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Typhoon Tip

Active mid December with multiple event potential

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Certainly based on the sounding you would expect all snow but even in times past...we have seen forecast soundings in similar situations which would completely nix mixing only for it to happen. The issue I think is the warm layer is so subtle that even a model with a resolution like the HRRR doesn't pick up on it, When precipitation is heavy you would certainly get snow but in those lulls...mixing is possible.

Not saying this happens but we've seen it happen too many times in the past. 

if it doesn't pick up on it, then how is an algorithm based on its output showing sleet?

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48 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Welp, that does it for me. Logan has cancelled all inbound flights from 4pm onwards. Oh well.

Have fun guys.

Damn!   When the next signal happens, get in your car and drive.  We’ve been back and forth to Chicago two ice since August going again right after New Years.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Busy day. Our final call. Let's rock. 

131151416_3481493775237698_4986402842169

That's a little aggressive but not by much.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

IBM Graf. I know I’ve seen comments this model has done well at times recently 

9edc9h2.png

Lol, much as I would like to believe it, have to toss that output.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

IBM Graf. I know I’ve seen comments this model has done well at times recently 

9edc9h2.png

Just FYI this is still experimental. But some FB hero mets are pimping it out I guess. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Just FYI this is still experimental. But some FB hero mets are pimping it out I guess. 

I want a machine learning model that learns how all the other models fck up and adjusts for them

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

if it doesn't pick up on it, then how is an algorithm based on its output showing sleet?

I'm not talking about the algorithm...obviously it is picking up on some warmer layer somewhere if it's showing IP precip type. Unless thermals aren't built into the algorithm which would be pretty stupid and I'm sure the developers are a bit more smart than that. 

Perhaps the forecast sounding is not properly addressing the warm layer. I mean we've seen this happen dozens of times in the past. Everyone dismisses the mixing it shows and dismisses the HRRR everytime it shows something that isn't favorable. I mean how many times have people dismissed the HRRR when it's going all out and other models are opposite? If this was forecast to be a 3-6'' storm and the HRRR was spitting out 10-15'' would people be dismissing it, probably not. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

IBM Graf. I know I’ve seen comments this model has done well at times recently 

9edc9h2.png

Shows that band further south and not near albany

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm not talking about the algorithm...obviously it is picking up on some warmer layer somewhere if it's showing IP precip type. Unless thermals aren't built into the algorithm which would be pretty stupid and I'm sure the developers are a bit more smart than that. 

Perhaps the forecast sounding is not properly addressing the warm layer. I mean we've seen this happen dozens of times in the past. Everyone dismisses the mixing it shows and dismisses the HRRR everytime it shows something that isn't favorable. I mean how many times have people dismissed the HRRR when it's going all out and other models are opposite? If this was forecast to be a 3-6'' storm and the HRRR was spitting out 10-15'' would people be dismissing it, probably not. 

I mean it's maxing at like -5C around H7....I think the p-type algorithm is just garbage. 

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4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Giddy up!

We better ******* produce in this one :lol:

4 minutes ago, Greg said:

That's a little aggressive but not by much.

Eh, we told our followers most should expect to be closer to 12" than 18, but since there's a legitimate chance of higher end stuff performing we think 18 with lolli's to 20 is reasonable. Aggressive, but reasonable. 

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Radar is looking absolutely beefy right now. The southern coastal component is ramping up quickly and it is big time snow in Virginia and starting to crank up in Pennsylvania. All a question of if it can sustain and build upon the structure later today. 

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

You awake yet? Or still meh?

Had a minor bipolar episode last night, but giddy as fook right now. Best December event in a couple decades probably.

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29 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Here in the Boston area we have been so starved for a snow event... it has literally been years since the last decent snowstorm, far too much rain and ice versus feet of drifts of snow, just like my childhood. A small part of me is still worried about a bust but this could be real nice for a large area of SE NE

Lol it hasn't been that bad, lmao

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1 minute ago, DomNH said:

I mean it's maxing at like -5C around H7....I the p-type algorithm is just garbage. 

We saw this exact same situation with the storm last December...or maybe it was the year before. HRRR started indicating mixing and every single person dismissed it and it was over the same argument. I wish I had the brain power to remember specific events but I recall several over the past few years where this happened, especially during these early season events;

1) when precipitation intensity is light 

and

2) when best lift falls below the DGZ

it doesn't matter how thin that warm layer (even if barely boerderline)...now perhaps it will be as cold as indicated in the cloud layer as dendrite mentioned but I don't get why everyone is so quick to dismiss these things when we've seen them happen so many times before. 

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