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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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1/2” of hair spray, coating of spray tan, 3” of creatine. 

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The macro-scale physical forcing agents are conducive. After most of January +PNA/-NAO in the means and a few missed opportunities, favorability tends to reach a point of culmination during significan

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

HRRR3 Model seems to have Precip Type issues by Noon tomorrow for all of LI, NYC, S. Shore of Conn. and all but upper third of NJ.        I think it is an experimental output though.     Comments.         Choose correct Sector.      Check Radar and Winter       Use the > to go as far as it can on the 23Z Run, passed the Red boxes.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/

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Snowlover11

Snowlover11

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

HRRR3 Model seems to have Precip Type issues by Noon tomorrow for all of LI, NYC, S. Shore of Conn. and all but upper third of NJ.        I think it is an experimental output though.     Comments.         Choose correct Sector.      Check Radar and Winter       Use the > to go as far as it can on the 23Z Run, passed the Red boxes.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/hrrr/

While you cant discount it, I believe it is running too warm.  i dont see a mix line running that far northwest, i can see the mix line getting north of eastern LI but thats about as far as it gets towards western li/nyc

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Nibor

Nibor

Posted
Posted
Just now, Snowlover11 said:

While you cant discount it, I believe it is running too warm.  i dont see a mix line running that far northwest, i can see the mix line getting north of eastern LI but thats about as far as it gets towards western li/nyc

As others have stated the hrrr seems to be best under 6hrs of runtime. Past that the differences are pretty inconsistent. 

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

While you cant discount it, I believe it is running too warm.  i dont see a mix line running that far northwest, i can see the mix line getting north of eastern LI but thats about as far as it gets towards western li/nyc

It definitely won’t be that far northwest by noon. Although some models do have the mix line approaching the region overnight with the overrunning precip but it will crash once the coastal takes over. 

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Jt17

Jt17

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs pops another little low on Tuesday 

Gfs has snow until Wednesday morning

I mean I know it's possibly a faux pas at this juncture to post snow maps, but I'm curious what it shows with that other little low on Tuesday 

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Will - Rutgers

Will - Rutgers

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Burrito27 said:

So Noaa just lowered our totals in Monmouth (Tinton Falls, a few miles from Red Bank) to less than one inch on monday. Everything on here is saying differently, I hate IMBY posts but I will be going to work if it's only going to be an inch of accumulation. Any Ideas ? 

i really don't see what would support an inch of snow or less on monday anywhere in monmouth

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neg-ano

neg-ano

Posted
Posted 
633
NOUS41 KPHI 010359
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106-011559-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1059 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...Delaware...

...Kent County...
Woodside                     4.0 in    0703 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 S Harrington               2.6 in    0520 PM 01/31   Mesonet
Harrington                   2.5 in    0558 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
4 S Hazlettville             2.4 in    0625 PM 01/31   Mesonet
2 SE Frederica               2.3 in    0840 PM 01/31   Mesonet
West Dover                   2.0 in    0520 PM 01/31   Mesonet
2 SE Dover                   2.0 in    0625 PM 01/31   Mesonet
2 S Smyrna Landing           1.7 in    0840 PM 01/31   Mesonet
Dover                        1.0 in    0233 PM 01/31   Public

...New Castle County...
Bear                         3.5 in    0745 PM 01/31   Public
Pike Creek                   3.5 in    0908 PM 01/31   Public
Newark                       3.0 in    0830 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 NW Midvale                 2.5 in    0840 PM 01/31   Mesonet
1 E Glasgow                  2.3 in    0830 PM 01/31   Mesonet
Hockessin                    2.3 in    0840 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Monroe Park                  2.2 in    0935 PM 01/31   Mesonet
New Castle County Airport    2.1 in    0700 PM 01/31   ASOS
White Clay Creek             2.0 in    0715 PM 01/31   Mesonet
1 SW West Park               1.8 in    0830 PM 01/31   Mesonet
1 E Ashbourne Hills          1.6 in    0715 PM 01/31   Mesonet
Winterthur                   1.6 in    0830 PM 01/31   Mesonet
Newark                       1.5 in    0503 PM 01/31   Cocorahs
Glasgow                      1.5 in    0537 PM 01/31   Public
1 SSE Newark                 1.2 in    0520 PM 01/31   Mesonet
Port Penn                    1.2 in    0830 PM 01/31   Mesonet

