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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


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From NWS BGM 1PM

 

Concern is growing for potential of high snowfall rates in
banded precipitation Monday midday through evening in the
Wilkes- Barre/Poconos/Southern Catskills areas, then pivoting
its way further northwest - inland - from there while also
losing some of the intensity. This occurs along midlevel
frontogenesis with strong warm air advection and moisture influx
through the dendritic growth layer to cause additional
enhancement. Some potential for totals exceeding 2 feet in
Poconos-Southern Catskills. Models continue to be assessed and
forecast updates are in progress.

 

What areas constitute the SOUTHERN Catskills ? @snywx @Ericjcrash @crossbowftw3

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1 minute ago, sferic said:

From NWS BGM 1PM

 


Concern is growing for potential of high snowfall rates in
banded precipitation Monday midday through evening in the
Wilkes- Barre/Poconos/Southern Catskills areas, then pivoting
its way further northwest - inland - from there while also
losing some of the intensity. This occurs along midlevel
frontogenesis with strong warm air advection and moisture influx
through the dendritic growth layer to cause additional
enhancement. Some potential for totals exceeding 2 feet in
Poconos-Southern Catskills. Models continue to be assessed and
forecast updates are in progress.

 

What areas constitute the SOUTHERN Catskills ? @snywx @Ericjcrash @crossbowftw3

Ulster/Sullivan.. 

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I stopped caring about local weather forecasters opinions 20 years ago when I figured out how to read models myself.

If the NAM is correct, there is going to be a ridiculous frontogen band over northern NJ into SE NY tomorrow into tomorrow night. Easily 18”+ I haven’t seen a depiction like that since January, 2016. It looks even more impressive than the March, 2018 blizzard verbatim 

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the NAM is correct, there is going to be a ridiculous frontogen band over northern NJ into SE NY tomorrow into tomorrow night. Easily 18”+ I haven’t seen a depiction like that since January, 2016. It looks even more impressive than the March, 2018 blizzard verbatim 

From your mouth to gods ears. That said....ya never know where the best banding is gonna set up, and I have been dry slotted so many times I can't tell ya. All that said...we are in the potential jackpot zone. yes! We must remain vigilant though. Things can still go wrong. 

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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the NAM is correct, there is going to be a ridiculous frontogen band over northern NJ into SE NY tomorrow into tomorrow night. Easily 18”+ I haven’t seen a depiction like that since January, 2016. It looks even more impressive than the March, 2018 blizzard verbatim 

Yeah, near whiteout conditions with 2-4” per hour rates and wind gusts over 50 mph. 
 

54798D74-C7FF-4389-9850-1C4DBC6EAD3F.thumb.png.1ac8e687aa63a712d838def4cf7e6b8a.png
D03A52DA-B365-458D-A60C-BDCA2A616DB7.thumb.png.b7a4b0a68c46d03a43d883ea9ca0a4cd.png

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

Yeah, near whiteout conditions with 2-4” per hour rates and wind gusts over 50 mph. 
 

54798D74-C7FF-4389-9850-1C4DBC6EAD3F.thumb.png.1ac8e687aa63a712d838def4cf7e6b8a.png
D03A52DA-B365-458D-A60C-BDCA2A616DB7.thumb.png.b7a4b0a68c46d03a43d883ea9ca0a4cd.png

 

If that’s correct, I feel bad for the guys who plow snow. It’s literally impossible to keep up with that, totally impossible. Hopefully people are smart and stay the hell off the roads so they don’t get stuck and add to the chaos that will be ensuing 

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2 minutes ago, sferic said:

So  WABC mets have to follow accuweather's script verbatim? They can't progosticate on their own?

...news 12 long island says 4-6 on ELI..STILL saying c/o to rain all of LI..even NYC...thats of course if their

future casts are right...

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