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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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59 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

It pains me to say this, but the next possibly noteworthy system, around 150 hours out, has caught my attention. 

Right before a minitorch to end January and again on day 10, with a nickel-and-dime system in between to kick off February. :lol:

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Meanwhile, the 00z GFS is a shutout for a majority of IL, IN, and OH.

tenor.gifsn10_acc.us_mw.png

Heading to February, the MJO is supposed to fluctuate between phases 6 and 7 before eventually settling into the latter phase.image.png.2cfd0bece308f710e14f2e2a98567304.png

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12 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Right before a minitorch to end January and again on day 10, with a nickel-and-dime system in between to kick off February. :lol:

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Meanwhile, the 00z GFS is a shutout for a majority of IL, IN, and OH.

tenor.gifsn10_acc.us_mw.png

Heading to February, the MJO is supposed to fluctuate between phases 6 and 7 before eventually settling into the latter phase.image.png.2cfd0bece308f710e14f2e2a98567304.png

Ty I was waiting for these. 

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9 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

It pains me to say this, but the next possibly noteworthy system, around 150 hours out, has caught my attention. 

euro and ggem were good, gfs moving towards something

weekend potential might be real

EDIT: i've definitely slept on this concentrating on current event, looks good

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10 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

It pains me to say this, but the next possibly noteworthy system, around 150 hours out, has caught my attention. 

I agree. It's interesting to say the least.

Only thing I’m concerned about is the progressive flow. The northern stream doesn’t really dig further south and like our current storm, it’s all southern stream. Nonetheless, it could be a decent overrunning event with some STJ influence too. We’ll know more as the week progresses and when it’s sampled come Thursday night.

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31 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro and ggem were good, gfs moving towards something

weekend potential might be real

EDIT: i've definitely slept on this concentrating on current event, looks good

12z Canadian model says eh

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2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

12z Canadian model says eh

Wym? It's at least a moderate system, drops like nine inches in central IL. 

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55 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Wym? It's at least a moderate system, drops like nine inches in central IL. 

not meh but "eh".... like a Canadian was speaking

The outliner so far but others trending to something more interesting too

 

 

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

not meh but "eh".... like a Canadian was speaking

The outliner so far but others trending to something more interesting too

 

 

wut?

The Euro has had a solid event too, along with many EPS.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

wut?

The Euro has had a solid event too, along with many EPS.

and para GFS, plenty of support now

snowpack probably won't hurt either

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1 minute ago, mimillman said:

If nothing else, this looks like it could be another fun one that trends drier

Another wave that will peak west, and then shear/weaken as it pushes east...And that is actually due in part to the northern lobe in Canada for the current event, which ends up off the East Coast for the weekend event.

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5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

If nothing else, this looks like it could be another fun one that trends drier

From zzzz... to tracking weakening systems. Baby steps

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Another wave that will peak west, and then shear/weaken as it pushes east...And that is actually due in part to the northern lobe in Canada for the current event, which ends up off the East Coast for the weekend event.

Can certainly see that on the euro at least

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There's significant system in the long range (~252) with a fairly decent amount of deterministic and ensemble support. Powerhouse longwave trough traverses the country during the period and assuming a neg tilt/quality ejection from the 4 corners, could lead to a significant system for someone somewhere in the midwest. Meanwhile in the warm sector, assuming moisture, the general look aloft is analogous to significant severe weather outbreaks in the lower OV and Dixie.

One of the better GEFS analogs upstairs is 2/5/2008.....

500wh.conus.png

500h_anom.conus.png

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It certainly does not look to become boring at all around here following the current storm.  While I want my yard to get clobbered, it'd also be nice if areas farther into the lakes could get something good.

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1 hour ago, hlcater said:

There's significant system in the long range (~252) with a fairly decent amount of deterministic and ensemble support. Powerhouse longwave trough traverses the country during the period and assuming a neg tilt/quality ejection from the 4 corners, could lead to a significant system for someone somewhere in the midwest. Meanwhile in the warm sector, assuming moisture, the general look aloft is analogous to significant severe weather outbreaks in the lower OV and Dixie.

One of the better GEFS analogs upstairs is 2/5/2008.....

500wh.conus.png

500h_anom.conus.png

This ain't 2008 or 2011...weather just doesn't do cool **** in the midsection of the country anymore, whether winter or severe, even with a La Nina.

* Unless it's a historic derecho that just happens without any sort of lead time from the models and thus from the forecasting enterprise.

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41 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Maybe the Saturday-Sunday system can get Des Moines up over 50" lol.  When you're hot you're hawt.

that's like the easiest rule in med-long range wx lately, ride the hot hand

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3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

that's like the easiest rule in med-long range wx lately, ride the hot hand

Iowa special

Rain in Indianapolis

1045mb high over Nunavut

Lake effect

Next storm thanks

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8 hours ago, mimillman said:

Looks like a rainer

 

6 hours ago, mimillman said:

If nothing else, this looks like it could be another fun one that trends drier

 

4 hours ago, mimillman said:

Iowa special

Rain in Indianapolis

1045mb high over Nunavut

Lake effect

Next storm thanks

We got a new Debbie downer 

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