...Sussex County...
Delmar                       3.8 in    0328 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Milton                       3.5 in    0450 PM 01/31   Public
1 W Seaford                  3.3 in    0400 PM 01/31   Cocorahs
Georgetown                   3.0 in    0321 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
2 SW Laurel                  3.0 in    0345 PM 01/31   Mesonet
5 W Seaford                  3.0 in    0535 PM 01/31   Mesonet
Stockley                     2.9 in    0410 PM 01/31   Mesonet
1 SE Dagsboro                2.8 in    0410 PM 01/31   Mesonet
Ellendale                    2.6 in    0625 PM 01/31   Mesonet
2 SSE Bridgeville            2.5 in    0410 PM 01/31   Mesonet
Nassau                       2.3 in    0520 PM 01/31   Mesonet
2 N Harbeson                 2.0 in    0400 PM 01/31   Cocorahs
Lewes                        2.0 in    0400 PM 01/31   Public
1 WNW Lewes                  1.9 in    0520 PM 01/31   Mesonet
Harbeson                     1.8 in    0300 PM 01/31   Public
Bethany Beach                1.1 in    0520 PM 01/31   Mesonet

...Maryland...

...Caroline County...
4 SSE Ingleside              3.2 in    0630 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Kent County...
Chestertown                  4.0 in    0620 PM 01/31   Public

...Queen Annes County...
Stevensville                 2.3 in    0430 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 SW Millington              2.0 in    0326 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
3 SW Chester                 1.0 in    1122 AM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Talbot County...
Easton                       3.0 in    0653 PM 01/31   Public
Royal Oak                    2.5 in    0453 PM 01/31   CO-OP Observer

...New Jersey...

...Atlantic County...
Mays Landing                 3.0 in    0741 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Pomona                       2.5 in    0825 PM 01/31   Broadcast Media
Egg Harbor City              1.8 in    0510 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Hammonton                    1.6 in    0845 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Estell Manor                 1.5 in    0800 PM 01/31   CO-OP Observer
Egg Harbor Twp               1.3 in    0700 PM 01/31   Public
3 NNE Somers Point           1.0 in    0645 PM 01/31   Public
Atlantic City International  1.0 in    0700 PM 01/31   ASOS

...Burlington County...
1 SW Westampton Twp          2.8 in    1000 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Eastampton Twp               2.7 in    0700 PM 01/31   Public
Burlington Twp               2.0 in    0535 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Lumberton                    2.0 in    0945 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 WNW South Jersey Regional  1.8 in    0700 PM 01/31   NWS Employee
Mount Laurel                 1.8 in    0715 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
2 SW Medford                 1.8 in    0830 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Columbus                     1.5 in    0530 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 NNE Rancocas               1.5 in    0700 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 ENE Westampton Twp         1.4 in    0700 PM 01/31   Official NWS Obs
Hainesport                   1.0 in    0530 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Camden County...
Berlin                       3.0 in    0757 PM 01/31   Public
Lindenwold                   2.7 in    1000 PM 01/31   NWS Employee
Gloucester City              1.9 in    0906 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Haddon Heights               1.8 in    0725 PM 01/31   Public
1 S Springdale               1.6 in    0700 PM 01/31   NWS Employee
1 NNE Gibbsboro              1.0 in    0525 PM 01/31   NWS Employee

...Cape May County...
Goshen                       1.0 in    0738 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Villas                       0.8 in    0743 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Seaville                     0.5 in    0438 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Gloucester County...
Malaga                       3.0 in    0900 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Woodbury                     2.8 in    0916 PM 01/31   Public
1 NE Glassboro               2.0 in    0636 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Williamstown                 2.0 in    0745 PM 01/31   Amateur Radio
1 SW Washington Twp          1.9 in    0815 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Pitman                       1.4 in    0745 PM 01/31   Cocorahs
Sewell                       1.0 in    0536 PM 01/31   Public

...Hunterdon County...
1 WNW Stanton                5.5 in    0800 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Flemington                   4.0 in    0720 PM 01/31   Public
4 SE Sand Brook              4.0 in    1000 PM 01/31   Public
Flemington                   4.0 in    1015 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 WSW Cloverhill             3.3 in    0745 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Readington Twp               1.4 in    0458 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Mercer County...
2 E Windsor                  3.0 in    0700 PM 01/31   Public
Ewing                        3.0 in    0745 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
2 E Ewing                    2.5 in    0800 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 E Hamilton Twp             2.1 in    0632 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Princeton                    0.9 in    0400 PM 01/31   Public
3 ESE Lawrence Twp           0.5 in    0309 PM 01/31   Public

