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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Yeah once I’m at the hotel/motel I’ll just be walking. I’ll bring some food etc. let me check out some places in Henniker. Thanks all I got a couple great recommendations. Now let’s hope the RGEMs temps are wrong lol. 

Don’t worry about RGEM.  It’s still resting on its laurels from 2015 despite sucking since.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

12/9/05 definitely had a better airmass all around. This has a strong vort, but garbage air all over.

If we had a 12/9/05 airmass, we'd be looking at 15-20 easy where the max stripe goes...prob some 20+.  This moves slower than that one.

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29 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I think I’m gonna head somewhere off the  highway in Concord. I drive a sports car and I’m not able to leave until like 5pm tonight so a 6 hour drive I’ll just be beating it, but I don’t wanna drive on rough roads

Just make sure it's because you turned on your direction signal and moved to the off-ramp in a purposeful...successfully executed series of movements  - LOL

... I mean, 'head somewhere off the highway' sounds like a comedic lead in to what happens on snow covered roads -

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I'm likely watching this one from afar or from the edges anyway barring a TB12 Super Bowl LI type comeback. RGEM offers a bit of hope that I at least get something. 

It can happen. I remember the 3/7-8/18 nor'easter that was modeled to go slightly east and I wound up getting 3'+ from a sick deform band that sat up over me for several hours and dumped... 

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24 minutes ago, RDRY said:

 

24 minutes ago, RDRY said:

I'm aware of that. Over two decades up here seeing when watches are issued, I found the call to be oddly out of sync with the modeling. It requires much more forecasting certainty at that lead time to issue watches in these parts. If the mets making the call simply anticipated an outcome divergent with the modeling, they've never referenced it in their write-ups.

Yes they are out of sync, and in addition they have to anchor themselves with consistency in their forecast packages against wildly shifting models IE yesterday’s MA watches being issued while several models wanted to remove snow from that area and shift focus onto Maine.

furthermore, central and eastern NWS offices has to prepare the afternoon package before 18z model runs come out anyway so from our perspective it can look like 18z is being ignored.

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31 minutes ago, tunafish said:

That's a good call.  Henniker, NH.  You can get there via 202, which is essentially a one-lane highway.  I wouldn't advise going up to Pats Peak in a sports car.  The roads to get there are winding.  "Downtown" Henniker might be good enough.  You can walk around there, too, by the river.

Pats peak barely has elevation at base . I have chased that area and wasn’t impressed w elevation ..especially down town .You drive an extra 4o r or so from concord thru honkey tonk Ville and perhaps Gets further west from banding . Maybe , tough call.

 

I like 1K in Temple  NH , you cut N at ORH and it’s a faster drive and I think it’s prime for banding . BirchWood inn 1050’

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Seeing it more and more. Models -- with their varying programming parameters -- are having a brutal time with these bombing coastals. Almost like the atmosphere has gotten away from them. They're all over the place even within a day of the event. Forecasters' nightmare.

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22 minutes ago, RDRY said:

I'm aware of that. Over two decades up here seeing when watches are issued, I found the call to be oddly out of sync with the modeling. It requires much more forecasting certainty at that lead time to issue watches in these parts. If the mets making the call simply anticipated an outcome divergent with the modeling, they've never referenced it in their write-ups.

GYX was noting model flip-flops and potential huge impacts on qpf and p-type, starting before they posted the watch.  Can't speak for other WSOs.

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Just now, tamarack said:

GYX was noting model flip-flops and potential huge impacts on qpf and p-type, starting before they posted the watch.  Can't speak for other WSOs.

We were essentially running out of time for watches yesterday. They are typically a 36-48 hour product, and given the scale of this potential a headline is kind of preferred. Now if you're talking the difference between double digits and 0 snow, a watch still makes sense. It's essentially 50/50 you'll get warning, but the lower bound is just a skunk rather than a few inches.

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27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM is still a furnace. Also more amped...buzzard bay track.

Still weird to see the sfc so torched though....at 21z tomorrow, it has -1C 925 over my head with -3C 850 temps and it's like 37F, lol

Wasn't the reggie super torched at 2m during the last event we had? 

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