WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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3 hours ago, frd said:

Miller A Baby 

:guitar:

:mapsnow:

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh198-282.gif

Kind of like the bomb cyclone track but further west.

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9 minutes ago, SteveRDU said:

Kind of like the bomb cyclone track but further west.

Hopefully the period mid month and beyond delivers for us in the coastal plain. 

I don't want to have to chase at Dewey Beach,  however, if I did I get a Fractured prune donut, yum yum, but I digress,  I want Middletown buried !   :mapsnow:

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50 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

94?

The late January mixed storm literally missed my yard by like 20 miles with all snow . 18" fell just north while I got 5-6 inches of heavy sleet . The other 2 big hits were zrain and sleet combos in Westminster at the time . There was a couple snow hits too just can't remember totals. 

Yea but due to that 6” of sleet there was snowcover until mid March straight through. I was in northern VA and we mostly had bare ground all winter as it was mostly just freezing rain down there. We did get a 3” sleet storm in Feb that I think we like 8” of snow/sleet up here. 

ETA: 1994 was really only about avg snowfall up here (lots of mixed storms) but it was so cold it built up a 13” glacier snowpack and the coop up the road in Miller’s reported snowcover from the January 4 coastal that ended as 4” of snow until March 20th. Even absent a big all Snow event or above normal snowfall that would rank pretty high imo. Time with snowcover on the ground is probably the number 1 thing in my book. I dont know why. It’s probably some defect. But I just feel better when there is snow on the ground in winter. 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

Hopefully the period mid month and beyond delivers for us in the coastal plain. 

I don't want to have to chase at Dewey Beach,  however, if I did I get a Fractured prune donut, yum yum, but I digress,  I want Middletown buried !   :mapsnow:

I’ll be in bethany at that time, come on down and party, the beach needs a little liveliness this time of year.

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I was in New York for ‘15, and I’m 32, but that was the coldest winter I’ve ever experienced. Weeks of highs not breaking 25 and nearly a whole week below 20. Unbelievable. 

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but due to that 6” of sleet there was snowcover until mid March straight through. I was in northern VA and we mostly had bare ground all winter as it was mostly just freezing rain down there. We did get a 3” sleet storm in Feb that I think we like 8” of snow/sleet up here. 

ETA: 1994 was really only about avg snowfall up here (lots of mixed storms) but it was so cold it built up a 13” glacier snowpack and the coop up the road in Miller’s reported snowcover from the January 4 coastal that ended as 4” of snow until March 20th. Even absent a big all Snow event or above normal snowfall that would rank pretty high imo. Time with snowcover on the ground is probably the number 1 thing in my book. I dont know why. It’s probably some defect. But I just feel better when there is snow on the ground in winter. 

I thought there was a decent  hit or 2 mixed in 

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28 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I was in New York for ‘15, and I’m 32, but that was the coldest winter I’ve ever experienced. Weeks of highs not breaking 25 and nearly a whole week below 20. Unbelievable. 

Several low mid teen highs here . 

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Why does everyone reference 1985 so much. I was too young to remember but looking at local records it was one of the least snowy winters ever here. Yet people bring it up a lot. 

85 was epic cold. That and 1994 are my record low of -6. Inauguration Day was 11F at the time for it, I think DCA was 14 for a high, I was 9F

1994 just incredibly cold in afternoon with falling afternoon temperatures and 1 at 6pm. Ice storms ar 22F and repeated bitter cold shots 

1982 epic back to back Cold Sundays.

1977 for that 35 day period, I think we hit 43 one day and then constant teens and 20’s  for highs. 

Some other great ones in 78 and 79 and this century also but those stand out to me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm not buying the cutter solution with no frozen day 5/6 . I think it trends south with a at minimal front end for us .

If the PV dumps west initially it could. But models are going to struggle with this pattern. A lot of extreme gradients and potential energy for them to resolve. 

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The gfs 500mb comparing 18z run and 00z aren't even in the same galaxy next week

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Gfs doesn’t split the PV as much as previous runs.  Parks it right over just north of the Great Lakes.  Looks pretty primed for a storm post 180 as wentz has been point out.

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14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

No surprise to me given the bit more favorable hieghts out ahead per 18z guidance.  Still work needed but a baby  step 

CMC is a bit NW too. Seems like the bleeding southeast has eased a bit, but at least we're not out of the game based on guidance being somewhat close.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like the west split pv dump was a blip . Guidance bouncing back colder . 

Yeah they do look better. My eyes are still recovering from looking at 12z runs.  Hopefully they were a hiccup.

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Double what 18z showed FWIW... I think 18z GEFS showed 6 hits... 00z looks like 13 hits, but 2 (p02 and p13) I'm guessing either came through with snow for us the prior 6 hours or they are actually that far NW in their track

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Double what 18z showed FWIW... I think 18z GEFS showed 6 hits... 00z looks like 13 hits, but 2 (p02 and p13) I'm guessing either came through with snow for us the prior 6 hours or they are actually that far NW in their track

If there is one model trend we can count on, it’s the GFS bumping northward/northwestward in the last 72 hours of a storm. It happens every single time.
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15 minutes ago, yoda said:

Double what 18z showed FWIW... I think 18z GEFS showed 6 hits... 00z looks like 13 hits, but 2 (p02 and p13) I'm guessing either came through with snow for us the prior 6 hours or they are actually that far NW in their track

2 was a glancing hit (much better for northern and western areas) and 13 was indeed a good hit.  

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