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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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24 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Euro not showing much. Just not much precip. Also may be a tad warmer, but it's mostly noise/lack of precip problem.

We’re toast for both storms lol imagine that 

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CWG issued their forecast map. With their absurd boom bust potential included theres 0 chance of being wrong. Factoring in boom bust, im supposed to see 0-3".

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LOL this is so perfect from Mount Holly. Not only a great and accurate description of this "event", but also in a larger sense how everything seems to come together and conspires to prevent it from snowing here. Uncanny.

A long duration but mostly low impact weather system is expected for Monday night through Tuesday night. Low pressure tracking out of the southern Plains will steadily fill in and occlude as upper level support diminishes, while a weak secondary coastal wave develops south of Delmarva. The result will be an increasingly elongated but poorly organized field of precipitation over the eastern half of the country, which will bring some unsettled weather to our area. Limiting factors with this system are plentiful. Dynamically, most of our precipitation Monday night into Tuesday will be warm advection driven as the primary low tracks to our west. However, this lift source will be weakening as the system becomes more elongated and fractured. The mid level shortwave trailing the surface low will be deamplifying as it runs into ridging in place over the East. This ridging will also prevent the developing coastal wave from achieving any kind of coherent organization even as the primary low weakens. The result is a strung out mess both at the surface and aloft. In addition to weakening upper support, low level dry air will be plentiful at the onset with Canadian high pressure in place well to the north. This will erode the leading edge of the precipitation shield, and lead to a very slow northeastward advance of precipitation Monday night.

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1 minute ago, snowfan said:

CWG issued their forecast map. With their absurd boom bust potential included theres 0 chance of being wrong. Factoring in boom bust, im supposed to see 0-3".

Was this threat ever supposed to be warning level snow? I know some runs were showing a lot of precip buts it’s drying up closer to game time. 0-3 is a good forecast IMO 

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Just now, CAPE said:

LOL this is so perfect from Mount Holly. Not only a great and accurate description of this "event", but also in a larger sense how everything seems to come together and conspires to prevent it from snowing here. Uncanny.

A long duration but mostly low impact weather system is expected for Monday night through Tuesday night. Low pressure tracking out of the southern Plains will steadily fill in and occlude as upper level support diminishes, while a weak secondary coastal wave develops south of Delmarva. The result will be an increasingly elongated but poorly organized field of precipitation over the eastern half of the country, which will bring some unsettled weather to our area. Limiting factors with this system are plentiful. Dynamically, most of our precipitation Monday night into Tuesday will be warm advection driven as the primary low tracks to our west. However, this lift source will be weakening as the system becomes more elongated and fractured. The mid level shortwave trailing the surface low will be deamplifying as it runs into ridging in place over the East. This ridging will also prevent the developing coastal wave from achieving any kind of coherent organization even as the primary low weakens. The result is a strung out mess both at the surface and aloft. In addition to weakening upper support, low level dry air will be plentiful at the onset with Canadian high pressure in place well to the north. This will erode the leading edge of the precipitation shield, and lead to a very slow northeastward advance of precipitation Monday night.

Yeah it’s really nicely detailed in how we fail lol 

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18z 12k Nam holds for a decent front end thump of snow for areas DC north.

Side note: I keep going back and forth on whether or not to hook up my plow for this event. I guess I'll do it just to be safe. 

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

18z 12k Nam holds for a decent front end thump of snow for areas DC north. 

I am going to go out on a limb and suggest it is overdoing the intensity of the precip on the front end just a tad. I know.. that would be very un-NAM like.

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I’m looking forward to my 3-5 inches the nam has promised me tomorrow. 

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14 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

18z 12k Nam holds for a decent front end thump of snow for areas DC north.

Side note: I keep going back and forth on weather or not to hook up my plow for this event. I guess I'll do it just to be safe. 

Why set up plow...do you also own a pothole repair company?

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Nam has low dews leading up to precip start for  north of i70 esp N.Md over to ne Md . Nice temp drop if we can get precip up here . I figured nams would juice up a bit . Could be a nice storm tomorrow evening. 

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

3km NAM is in decent agreement with is coarser brother. Has mini snow lollis and dead spots in between lol.

Since it has my yard in a lolli i am gonna hug it. :wub:

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3 minutes ago, NoVaWx said:

DAD64CE3-8D1B-47A6-AA7B-33266B62F7B0.png

NAM—please be right for the first time ever. 
 

eta: ...for the first time since the creation of (wo)man. 

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Just now, Scraff said:

NAM—please be right for the first time ever. 

I mean, it is in it's wheelhouse....

Anything over an inch would be a win for this one imo. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Is that model programmed to try and determine the weather for each square foot?

Its a CAM. Good for pinpointing convection(theoretically), but there ain't none of that with this system lol.

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Both the 3k and 12k are hinting at some pretty heavy bands moving from west to east. I'd imagine if someone can manage to get under one of those, rates would be pretty fun and this could be an over-performer  for someone. 

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