...Middlesex County...
Woodbridge                   4.5 in    0950 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Monmouth Junction            4.2 in    0800 PM 01/31   Public
East Brunswick               4.0 in    0935 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Metuchen                     3.5 in    0935 PM 01/31   Public
Manalapan Twp                3.5 in    0945 PM 01/31   Public
Middlesex                    3.0 in    0900 PM 01/31   Public
Old Bridge                   3.0 in    0936 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Perth Amboy                  3.0 in    0936 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
South Plainfield             3.0 in    0936 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Sayreville                   3.0 in    0937 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
New Brunswick                3.0 in    1043 PM 01/31   Public
3 NNE East Windsor Twp       2.8 in    0715 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Edison                       2.5 in    0540 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
South Brunswick              2.0 in    0630 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 E Highland Park            0.5 in    0150 PM 01/31   Public

...Monmouth County...
Wall Twp                     5.0 in    1047 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Manalapan Twp                4.0 in    1022 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Keyport                      3.5 in    1000 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Atlantic Highlands           3.1 in    0936 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Oakhurst                     2.8 in    0556 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Red Bank                     2.5 in    0714 PM 01/31   Public
Howell                       2.0 in    0445 PM 01/31   Public
Freehold Twp                 1.7 in    0600 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Leonardo                     1.5 in    0700 PM 01/31   Public

...Morris County...
2 NNE Brookside              2.3 in    0825 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Mendham                      1.8 in    0700 PM 01/31   Public
Lake Hopatcong               1.8 in    0928 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Ocean County...
Whiting                      5.0 in    1040 PM 01/31   Public
Forked River                 4.5 in    1027 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
2 ESE Ramtown                3.1 in    0730 PM 01/31   Public
Brick                        3.0 in    0919 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Berkeley Twp                 3.0 in    0945 PM 01/31   Public
Jackson                      2.8 in    0800 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Bayville                     2.6 in    0830 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Manahawkin                   2.2 in    0930 PM 01/31   Broadcast Media
Toms River                   2.1 in    0907 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Lacey Twp                    2.0 in    0729 PM 01/31   Public
1 NNE Lanoka Harbor          2.0 in    0830 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Tuckerton                    2.0 in    0830 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 SE Manahawkin              1.5 in    0900 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Little Egg Harbor Twp        1.3 in    0731 PM 01/31   Broadcast Media
1 S Point Pleasant           1.0 in    0451 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Beach Haven                  0.7 in    0622 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Point Pleasant               0.5 in    0552 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Salem County...
Pennsville                   4.0 in    0547 PM 01/31   Public
Pilesgrove Twp               3.3 in    0955 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Somerset County...
Branchburg Twp               4.3 in    0835 PM 01/31   Public
2 ENE Montgomery Twp         4.2 in    1000 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Somerville                   3.1 in    0745 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Bridgewater                  3.0 in    0849 PM 01/31   Public
Hillsborough Twp             1.5 in    0525 PM 01/31   Public
4 SE Oldwick                 1.4 in    0531 PM 01/31   Cocorahs

...Warren County...
Great Meadows                3.4 in    1007 PM 01/31   Public
Liberty Twp                  3.0 in    0937 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Stewartsville                2.5 in    0555 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Pennsylvania...

