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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Good idea. Just as things may be waking up..or at least something to track he drops crap like that

This is the complete opposite of last winter. Looking at h5, you’d think we’re snowing often but as Will said, we’ve been ‘unlucky’. I think that changes as we close out the month and into Feb, fwiw. 

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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So 26th and 28thish or so have legs. The risk for both is suppression, but anything goes this far out.

Yes I hate to say this but I am getting a Feb 94 vibe. Some will hold me to it. I blew the 10 11 vibe, looked similar in early Jan but alas. Anyways I fully expect a lot of chances coming up.

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43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So 26th and 28thish or so have legs. The risk for both is suppression, but anything goes this far out.

Completely agree.

The random OP cutter runs are fraudulent.

For the folks like @Damage In Tolland who  are frustrated, and favor persistence.....you need a smoking gun to buy into change.  I think the elevating PNA next week is it.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes I hate to say this but I am getting a Feb 94 vibe. Some will hold me to it. I blew the 10 11 vibe, looked similar in early Jan but alas. Anyways I fully expect a lot of chances coming up.

I am a lot more optimistic for the first week or two of Feb, so hopefully our original ideas can meet in the middle and salvage a decent winter.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes I hate to say this but I am getting a Feb 94 vibe. Some will hold me to it. I blew the 10 11 vibe, looked similar in early Jan but alas. Anyways I fully expect a lot of chances coming up.

You can run back the same Jan next season and with suttle nuances like spacing of vorts, etc, we’d be pretty snowy. I think your home run call was ballsy (which I like) but it also was not that far off from a big picture perspective. I know the Icey1929 types would laugh but us vets know it to be true.

Anyway, I agree...good times ahead.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You can run back the same Jan next season and with suttle nuances like spacing of vorts, etc, we’d be pretty snowy. I think your home run call was ballsy (which I like) but it also was not that far off. I know the Icey1929 types would laugh but us vets know it to be true.

Anyway, I agree...good times ahead.

I get what you mean, but I think Steve would tell you himself that if you call for a top 5 snowy month, and its nearly snowless.....its a whiff. Some busted calls are more egregious than others, and he certainly correctly identified a decent look this month.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

50mb vortex splits again. Similar to this recent one. 

 

image.png.1a82d465d1b58f57ad964bae32948c89.png

You seem to have a better mastery of the strat stuff than I do...theoretically, given the 20 day lag, etc...that could protract blocking through all of Feb, no?

That would likely take an exotically warm Feb off of the table...worst case is probably like December, given the EPO should still crap out.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You seem to have a better mastery of the strat stuff than I do...theoretically, given the 20 day lag, etc...that could protract blocking through all of Feb, no?

That would likely take an exotically warm Feb off of the table...worst case is probably like December, given the EPO should still crap out.

This is what the weeklies were showing 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You seem to have a better mastery of the strat stuff than I do...theoretically, given the 20 day lag, etc...that could protract blocking through all of Feb, no?

That would take an exotically warm Feb off of the table.

Ha, you are probably too kind with that, just posting the EPS. If the model is correct and there isn't some sort of MUO destructive interference, maybe it does make more of a fun Feb? Perhaps that is what the weeklies were trying to say. It's something I'll keep an eye on going forward. I'm not really sure what to think.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ha, you are probably too kind with that, just posting the EPS. If the model is correct and there isn't some sort of MUO destructive interference, maybe it does make more of a fun Feb? Perhaps that is what the weeklies were trying to say. It's something I'll keep an eye on going forward. I'm not really sure what to think.

One thing I have noticed about SSW is that they tend to stagnate the MJO in whatever phases it was in at the onset....this is what ruined 2018-2019, and made that season look like a la nina during what should have been a prime time of a prolific, weak,  modoki el nino season. That has also happened this season with the first SSW, however, I think the MJO is finally staggering into more favorable phases should this SSW succeed. 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If true we go deep into March with favorable chances

March has always been a wild card in my mind....my composite had tremendous March blocking, but I wussed out in the narrative partly because of both the magnitude of la nina/QBO, and the recent propensity for blocking to wait until spring to (re)emerge.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When was the last time you saw my “head”?

Been a few years, but to my knowledge, male pattern baldness usually doesn't reverse course without some aggressive intervention. I guess we can surmise what took place if we see head a full of curly cues on your grape once we all gtg after the pandemic.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone knows my stance on these meteorological unicorns, but all three major ensemble clusters look as though they are trying to signal some type of norlun/inverted trough like feature over eastern MA extending from that 1/26 graze job.

 

This demands a Jimmy post.   We here at AMWX.com believe Jimmy is the Norlun expert and look forward to his analysis of the upcoming grave situation. 

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