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Typhoon Tip

Active mid December with multiple event potential

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13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No my town will cancel and no remote learning if/when they do. They purposely made that clear here.  Smart move imo. Let the kids be kids for god sakes. 
 

Just realized what you meant...and I agree 100%.  

Many towns will continue with normal snow days and then adjust if snow day needs get too great; also for a 2-day event many will do a snow day for day 1 and then remote learning for day 2.

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Yeah that HRRR mixed area looks like snow to me. Even though there’s dry air in the midlevels it’s still colder than -10C and you’ll have some salt nuclei. I was expecting to see the top of the cloud layer around -5C or something where you could have a nucleation issue, but it was like -10C to -15C in that purple zone just below the dry air aloft.

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Here in the Boston area we have been so starved for a snow event... it has literally been years since the last decent snowstorm, far too much rain and ice versus feet of drifts of snow, just like my childhood. A small part of me is still worried about a bust but this could be real nice for a large area of SE NE

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that HRRR mixed area looks like snow to me. Even though there’s dry air in the midlevels it’s still colder than -10C and you’ll have some salt nuclei. I was expecting to see the top of the cloud layer around -5C or something where you could have a nucleation issue, but it was like -10C to -15C in that purple zone just below the dry air aloft.

One thing to kinda consider here is there could certainly be some wonky thin warmer layers in here...I think the HRRR is very sensitive to thermal profiles, isn't it? Anyways, I think it's something we should certainly not toss...we have seen in similar set ups where we toss the mixing and it happens. There could be a crap ton of latent heat release too. given the forecast track of H7/H85 I wouldn't be shocked to see some sneaky warmth aloft...especially given where H85 is closing off. Maybe some warmth around 780-800?

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing to kinda consider here is there could certainly be some wonky thin warmer layers in here...I think the HRRR is very sensitive to thermal profiles, isn't it? Anyways, I think it's something we should certainly not toss...we have seen in similar set ups where we toss the mixing and it happens. There could be a crap ton of latent heat release too. given the forecast track of H7/H85 I wouldn't be shocked to see some sneaky warmth aloft...especially given where H85 is closing off. Maybe some warmth around 780-800?

fTAI0F9.png

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57 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s funny but the pandemic kind of eliminated snow days.  Everyone can do it from home for a day.

Our sons' school announced that there will be "snow days" in the sense of there being no instruction - including remote - if staff can't get to the building. So at least the kids still have that.

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

fTAI0F9.png

Certainly based on the sounding you would expect all snow but even in times past...we have seen forecast soundings in similar situations which would completely nix mixing only for it to happen. The issue I think is the warm layer is so subtle that even a model with a resolution like the HRRR doesn't pick up on it, When precipitation is heavy you would certainly get snow but in those lulls...mixing is possible.

Not saying this happens but we've seen it happen too many times in the past. 

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