Ginx snewx

February the climo snow month

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I'm up for Morch. Dry and warm would be nice. Kind of a spring training for the Taunton boys to start worrying about water tables.

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Two storms that mostly miss to the south? Lock it in.

Those will be shredded pieces of shit by go time.

The 00z runs overnight show basically nothing of note here for the next 2 weeks. Maybe some cutter chances at most.

Given the efficacy of the models this season with respect to 2-week lead times, 'nothing of note' is probably an omen of epicosity incoming.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Deep cold and snow is done until next winter. Sad to see winter go.

After the surprise 1.5 I received last night (guessing it was a squall came home late), bringing me to well above average for a year that was supposed to be only 80% of average, I am ok for it to end. I just do not want 40s. Give me 50 plus for March!

41.5 on the year. Average here is 30 to 35 inches.

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Already 28⁰ off of a low of 8.8⁰, might be the coldest temperature until next winter...sun feels nice this morning despite the cold temps

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

50+ on Wednesday for the torch areas . Somewhere Tip is dreaming of a red nape 

Lol -

Speaking of which... that D8 and 9 of last night operational Euro would be humbling for its raw power in angel-weeping utopian appeal.  Going from a veritable Pandemic internment camp/ .. quasi lock-down, 32 F persistent shut out hell, merely make-believing the this winter is offering anything really interesting in terms of phenomenon to make eternity bearable ... to that ?  It would be both sensibly and psychologically abrupt.  The diaspora of the pressure cooking civility will be like that night the Pats won the Superbowl back in 2002 - the first one!  ... when society exploded upon the streets stripping shirts in throngs of exuberant cheer, "Free at last; thank god all mighty, we are free at last "  ( not to diminish the power of that borrowed turn of phrase! )

Limitations on that two day appeal are ...

A  ... it's not going to happen.  For one, it's too perfect at this range and the delicate metrics cannot be understated.  A fly fart would f* that all up... I mean, the set up could take place, but there are plenty of reasons to assume no. Spare the reader this time..heh.  I will say, it's almost like the balm and beauty variate of the D8 Euro bomb phantom scenario. Now ... I'm not entirely sure that dubious performance goes both ways, but I suspect in this case ..them two hard-on afternoon appeals are probably an artifact of the Euro being too exuberant with western low heights and SE ridge in the ultimate sense. 

B  ... snow pack?  I'm not a big fan of this offset factor.. It's "almost" ( but not entirely so  ) as meaningless as that good ole dependable rubery, 'the ground is too warm to accumulate'.  Nonetheless it may play some roll because the snow pack in the region is not local just to NE ...it's extending W and N.  There may be a magnitude threshold/ .. albedo for specifically solar capacity to heat - that's slightly different than capacity to transport warm air via advection.  Different physics for heating there..

Otherwise, wow ... vitals on the first blue-bird days of the year.  

1  ... timing is perfect.  Fropa is prior to 12z on D8 ... no clouds.

2  ... partially confirmed by the 700 mb RH, which shows a large regional plume of < 40% RH ...which from this range is a decent metric/proxy for inferring cloud seeding/coverage..It looks like open sky on this run for the 8th, and at least through 20Z on the 9th. So plenty of sun, light wind at a velocity that's placating back yard mixing and bulging BL to adiabic compression depths... It would probably be a MOS cold bust easily -

4  ... Wind direction ... ~ 290 to 310 deg, and non aggressive velocities, and nearly parallel to the thickness contours means the actual CAA isn't really happening despite the frontal passage.  That's typical of Pacific fronts... They are feeble for actual advection, such that other offsets like climbing sun and topography can easily offset.  That set up is that incarnate!

That looks like a 2-meter hover temperature of a 70 F ... I have seen it be 60 F over snow pack on Feb 10, in 540 thickness and open sun.   Oh MOS has 48 not even looking I can tell you.

You have a Pacific cool front toting modified early spring air across the NP and post that front, light NW flow with staggered 850 mb therms close to +5 C under a late February sun. That's usually a "d-slope dandy" recipe and they always bust MOS cool, particularly at this range - no hope or clue at machine numbers representing that 2-meter potential from here.  None...

Muse, that's the equivalent of the "Spring shot across the bow" for one. Even if that layout doesn't ultimately happen ...which I don't have very much confidence it will, just the fact that it's in the model means it is physically plausible, and has not been to day - sort of the same idea of 'bowing' to inevitability.   Will and I have mused the opposite affect in mid to late August going the other direction ... the day may still make 70 but you can tell ...soon as the sun kisses the western horizon you're already 64 and by 8 pm it 48 ... 42 at dawn with a couple of car tops next to the bogs with soft frost... next afternoon is 72 ..then 82 two days later.  It was Autumns shot across the bow - warning shot.

