most amped of the models with it and other models like the NAM have the mid level features a bit to the east. However a fast dry slot is always a threat when the 700 low goes west of you. 

This isn’t a Suffolk special, this setup favors NJ. We will get over a foot for sure, especially your area. 

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