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Rittenhouse

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  1. Rittenhouse
    From the NWS discussion: I performed a cursory analysis of current conditions this morning and I found that temps are running a few degrees cooler than forecast with dewpoints in the single digits. Up stream observations in NC and southern VA suggests that snow is over performing. I have adjusted my snow ratios this morning to account for the well below freezing layer ahead of the precipitation which should allow for higher snow rates. Initial onset of precipitation is on track this morning and snow should fluffy to start before switching over to wet snow as the layer starts to warm and transitions over to a wintry mix for most areas along and east of I-81. I will continue to monitor current conditions to see if I need to up snow totals. It wouldn`t surprise me if we get higher snow totals further eastward than expected due to extremely cool air mass ahead of this system.
  2. Rittenhouse
    This one was a NYC metro jackpot.
  3. Rittenhouse
    Had no idea that 12"+ snowfalls were that unusual. Seems like we have one every couple of years or so these days.
  4. Rittenhouse
    NYC closing in on a foot... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1044 AM EST MON FEB 1 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1030 AM HEAVY SNOW CARROLL GARDENS 40.68N 74.00W 02/01/2021 M9.5 INCH KINGS NY TRAINED SPOTTER
  5. Rittenhouse
    The models seem to underestimate overrunning/front-end snows but overestimate back-end snows for NYC. Not sure the science behind it.
  6. Rittenhouse
    Upton explaining why they didn't issue blizzard warnings: For coastal areas, winds 20-40 mph with gusts 40-60 mph will help create near-blizzard to blizzard conditions from roughly mid-morning into the afternoon, possibly even into the evening. Working against this however is that an elevated warm nose then likely pushes into much of Long Island and SE CT, possibly even into the city as well. This then introduces mixed precipitation for these locations, with even a complete changeover to rain across the Twin Forks and potentially even coastal SE CT with the help of boundary layer temperatures and the warming aloft. Do not have enough confidence of 3 hours of blizzard conditions to go with a blizzard warning - whether it be due to uncertainty of PCPN type or winds being consistently strong enough while it`s snowing. There is still a potential that some areas get converted to a blizzard warning if confidence increases. The strongest frontogenesis is likely to the north of these areas in the evening, so dynamic cooling won`t be much of a factor for much of the forecast area at this point. The city, especially LGA, probably has the best chance for blizzard conditions, being less likely to mix while still being close enough to the coast for the winds.
  7. Rittenhouse
    I don't think Central Park ever reported sleet. The totals were kept down in the NYC metro due to dry slotting, not mixing. The best bands set up to the north and west of the area. This was clearly shown by the NAM before the storm.
  8. Rittenhouse
    This system stretches all the way into the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan.
  9. Rittenhouse
    Eye-like feature developed this morning.
  10. Rittenhouse
    Manhattan Mesonet station (UES) reported a 40mph gust at 6:45pm.
  11. Rittenhouse
    Winds picking up: LGA reporting sustained winds of 28 mph, gusting to 35 mph.
  12. Rittenhouse
    The initial band is impressive. All of that should fall as snow even at the coast. The mixing showed on the NAM occurs after the initial band, during the dry slotting.
  13. Rittenhouse
    The low dew points this morning indicate the strength of the cold air mass in place. Stronger high = less chance for mixing.
  14. Rittenhouse
    Dew points this morning were impressive: 2 degrees in Central Park, 6 degrees at JFK. As Bernie Rayno pointed out, this suggests that there will be less mixing in the city.
  15. Rittenhouse
    As you can see in that snow map, western suburbs of DC do alright. Dulles Airport averages about as much snow as NYC.
  16. Rittenhouse
    The satellite this morning is fun to look at. You can see clearly how elevation dependent this event was for the Hudson Valley.
  17. Rittenhouse
    Downtown Brooklyn
  18. Rittenhouse
    BOS hasn't dipped below 34 yet. Doubt they see much from this. Onshore flow makes all the difference this time of year.
  19. Rittenhouse
  20. Rittenhouse
    Odd that the two don't match up. Either way, a historic storm.
  21. Rittenhouse
    I don't see that one on here? https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/DailyHighestSnowfall.pdf
  22. Rittenhouse
    Well that's a record folks. This is the worst November snowstorm on record for NYC. It also shatters the earliest 6+inch snowfall on record by over 2 weeks.
  23. Rittenhouse
    I don't think they salted in NYC. There wasn't even an advisory until this afternoon. Pretty sure Central Park will meet warning criteria with this.
  24. Rittenhouse
    IIRC there were a couple pros on here last night who discussed the potential for this to overperform. The dew point last night in Boston was 1...that was a pretty good indication of things to come. Also these overrunning snows from the south always seem to overperform and are poorly forecasted by the models.
  25. Rittenhouse
    Does warm water ever enhance snowfall? Is it possible, say, to get an enhancing effect with an ENE wind off the Long Island Sound?
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