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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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Eric Fisher on Twitter

At face value, it's a good setup for heavy snow late Wednesday. So what could go wrong? My main concern is the northern extent of that heavy snow. Will be watching the trends and should be more clear by tomorrow AM No need to rush

 
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still days away

The storm that heads off to our south tomorrow becomes a beast in the North Atlantic. Will be an important part of the follow-up storm that's our main snow chance

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Eric Fisher on Twitter

At face value, it's a good setup for heavy snow late Wednesday. So what could go wrong? My main concern is the northern extent of that heavy snow. Will be watching the trends and should be more clear by tomorrow AM No need to rush

 
❄

still days away

The storm that heads off to our south tomorrow becomes a beast in the North Atlantic. Will be an important part of the follow-up storm that's our main snow chance

Yep, small nuances mean a lot in practical weather for the size storm that is forecast to become.

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38 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Which run will the GFS cave to the EURO on....

You sure it won't be the other way around?

This is the third run in the row that the GFS has done this, so it's not like last night when you could maybe dismiss it as a fluke run. Not to mention we do have a monstrous 50/50 low and strong Canadian high.

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2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

You sure it won't be the other way around?

This is the third run in the row that the GFS has done this.

We have had snow storms where the GFS does this 8 runs in a row, and hasn’t come around until it’s already snowing LOL.

Of course this could be the solution but it’s in the minority of guidance at the moment.

 

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It's the third run in a row and virtually nothing else has followed it. It's possible to be consistently wrong. I'll perk up when everything else slides its way. 

We'll do the same thing we did at 00z.

Just the GFS and its ensembles. We'll see if the GGEM, UKMET or Euro catch on to this. Hopefully not, of course.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM upper air was significantly more amplified at the same hour so I doubt it would have moved the same. 

Yeah I think the problem this run was a weaker s/w. It never gets latitude and then just triple points eastward. To have a prayer up here it needs to be zonked and curling toward LI before the redevelopment more E-ENE.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs run to run consistency on snow axis is pretty good, at least it’s consistent.

Almost nothing north of Boston... to low end warning SE areas 

The GFS has come a long way.  Although I believe it’s too far SE and it’s not grasping upper or mid dynamics and hence QPF it was always reasonably close to other global guidance from 5-6-7 days out.  As recently as 5 years ago that never would have happened 

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