• Member Statistics

    16,623
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    friday
    Newest Member
    friday
    Joined
WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

Recommended Posts

I waited hoping someone else would do it. We have to get this curse off of us. Euro coming in an hour so let’s start here.

Mods please pin. Thanks

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LFG.

The 28th storm is looking good so far.  Nice H pressing down from Canada.  Solid confluence.  Big area of precip over TX blossoming.  

Oof, looks like it'll be OTS..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m gonna hang my hat on the fact that the pattern looks good. Mainly because that’s the only think I can hang it on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, stormtracker said:

exasperating.   I'm gonna hand in there tho, but it looks like the threat late week is starting to fall apart.

def hand in there.  Use both hands if needed

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

LFG.

The 28th storm is looking good so far.  Nice H pressing down from Canada.  Solid confluence.  Big area of precip over TX blossoming.  

Oof, looks like it'll be OTS..

we go from cutter to southern sliders and back to cutters. oy man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

LFG.

The 28th storm is looking good so far.  Nice H pressing down from Canada.  Solid confluence.  Big area of precip over TX blossoming.  

Oof, looks like it'll be OTS..

I'm liking the Valentines day storm - better confluence and more amped

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

exasperating.   I'm gonna hand in there tho, but it looks like the threat late week is starting to fall apart.

sad how we just dimsiss the euro now when it gives us snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

 

There is no cold in the pattern initially. The response to the EPO going up will initially be to dump the trough and cold into the west. Think wave dynamics. See saw. If there is no cold in front of that...what’s the response in the east going to be?  I can totally see a ridge popping initially. Could the block fight it off...maybe. But the thing is the block effects things AFTER not before. There is a lag.  Loop the n hemisphere h5 progression on the gfs. The block is just getting into a truly favorable location around day  7. By then the damage is done. The trough is dumping west and the ridge is going up because the block wasn’t there a few days earlier to effect the flow yet!  If there was more cold in front and the blocking was already established we would see a more broad elongated trough but without..the trough/ridge makes sense. Now..again the blocking could suppress the track enough. I’m not tossing the day 6-10 period. But this was why I said yesterday AFTER that is when I think the progression favors us more.  Once the Rex block retrogrades west of Greenland it will start to exert itself on the flow. The cold out west will bleed east under the block. That trough will be forced to spread and broaden. And frankly it’s an odd combo that has huge upside. That block location in a different pac would actually be way too suppressive. That’s a crazy southwest NAO Rex block with big 50/50 vortex signature and a displaced TPV under it.  That could just be super cold/dry. But the western trough will try to cut storms west of us. But at some point as more cold bleeds east and the block retrogrades a “oh no you dont” wall will go up and a storm coming from the SW with gulf moisture trying to cut will be blocked and forced under. And those our “fun”. That’s still how I see this potentially playing out. But the balance between cold west/east and block location won’t be perfect for that until closer to the end of January according to the current progression and timing. 

Hope it’s not too presumptuous of me but bringing this over from the old thread...

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

exasperating.   I'm gonna hand in there tho, but it looks like the threat late week is starting to fall apart.

Just think - we only needed it to hold together for another 60 runs

  • Haha 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m gonna hang my hat on the fact that the pattern looks good. Mainly because that’s the only think I can hang it on.

The block is working wonders on blocking snow and cold.. thats about it

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Yeoman said:

The block is working wonders on blocking snow and cold.. thats about it

Always good to declare a block a fail 7 days before it starts. 

  • Like 4
  • Haha 3
  • Confused 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

The block is working wonders on blocking snow and cold.. thats about it

this would of been a HECS but it only goes out to 384 and as usual, it stops right before it hits us

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, psuhoffman said:

Always good to declare a block a fail 7 days before it starts. 

oh really...we wont have a block till 7 days from now? I thought we had a block LOL

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ji said:

oh really...we wont have a block till 7 days from now? I thought we had a block LOL