In the spirit of reciprocity it's kind of like the same idea?   Ha, two days later the GFS is trying to phantom a late season winter storm, too.  Perfect!

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17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Also loved avoiding back to back to back below average snowfall winter's. Last time that happened was late 90s (4 in a row)

Majority of forecasts for this winter were for below average snowfall and very warm temps.

Another bust by long range forecasters 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Majority of forecasts for this winter were for below average snowfall and very warm temps.

Another bust by long range forecasters 

Wasn’t December and January above normal temp wise? 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wasn’t December and January above normal temp wise? 

I doubt anyone called for the NAO and AO to be negative.  In my opinion, long range forecasting shouldn't be done because there are way too many factors to be considered.

 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

I doubt anyone called for the NAO and AO to be negative.  In my opinion, long range forecasting shouldn't be done because there are way too many factors to be considered.

 

:lol:   Lots of money involved and more often than not, you go AN you’ll win. Short term aspects are harder to predict but DJF again will average AN. Snowfall and things like AO and NAO are harder to predict, but there are regimes that favor the positive and negative versions of those.  I do agree the long term forecasts for snow were certainly much lower than reality.  

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It was nice to have a February that actually was wintry. While it got dicey here after 2/1, we’ve pretty much had snow OTG since late January.

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wasn’t December and January above normal temp wise? 

Just a quick look at the monthly averages and ORH is running like +1.8 since Dec 1 and BOS +0.3F

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2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Just a quick look at the monthly averages and ORH is running like +1.8 since Dec 1 and BOS +0.3F

One day maybe we’ll get BOS right.

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44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I doubt anyone called for the NAO and AO to be negative.  In my opinion, long range forecasting shouldn't be done because there are way too many factors to be considered.

 

You would not be correct in that assumption -

There were those of us engaged rather extensively in discussion late last summer into Autumn, ..regarding the solar minimum correlation with blockings/ -AO ...as well as the SSW contamination/ PV break-down potential.. All of which transpired rather nicely...

Not speaking for you ...but you may be referring to those who focused all their apples in the ENSO cart - but to that... I can only say caveat emptor ( ..that means 'buyer beware' ).  We also spent considerable time discussing growing bodies of research that offset ENSO as the primary driver ( assumption ) in the framework of governing the hemispheric eddy during winter months. 

Of those who were ENSO reliant - ...they may or may not have considered the polar indexes, I don't speak for them either.  But if that's what you saw, it is what it is.  

As far your "opinion" ...I won't try and change it, because I could tell you there is a train coming on the tracks your standing upon...you won't get off until you see the train. That's the way humans are, and therefore - at no fault to you per se ... - anything one says prooobably won't persuade your thinking one way or the other.   But allow me retort with my opinion:

....that makes me cringe - sorry, it does...

Who in the f would ever not try - that smacks as toe-the-line thinking. Adherence to traditional methods ... stuffing discovery and ( frankly ), as well as stopping what is necessarily a part the human condition, advancement.  We are the tech species - we evolved to this point via collective intelligentsia and application of that which was gleaned by "trying" - i.e., the discovery process - and it applies here to...

 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The EPS looks very boring. I would still watch the first few days of March. After that, might start moving on. Sorry Woilfie. Pattern looks quite mild after. 

It’s all good.  One more trip to N Maine in two weeks...it’ll be fine way up there. So I’m cool.

And I still believe There will be more snow for us in March in SNE.  And if not...it’s quite ok also. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One day maybe we’ll get BOS right.

Need another year or so of this to offset the previous warm bias, then we can fix it for real. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s all good.  One more trip to N Maine in two weeks...it’ll be fine way up there. So I’m cool.

And I still believe There will be more snow for us in March in SNE.  And if not...it’s quite ok also. 

There will be more snow after early March. Almost unheard of if there was literally nothing...at least over interior SNE. Might just be a couple nuisance scraps though, that’s the main question. If there another good sized storm left in this season or not....

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Need another year or so of this to offset the previous warm bias, then we can fix it for real. 

Need to sneak a BOS 49° in July before they fix it. 

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

After the surprise 1.5 I received last night (guessing it was a squall came home late), bringing me to well above average for a year that was supposed to be only 80% of average, I am ok for it to end. I just do not want 40s. Give me 50 plus for March!

41.5 on the year. Average here is 30 to 35 inches.

