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Typhoon Tip

Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they are really weenieish. Unless it’s premium conditions it’s usually pretty safe to take like 75% of those numbers. Still impressive of course, but a little less obscene. 

I find certain ones better than others... ironically the HRRR snow maps usually aren’t as weenieish as that one.  They are pretty good at only counting the change over to snow.  But you still might waste a couple tenths on white rain or wet snow at the changeover.

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Just now, wxsniss said:

It's pretty close overall... within range of noise

Might also be a tic slower

Agree... looks a little slower than anything. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Some of this on the NAM seems to just be the precip shield tightening up. I have seen it do that many times. It is usually too aggressive with the mega-cutoff.

Will has been warning of that... nuke tightening up.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks a tic East and maybe a hair slower?

SLP is actually a little west of 18z at 00z tomorrow night. 

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The storm looks to be getting increasingly deeper and slower right around hook of cape cod on the HRRR. I think this could be a beating 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

SLP is actually a little west of 18z at 00z tomorrow night. 

It looks about the same, Its just a tic or so slower.

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, west and deeper than 18z as it rounds the cape, but the NW cutoff is really tight now.

I guess the question is whether that is legit, I mean the tightening shield.  Or will the precip be more expansive 

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