We have a -AO. We have an east based -NAO ridge before that. The Rex block doesn’t form and retrograde to a spot that can offset the pacific until day 7 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Ji said:

sad how we just dimsiss the euro now when it gives us snow

1. Does the model show snow?  If yes, go to 2.  If no, go to 3.  
 

2. Is the model the Euro?  If yes, go to 4.  If no, go to 5. 
 

3. It’s right.  
 

4. Is the model supported by 90% of ensembles and at least 2 other major models?  If yes, go to 6.  If no, go to 7. 
 

5. It’s wrong. 
 

6. Is the model within 48 hours of the event?  If yes, go to 8.  If no, go to 9. 
 

7. It’s wrong. 
 

8. It’s wrong. 
 

9. It’s wrong. 

  • Like 4
  • Haha 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m really struggling with the incredible lack of cold air. I mean look at the para GFS D9-10.  We get 516dm thicknesses, -10 to -15C 850 temps, and at the surface we get low temps in the mid 20s. Normal or above normal for late January! 

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m really struggling with the incredible lack of cold air. I mean look at the para GFS D9-10.  We get 516dm thicknesses, -10 to -15C 850 temps, and at the surface we get low temps in the mid 20s. Normal or above normal for late January! 

Wonder the cause?  Incredible if you ask me.  And,  a little scary, possibly  source region decay. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well technically aren’t higher heights in the northern lats indicative of above normal  temps there? And we have those all across the higher lats so there is less cold to be had. Seems logical to me and would indicate that too much blocking there is the other side of the sword.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Ji said:

sad how we just dimsiss the euro now when it gives us snow

When the euro is rain/miss and the others show snow you bet your ass the others would cave. Vice versa. It’s uncanny, but I’m hanging in there. The timing of both the streams is terrible this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1748800.thumb.png.c8e96e93a58fee0d321452369711f630.png

Posting this for reference to check in 5 days, but the GEFS keeps muting any cold within day 10. Makes sense right now given no EPO and a fight between the western trough and the -NAO, but here, given that we'll have the EPO to help bleed the cold in, if this look gets muted and warms us up DESPITE some PAC help.. then yeah we're probably screwed. Also a check to see if the progression keeps getting delayed..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Is this not technically blocking

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_2.png

It’s a -AO/NAO. It’s not a bad pattern. But the pac is offsetting it. It still does force that wave further east then we would see without it. It secondaries. But can’t save us. There is no antecedent cold. If there was that pattern would be fine. We can cry about the fact that a pretty darn good pattern isn’t doing a freaking thing for us and I’m with you. It’s crazy. It’s scary. But what I’m saying is obviously a simply -AO isn’t doing it. If we need to step it up the true Rex block that can exert a lot of pressure on the upstream flow doesn’t kick in until day 7/8. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are pretty much in a "close the blinds" pattern till at least Jan 21st IMO.  As others have mentioned above, its going to take a little bit for the Rex Block to get into the place where we would like to see it at and get the Pacific to calm down.  If you are expecting the models to have the right idea on when we are going to get snow... forget it.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a -AO/NAO. It’s not a bad pattern. But the pac is offsetting it. It still does force that wave further east then we would see without it. It secondaries. But can’t save us. There is no antecedent cold. If there was that pattern would be fine. We can cry about the fact that a pretty darn good pattern isn’t doing a freaking thing for us and I’m with you. It’s crazy. It’s scary. But what I’m saying is obviously a simply -AO isn’t doing it. If we need to step it up the true Rex block that can exert a lot of pressure on the upstream flow doesn’t kick in until day 7/8. 

Got it. Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1748800.thumb.png.c8e96e93a58fee0d321452369711f630.png

Posting this for reference to check in 5 days, but the GEFS keeps muting any cold within day 10. Makes sense right now given no EPO and a fight between the western trough and the -NAO, but here, given that we'll have the EPO to help bleed the cold in, if this look gets muted and warms us up DESPITE some PAC help.. then yeah we're probably screwed. Also a check to see if the progression keeps getting delayed..

The gfs will always over do cold past about day 7. That is the most consistent thing that model does.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Def moving the SW s/w energy out at 144 on 12z EURO... its at least 200 miles further northeast comparing to the 00z run at 156

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.