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Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

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8 minutes ago, billgwx said:

GFS is notorious for overdoing this confluence via too strong of a polar jet. If models overdo the snowfall across southern Canada this weekend that too could lead to too strong/cold of a high.

Bill what’s your thoughts on the gefs, ggem, eps, euro, and icon all showing a similar evolution? 

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take these clown maps and cut the amounts in half and it is still a nice mid December storm...as far as a white Christmas goes we would need a week long cold snap after the storm or another storm the following week...

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3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I've seen it happen before with Pi day 2017. It will be an absolute nightmare to keep up with clearing wise.

This storm never gets brought up in any forum here ever again, kay? (3.5" here. very fast over to rain when 12" was predicted). I was in PA a few days later and saw winter heaven, so I'm fully aware how much that storm sucked. :P 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

This storm never gets brought up in any forum here ever again, kay? (3.5" here. very fast over to rain when 12" was predicted). I was in PA a few days later and saw winter heaven, so I'm fully aware how much that storm sucked. :P 

It was our payback for missing Jonas, ha.

 

If this is your payback for us taking Pi day I really wouldn't mind. 95 deserves its next big storm.

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bill what’s your thoughts on the gefs, ggem, eps, euro, and icon all showing a similar evolution? 

You were a little more blunt than I was lol.  I agree with you 100%.   If the gfs is wrong than they're all wrong on the synoptic evolution.   

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Just now, Rjay said:

You were a little more blunt than I was lol.  I agree with you 100%.   If the gfs is wrong than they're all wrong on the evolution.   

 

A3F2C62C-40C9-4877-BEB2-27B5BC7BE1FA.png

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Just now, Allsnow said:

 

A3F2C62C-40C9-4877-BEB2-27B5BC7BE1FA.png

Yes, keep those right there please. Like I said, I see this trying to hug up to near Cape May and then confluence shunts it out. It's quite a vigorous S/W spawning this beast. 

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Just now, David-LI said:

What storm setup in the past looks like this upcoming one?

To me it's a subdued and quicker Jan 1996/Feb 1983 setup. Strong confluence out ahead of a powerful trough and shortwave. The PNA ridge isn't what those were and this is a quicker pattern so I wouldn't expect those same amounts but for who this does hit it'll be a crusher. 

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1 minute ago, David-LI said:

What storm setup in the past looks like this upcoming one?

Its sort of February 2003 but with a strong surface low and a more dynamic setup.  That storm was purely overrunning

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Something for the tucked in crew to chew on 

Wonder if this is 6 hours after it starts sliding east off the coast of AC

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Something for the tucked in crew to chew on 

500mb must not be as wound up as some other models, with only 1006 mb surface low?

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2 minutes ago, Yaz said:

500mb must not be as wound up as some other models, with only 1006 mb surface low?

So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far 

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far 

Wrong cmc doesn't close the 500 like 00z . But it is noise at this point .

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far 

We'll see what the hi-res Ukie shows shortly.  I have a feeling the low is off the coast of AC at hr 114.  

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The high over New England will really fight to hold on with a -4.5 SD 50/50 vortex. I wonder if this is close to the record for mid-December?

11  500  4815 

39BA4843-59F4-4FE1-A158-DE500A85E2CA.thumb.jpeg.b1044b5e62c47668e91c6c7c7105658b.jpeg

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Just now, Rjay said:

We'll see what the hi-res Ukie shows shortly.  I have a feeling the low is off the coast of AC at hr 114.  

Im sure. Most models have low sliding east at 17/12z also. I'm sure thats the evolution of this as well. 

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far 

UK usually correlates closer to EC than GFS , if memory serves; so shall be interesting to watch evolution; esp. what impact Monday’s “storm” has on the Wed. puppy.

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