Always great to wake up to surprise snow

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2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

God, What I would do to have a warm March.

After this Covid hell that my whole family has right now, some nice weather would be welcome

Yeah ..the druthers talk - risky ...

But I hate April.  ...no no.. .I despite and loathe April climate - more succinct.   March is negotiable.  I either appreciated it for specter and awe, varying to hating and despising it just as much as April.

The teasing sun angle that becomes more like harassment after the 15th ... gets irking really quick when there's no interesting meteorology to pass the time with, yet it may remain putrid outside. The impetus there being ... normally when one senses the vibrant aura sol's return, they want to be outside, but can't because of the latter.   But, if there's big deal storm, I'm happy to cash in my hypocrisy chips smugly join in like I love it :)

April?  nope ... I don't give a f*   Which is why I can so relate to the adage,  "April is the cruelest month" - it really can be excruciating. 

I think in my life 1/5th were personally, subjectively decent.  And there's no way to make an objective scalar perspective on that - because of that pesky word: "perspective" - to each his or her own.   There are folks that - I believe - have that negative ( or anti ) S.A.D.  condition that effects some 15% of the population.  It's truly  a condition, however lesser ubiquitously known.  It is recognize by the psychobabble community, too.  For these 'opposite' folk the thought of summer brings them down. Bright sun... warmth?  These sensible baths do not inspire soothing sentiment inside of them. Just opposite actually,  equally triggered ... just like the other end's 15% that experience gloom when the days dim heading into Autumn.  If one is at either end in their 15% "dysfunctionality" ... can't you see how both get f'ed?  I mean, those who need the sun get bum bruised by endless cloud mank, and those that need the winter they are leaving behind, so so without choice.  Both sides now, as Judy Collins once said.

I "think" I am neither...?  More among the bell curve of society. Here in the majority we tend to be more modestly "mooded" by these seasonal aspects, if at all. 

S.A.D. in either direction is technically managing depression - I'm not a shrink... and having brought this subject matter to light in this particular social media has resulted in flame throwing in the past ( probably because it is not only on point, it touches a true nerve...).   But, I can turn the pen on the matter for having lived and suffered by humanity's various vicissitudes for ah ...so many decades heh. 

Experience is a good teacher.  I suspect some of the social media winter pirates in here are at least, leaning toward the summer, - S.A.D. variant... 

But, regardless of who we are... being cooped up with Pandemic distancing shit while the days cold out in people's yards... Not sure it is a S.A.D. issue one way or the other, because that is a directly imposing, miserable constraint on ones existentialism - so protracting a cold March is loathsome for a different set of reason perhaps.   

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

:lol:   Lots of money involved and more often than not, you go AN you’ll win. Short term aspects are harder to predict but DJF again will average AN. Snowfall and things like AO and NAO are harder to predict, but there are regimes that favor the positive and negative versions of those.  I do agree the long term forecasts for snow were certainly much lower than reality.  

Strongly agree that long range forecasts should hedge AN until proven otherwise. The world is a lot warmer than it used to be. Next year is going to be my first official winter forecast, I have already shifted my focus from this winter to next winters atmospheric drivers. My official winter forecast will be released in November 2021.

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9 minutes ago, George001 said:

Strongly agree that long range forecasts should hedge AN until proven otherwise. The world is a lot warmer than it used to be. Next year is going to be my first official winter forecast, I have already shifted my focus from this winter to next winters atmospheric drivers. My official winter forecast will be released in November 2021.

How many yards for mby?

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Just now, Hoth said:

How many yards for mby?

Right now I’m leaning big NYC north, because I believe there will be a record strong La Niña next year that will overwhelm and dominate the pattern (strength exceeding -2 degrees Celsius on both the ONI and MEI chart). I posted my reasoning behind why I believe we are going to have a record strong La Niña next winter, however it is WAY too early and if my idea about the enso state is wrong then I am going to have to adjust my preliminary thoughts. This is why I’m not planning on writing up my forecast until November.

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11 minutes ago, George001 said:

Right now I’m leaning big NYC north, because I believe there will be a record strong La Niña next year that will overwhelm and dominate the pattern (strength exceeding -2 degrees Celsius on both the ONI and MEI chart). I posted my reasoning behind why I believe we are going to have a record strong La Niña next winter, however it is WAY too early and if my idea about the enso state is wrong then I am going to have to adjust my preliminary thoughts. This is why I’m not planning on writing up my forecast until November.

If we get a record strong nina next year after this years robust nina it typically means major major dead ratter next winter.

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