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Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's actually in a really good spot on the Euro for ML banding....His area up to like MHT and then back WSW to near your hood.

Was just gonna say it looks like the H7 low skirts the south coast of CT and RI before heading northeast. That's a good look for here. 

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4 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Was just gonna say it looks like the H7 low skirts the south coast of CT and RI before heading northeast. That's a good look for here. 

A better look with a more intact WCB, and better band placement around here.  Would help avoid major subby issues. 

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3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It's an interesting concept. The model learns from itself and/or other models to learn what not to do or forecast.

That's what machine learning is...basically, let the computer mix and match its own variables to come up with a formula that works through trial and error. A lot of times they end up getting these machine-learned programs and nobody knows how the heck they actually work.

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9 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Was just gonna say it looks like the H7 low skirts the south coast of CT and RI before heading northeast. That's a good look for here. 

Yeah you can see where the H7 WF is below in red....I put in the likely spot of the ML goodies based off that in the blue area....prob near the 600mb WF in this system.

 

 

Dec16_12zEuro_midlevel.png

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

That's what machine learning is...basically, let the computer mix and match its own variables to come up with a formula that works through trial and error. A lot of times they end up getting these machine-learned programs and nobody knows how the heck they actually work.

Models kind of do this through MOS. It's not machine-learning, but they can account for their own biases in the output. If you're looking for something that knows that NAM is always too NW with low center placement in winter, well that's basically what the humans are for, and there's a published catalog of known model biases on one of the national center sites.

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1 minute ago, snowman21 said:

Models kind of do this through MOS. It's not machine-learning, but they can account for their own biases in the output. If you're looking for something that knows that NAM is always too NW with low center placement in winter, well that's basically what the humans are for, and there's a published catalog of known model biases on one of the national center sites.

Well that's like saying playing chess is what humans are for...yes, but a computer can do it much, much better.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I like that Ray is pulling an "it's a wonderful life" and coming off the bridge. 

Well, I was afraid of like 8-9" of sand...but I feel better now that the WCB is more intact, and the mid level deformation has sunk south some.

I'm not JP, but that is fine.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't forgeth, we also have the low levels feeding dry air in from Maine.

Yeah you aren't jackpotting....i agree on that. But you're not going to get 7 inches of sand either I don't think. You're gonna get CCB action tomorrow.

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