...Berks County...
1 NW Reading                 5.3 in    0900 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Huffs Church                 4.5 in    0815 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Mertztown                    3.8 in    0945 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Bern Twp                     3.5 in    0705 PM 01/31   Emergency Mngr
Sinking Spring               3.5 in    0800 PM 01/31   Public
1 N Union Twp                3.0 in    0620 PM 01/31   Public
Spring Twp                   3.0 in    0725 PM 01/31   Public
1 WNW Washington Twp         2.3 in    0700 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Bucks County...
1 W Buckingham Twp           5.1 in    0900 PM 01/31   Public
Quakertown                   5.0 in    0920 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 SE West Rockhill Twp       4.5 in    0843 PM 01/31   Public
Furlong                      4.3 in    0952 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Buckingham Twp               4.2 in    0900 PM 01/31   Public
Sellersville                 4.0 in    0800 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 SSW Chalfont               4.0 in    0841 PM 01/31   Public
Chalfont                     4.0 in    1000 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Newtown                      3.7 in    1000 PM 01/31   Public
Lower Makefield Twp          3.5 in    0900 PM 01/31   Public
1 WNW Feasterville-Trevose   3.5 in    1000 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Warminster                   3.0 in    0620 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Trumbauersville              3.0 in    0715 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Village Shires               3.0 in    0806 PM 01/31   Public
Bensalem                     3.0 in    0810 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
New Hope                     3.0 in    0815 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Fairless Hills               2.8 in    0637 PM 01/31   Public
Chalfont                     2.5 in    0700 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Bensalem                     2.5 in    1038 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Langhorne                    2.0 in    0611 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Carbon County...
1 NE Christmans              2.0 in    0430 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Chester County...
Oxford                       4.8 in    1045 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Pughtown                     4.5 in    0908 PM 01/31   Public
East Nantmeal Twp            4.0 in    0830 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
2 S Wallace Twp              4.0 in    0833 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Avondale                     4.0 in    0900 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
East Coventry Twp            4.0 in    0915 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
2 S East Nantmeal Twp        3.5 in    0915 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Paoli                        3.5 in    0930 PM 01/31   Public
Schuylkill Twp               3.4 in    0915 PM 01/31   Public
Jennersville                 3.3 in    0745 PM 01/31   Public
1 ESE Berwyn                 2.8 in    1015 PM 01/31   Public
New London Twp.              2.5 in    0553 PM 01/31   Public
1 WSW Valley Forge           2.3 in    0639 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
West Chester                 2.0 in    0810 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Delaware County...
1 WSW Springfield Twp        3.0 in    0924 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Villanova                    2.8 in    0900 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Upper Chichester Twp         2.7 in    0928 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Chadds Ford Twp              2.5 in    0730 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 ENE Chelsea                2.5 in    0851 PM 01/31   Public
2 SSW Cheyney                2.1 in    0655 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Parkside                     2.0 in    0645 PM 01/31   Public
1 NE Lawrence Park           1.5 in    0930 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Lehigh County...
Whitehall Twp                4.8 in    0950 PM 01/31   Public
Zionsville                   4.5 in    0815 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 WSW Macungie               4.5 in    1040 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Macungie                     3.5 in    0830 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Coopersburg                  3.0 in    0643 PM 01/31   Public
Lehigh Valley International  2.2 in    0700 PM 01/31   ASOS
Germansville                 1.0 in    0259 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
2 W Breinigsville            1.0 in    0404 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Monroe County...
Mount Pocono                 2.0 in    0705 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Pocono Summit                1.8 in    0540 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter

...Montgomery County...
Norristown                   5.5 in    0855 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
New Hanover Twp              5.0 in    1030 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Lower Frederick Twp          4.0 in    0815 PM 01/31   Public
Worcester Twp                4.0 in    0900 PM 01/31   Public
Pottstown                    4.0 in    0915 PM 01/31   Public
Gilbertsville                4.0 in    0930 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Willow Grove                 4.0 in    0945 PM 01/31   Public
Eagleville                   3.2 in    0900 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
1 W Ambler                   3.0 in    0730 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Lansdale                     3.0 in    0800 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Plymouth Meeting             3.0 in    0900 PM 01/31   Public
Hatfield                     2.5 in    0715 PM 01/31   Public
3 N Royersford               1.5 in    0500 PM 01/31   Public

...Northampton County...
Nazareth                     5.0 in    0945 PM 01/31   Public
North Catasauqua             3.4 in    0900 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Bethlehem                    3.3 in    1030 PM 01/31   Public
Lower Mount Bethel Twp       3.1 in    0835 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Bushkill Twp                 3.0 in    0705 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Tatamy                       3.0 in    0730 PM 01/31   Public
Hellertown                   3.0 in    0900 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
2 NW Riegelsville            3.0 in    0930 PM 01/31   Public
Palmer Heights               2.0 in    0410 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
2 ESE Moore Twp              2.0 in    0530 PM 01/31   Public
Bangor                       1.3 in    0320 PM 01/31   Public

...Philadelphia County...
1 ENE Mount Airy             3.0 in    0900 PM 01/31   Public
2 NE Northeast Philadelphia  2.0 in    0600 PM 01/31   Public
Point Breeze                 1.9 in    0609 PM 01/31   Trained Spotter
Philadelphia International A 1.8 in    0700 PM 01/31   ASOS
Fox Chase                    1.6 in    0629 PM 01/31   Public
&&
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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Comparing 0z to 4z HRRR it seems to be moving the low east a bit. Also more impressive with snow totals. Has SW CT at 7 inches by 15z vs 5 inches. Low is stronger as well.

HRRR is completely and utterly lost on this one. Just look at the radar sim. It has no CCB and precipitation field to the west of the low. Not gonna happen, it's an extreme outlier. Even the other mesos whole disagree.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, scoobydoo1 said:

The gfs shows what appears to be the low stalling  and strengthening through tuesday right off belmar nj

Curious if the precip will remain as intense.

 

Thoughts?

No.  The system occludes as well as the flow aloft being almost entirely NNE off land at that stage with no Atlantic moisture influx.  You also will have probably poisoned the mid levels with some milder temps leading to poor snow growth.  Some isolated areas of accumulating snow will happen later tomorrow night and early Tuesday but over 1-2 inches additional accumulation won’t occur many places at all 

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