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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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For those of us in the Triad, out of the ICON, RDPS, NAM 12k, and NAM 3k, the one with the least amount of ice is the NAM 3k and it has .45" of freezing rain by 7am Thursday morning.  If other models tonight show the same/similar, it might be time to have a game plan for power outages. Saving grace could be sleet, rates so heavy that much of it doesn't accumulate, Miller B with a dry slot, or maybe the temps are modeled a couple of degrees too low.

TW

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2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

For those of us in the Triad, out of the ICON, RDPS, NAM 12k, and NAM 3k, the one with the least amount of ice is the NAM 3k and it has .45" of freezing rain by 7am Thursday morning.  If other models tonight show the same/similar, it might be time to have a game plan for power outages. Saving grace could be sleet, rates so heavy that much of it doesn't accumulate, Miller B with a dry slot, or maybe the temps are modeled a couple of degrees too low.

TW

Or that the precip is too heavy for rapid ice accruals.  If it isnt sleet, pray for heavier downpours for most of the event.

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35 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Dear lord. That thing is trying to just end all of Civilization. What is the record for recorded ice accrual in Nc?

It may not have been a record, but the ice storm that occurred February 10-11,1994 had some pretty impressive accumulations of ice in NC. It was by far the worst ice storm I ever experienced. In my weather journal I recorded two inches of snow/sleet and 1 1/4" of ice accrual. I was without power for nine days.  There were higher amounts of ice reported across the state (Up to 2") and many went without power longer than I did. 

Here's a link to a short summary of that event: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=132

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4 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

It may not have been a record, but the ice storm that occurred February 10-11,1994 had some pretty impressive accumulations of ice in NC. It was by far the worst ice storm I ever experienced. In my weather journal I recorded two inches of snow/sleet and 1 1/4" of ice accrual. I was without power for nine days.  There were higher amounts of ice reported across the state (Up to 2") and many went without power longer than I did. 

Here's a link to a short summary of that event: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=132

I remember this storm! I believe that's when Neil Bonnett was killed at Daytona. We were hit hard in Catawba County as well.

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7 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

It may not have been a record, but the ice storm that occurred February 10-11,1994 had some pretty impressive accumulations of ice in NC. It was by far the worst ice storm I ever experienced. In my weather journal I recorded two inches of snow/sleet and 1 1/4" of ice accrual. I was without power for nine days.  There were higher amounts of ice reported across the state (Up to 2") and many went without power longer than I did. 

Here's a link to a short summary of that event: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=132

I lived in ATL that year and was spared the mayhem, but that just seems impossible to get 2" of ice to accrue on anything.  The extreme of extremes.  The amount of damage that would be done would be unimagineable.

Dont wish for ice storms folks.

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2 hours ago, Tullioz said:

It may not have been a record, but the ice storm that occurred February 10-11,1994 had some pretty impressive accumulations of ice in NC. It was by far the worst ice storm I ever experienced. In my weather journal I recorded two inches of snow/sleet and 1 1/4" of ice accrual. I was without power for nine days.  There were higher amounts of ice reported across the state (Up to 2") and many went without power longer than I did. 

Here's a link to a short summary of that event: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=132

That ice storm was the bench mark for me in Rutherford county. 5-6 inches of sleet. Never seen it sleet so hard in my life. Yes there was 2 inches accumulated ice on everything, no power for 10 days. No school for 2 1/2 weeks. Barely above freezing the next 10 days with lows in the single digits and teens at night. Everything was a skating rink outside. Secondary roads were a thick 1-2 inch sheet of ice for 2 weeks. Never forget that ice storm. That one was the big dog around here for Ice Storms

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We had to evacuate our house Sunday due to carbon monoxide from our kerosene heater Sunday. Our carbon monoxide detector saved our life. So seeing the words that ice may cause damage gives me a bit of anxiety because I'm scared to use our kerosene heater now if we lose power. 

91E251FD-7609-439D-9707-2F3A7DC05A9A.jpeg

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Go ahead and have the power company on speed dial because Thursday isn’t looking so good.

From RAH early this morning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
357 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

NCZ007-021-022-162100-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0002.210218T0500Z-210219T0500Z/
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-
Including the cities of Roxboro, Winston-Salem, Greensboro,
and High Point
357 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of at
  least one quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Person, Forsyth and Guilford Counties.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
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2 hours ago, gritsnc said:

We had to evacuate our house Sunday due to carbon monoxide from our kerosene heater Sunday. Our carbon monoxide detector saved our life. So seeing the words that ice may cause damage gives me a bit of anxiety because I'm scared to use our kerosene heater now if we lose power. 

91E251FD-7609-439D-9707-2F3A7DC05A9A.jpeg

Praise God for your detector. Consider doubling up on detectors in the house.

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