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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Remember when models showed a snowstorm for today just 1 week ago?

10 days ago it was.

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34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When was the last time you saw my “head”?

This could go to a very bad place.......................:lol:.

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3 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Nice donut hole

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Not worth the investment, We will be waiting until Feb for anything here if at all.

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

He knows people are getting annoyed :lol:

"Maybe I am alone but I remain intrigued by yet more predicted disruptions to the #PolarVortex."

This guy is going to be rambling about splitting daughters and cold air pooling just 20 days away, from a remote nursing him in July.

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12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not worth the investment, We will be waiting until Feb for anything here if at all.

C'mon, you're killing me. Every time I think there's hope, it's not there. Two weeks ago I was joking to myself how it would be really bad, but somewhat funny if we didn't get anything till Feb, now it looks like a reality.

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Just now, Lava Rock said:

C'mon, you're killing me. Every time I think there's hope, it's not there. Two weeks ago I was joking to myself how it would be really bad, but somewhat funny if we didn't get anything till Feb, now it looks like a reality.

I would not get invested for the 26th, That looks to stay south of here as well as the 29th.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, even here....I'm convinced that at least one will whiff...maybe like a pike south deal, which is a whiff for me.

Maybe even further south then there, I'm done with looking at 7-10 days threats.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He knows people are getting annoyed :lol:

"Maybe I am alone but I remain intrigued by yet more predicted disruptions to the #PolarVortex."

This guy is going to be rambling about splitting daughters and cold air pooling just 20 days away, from a remote nursing him in July.

I do like you keep him on his toes on twitter! lmao he will block you soon! lol

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8 minutes ago, 512high said:

I do like you keep him on his toes on twitter! lmao he will block you soon! lol

I can't believe how unknowledgeable and lackadaisical he is about routine ENSO climo. I asked him to name all of the mod la nina events that had a BIG February or March in the Boston area...

."2018, I am sure there are plenty more".

2018 was clearly weak....if there are plenty, list away.....

"2011 was a great season, and 2001 had a big March storm"

2011 had a big JANUARY, and then quieted down. 2001 was clearly weak (links CPC historical ONI data)

"1996 was a very busy season, I'm sure there are many more"

1996 was clearly weak

"(apparently goes to bed)".

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't believe who unknowledgeable and lackadaisical he is about routine ENSO climo. I asked him to name all of the mod la nina events that had a BIG February or March in the Boston area...."2018, I am sure there are plenty more". 2018 was clearly weak....if there are plenty, list away.....

"2018 was a great season, and 2001 had a big March storm"

2011 had a big JANUARY, and then quieted down. 2001 was clearly weak (links CPC historical ONI data)

"1996 was a very busy season, I'm sure there are many more"

1996 was clearly weak

"(apparently goes to bed)".

1956 was a pretty good Feb, esp north of pike....but not blockbuster. Obviously March was a blockbuster.

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We've been lacking a solid baroclinic zone.  Maybe this upcoming period can give us that which would present better chances of frozen precip in SNE.

Does this work?

gfs_Td2m_neus_27.png

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Tempering the elation with a dose of objectivity ... 

Keep in mind, there is a propensity going back months ... to consummately correct all deep ranged middel to extended time frame features, downward in amplitude as those come into any sort of consensus - interestingly, right around the time ranges when confidence for actually being real, emerges ..roughly 120 hrs give or take a few cycles.  Jan 26 just did this ...or is doing so.. Jan 29 most likely will as well. 

We've been through three pretty distinctly different pattern flavors: whatever drove Dec 17; that weird interlude that was really the absence of a pattern being a pattern in itself; now ( weird blocking + under ripped by a velocity surplus hemisphere + a PNA that is negative)/ 3 = N/S .

So what that implies is that regardless of these patterns, the models still do this larger than life --> no ...the celebrity's human like the rest of us reality dosing along their management of features.  And it is a behavior owned by all guidance ...UKMET to Euro ...GGEM and GFS ... tea-leafs.  Seems to want to argue that it's just in the state-of-the-art of the technological ambit.  I remember years where this was not so coherently annoying  though ...so it's interesting.

I am not sure why. Fun metaphor: The moon rising over the horizon. Optically, the image distorts by the atmosphere into looking quite foreboding .. as though it were actually going to crash into the Earth in a celestial doomsday event ...  It's almost like the models see things hugely as they are coming over the distant horizon ranges ...

In any case, this pattern does not lend to skill and it never has...as was hammered last week.  That is still the case. So, putting that facet together with the aforementioned correction tendency, ...ugh - good luck. 

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23 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

not sure if posted, hopefully we get that soon.

 

When I was on vacation in Alaska I visited a gold mining place that taught you how to pan for gold and they had a room that they kept at -50 so you could experience what the miners did in the Yukon. Minus 50 hurts. I've experienced minus 35 once and that hurt right to your bones.

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Oh ...it'll resume - 

This is how Gaia turns up the oven to the "Clean" setting on humanity.  By obfuscating the direction of climate change with offset bullshit like this to instill doubt, people relax, and then she cooks us to our demise - eradication succeeds.  Think 'toads in a pan of water slowly raised to boil,' in spite of all our conceits - nice.  

That Siberian cold is probably being manufactured out of the same ailing global circulation's insidious expressions of climate imperiled ...the same one that brought 300" of snow to Japan in 5 minutes last month ( sarcasm but whatever that was...)

It's plausible if not probable that the entire hemisphere and the arrival of these circumstances et al are caused by a competing total systemic forces - GW concurrent when there's an attempt to "negatize the polar index" contributions to the total circulation.  In fact, the speedy flow for a decade and counting is related; it's like this year is that, on steroids now that blocking is intruding into the affairs.   It's a bizarre hemisphere to see blocking nodes set over top of 6 to 9 contoured height-lined westerly jet streams.  That latter is not conducive to the former - 

I just think we are dealing with uniqueness that has never happened.  And there may be times in the 300 years of awareness/ climo reconstruction efforts that bear some resemblance, but not the same in the absolute sense ...and it's in this latter sense that we are suffering for what manifests out of it. So some out-of-box philosophy there ..sure... 

But, in more practical terms, that Siberian depth is really just another expression of the proven right, "extremes" that the climate modeling has already been proven correct about. 

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