Active mid December with multiple event potential

[ineedsnow]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy shit

Decent shift southeast from earlier 

[FXWX]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No my town will cancel and no remote learning if/when they do. They purposely made that clear here.  Smart move imo. Let the kids be kids for god sakes. 
 

Just realized what you meant...and I agree 100%.  

Many towns will continue with normal snow days and then adjust if snow day needs get too great; also for a 2-day event many will do a snow day for day 1 and then remote learning for day 2.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Toss the hrrr... I think actual mixing is going to be pinned to the beaches and east of the canal.

[dendrite]

Yeah that HRRR mixed area looks like snow to me. Even though there’s dry air in the midlevels it’s still colder than -10C and you’ll have some salt nuclei. I was expecting to see the top of the cloud layer around -5C or something where you could have a nucleation issue, but it was like -10C to -15C in that purple zone just below the dry air aloft.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Or wait until totals show up.

[jlauderdal]

Toss the hrrr... I think actual mixing is going to be pinned to the beaches and east of the canal.

Toss them all..its time to go into nowcast mode..sat, radar, obs is all you need now

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Or wait until totals show up.

I'll lock that

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

HRRR has mixing in ct 

Hrrr unreliable past hour 10

[tiger_deF]

Here in the Boston area we have been so starved for a snow event... it has literally been years since the last decent snowstorm, far too much rain and ice versus feet of drifts of snow, just like my childhood. A small part of me is still worried about a bust but this could be real nice for a large area of SE NE

[Damage In Tolland]

Ukie is beast 

[EastonSN+]

Can't wait for UKIE snow map

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Or wait until totals show up.

I'll take that all day.

[WeatherWilly]

someone said ukie moved south? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

@RUNNAWAYICEBERG Should we meet halfway to do naked snow angels?

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that HRRR mixed area looks like snow to me. Even though there’s dry air in the midlevels it’s still colder than -10C and you’ll have some salt nuclei. I was expecting to see the top of the cloud layer around -5C or something where you could have a nucleation issue, but it was like -10C to -15C in that purple zone just below the dry air aloft.

One thing to kinda consider here is there could certainly be some wonky thin warmer layers in here...I think the HRRR is very sensitive to thermal profiles, isn't it? Anyways, I think it's something we should certainly not toss...we have seen in similar set ups where we toss the mixing and it happens. There could be a crap ton of latent heat release too. given the forecast track of H7/H85 I wouldn't be shocked to see some sneaky warmth aloft...especially given where H85 is closing off. Maybe some warmth around 780-800?

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One thing to kinda consider here is there could certainly be some wonky thin warmer layers in here...I think the HRRR is very sensitive to thermal profiles, isn't it? Anyways, I think it's something we should certainly not toss...we have seen in similar set ups where we toss the mixing and it happens. There could be a crap ton of latent heat release too. given the forecast track of H7/H85 I wouldn't be shocked to see some sneaky warmth aloft...especially given where H85 is closing off. Maybe some warmth around 780-800?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

@RUNNAWAYICEBERG Should we meet halfway to do naked snow angels?

I think we are both good in our spots even if it isnt the jack zones. But I’m always available to hold hands naked in the snow. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Here ya go.  

 

[Hoth]

Damn, radar in the VA/MD area is juiced. I like it. I like it a lot.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

That's sleet?

[Mothman]

Jesus...this is gonna be big by me. 

[CoastalWx]

That map looks strange from the Ukie.

[PWMan]

57 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s funny but the pandemic kind of eliminated snow days.  Everyone can do it from home for a day.

Our sons' school announced that there will be "snow days" in the sense of there being no instruction - including remote - if staff can't get to the building. So at least the kids still have that.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

That's sleet?

Algorithm is whack.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That map looks strange from the Ukie.

Was just going to say that's nothing like the other one posted

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That's sleet?

No

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Certainly based on the sounding you would expect all snow but even in times past...we have seen forecast soundings in similar situations which would completely nix mixing only for it to happen. The issue I think is the warm layer is so subtle that even a model with a resolution like the HRRR doesn't pick up on it, When precipitation is heavy you would certainly get snow but in those lulls...mixing is possible.

Not saying this happens but we've seen it happen too many times in the past. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Was just going to say that's nothing like the other one posted

Also sucker hole over me again

[Baroclinic Zone]

Agree with ya @CoastalWx

[WxWatcher007]

Busy day. Our final call. Let's rock.