Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Hoosier]

Last year I started this thread on October 19.  I didn't necessarily expect to be starting this one even earlier, but here we are.

Extended looks to feature some bouts of unseasonable chill, with perhaps a synoptic snow system or two between now and the end of the month.  At the very least, the lake effect snow machine should fire up.

[madwx]

looks like troughing last over the east for at least a week or two.  The GEFS and CFS have a relatively weak vortex through the period which goes hand and hand with the blocking pattern.

[A-L-E-K]

east coast ridging and cutters all winter

[IWXwx]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

east coast ridging and cutters all winter

You had to start trolling Ohio already, huh?  

Although the rest of October has a chilly look to it, I would not be surprised to see a 2017-like November with a weak la Nina.

[Angrysummons]

The ECMWF is almost a RNA pattern.

[(((Will)))]

Doesn't really seem early. I've already had several dustings of snow and look to have several more in the coming few days.

 

 

[IWXwx]

Just now, (((Will))) said:

Doesn't really seem early. I've already had several dustings of snow and look to have several more in the coming few days.

 

 

Micro climate. It's early here.

[BuffaloWeather]

NOAA winter outlook is out, looks good for the lakes area. 

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina?fbclid=IwAR1CoWldQvKKAcDeoh5h1pgPNbmlDc1QB5xawS90hnjNB22yjIpl1mbO_4c

[A-L-E-K]

ready 2 b buried

 

[Hoosier]

49 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

ready 2 b buried

 

Recall that Chicago has never recorded back to back Octobers with measurable snow.  Seems like it's going to be put to the test this year.

[Angrysummons]

On 10/13/2020 at 5:07 PM, Angrysummons said:

The ECMWF is almost a RNA pattern.

Pretty typical La Nina/west qbo type of pattern. Cold north central areas. Warm southeast.

[michsnowfreak]

I'm happily getting that 2007-08 vibe. Dry Fall to start now as we head into winter its getting stormier. The computer forecasts are always to be taken with a grain of salt, but above avg precip in winter seems to be a near unanimous signal at this early stage.

[Cary67]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm happily getting that 2007-08 vibe. Dry Fall to start now as we head into winter its getting stormier. The computer forecasts are always to be taken with a grain of salt, but above avg precip in winter seems to be a near unanimous signal at this early stage.

That winter was awesome. Let's hope this cold end to October doesn't translate to a mild DJF like last year.

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

That winter was awesome. Let's hope this cold end to October doesn't translate to a mild DJF like last year.

Another thing is no 2 winters are ever identical. As it is October 2007 was very warm with a late peak color, in contrast to this cool October with its early peak color. 2007-08 was certainly not my favorite Winter, because it did not have the constant buried in snow of 2013-14 due to its Nina-esque thaws being common. But from a storm parade standpoint you can not ask for more. Fingers crossed!

[Cary67]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Another thing is no 2 winters are ever identical. As it is October 2007 was very warm with a late peak color, in contrast to this cool October with its early peak color. 2007-08 was certainly not my favorite Winter, because it did not have the constant buried in snow of 2013-14 due to its Nina-esque thaws being common. But from a storm parade standpoint you can not ask for more. Fingers crossed!

Yeah being a little further east of my location you may have ended up on the warm side of more of those cutters in 2007-08. My area ended up with about 88" that year

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Yeah being a little further east of my location you may have ended up on the warm side of more of those cutters in 2007-08. My area ended up with about 88" that year

I still ended up with 78". in addition to that there were several rainstorms and some ice.

[CheeselandSkies]

40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Another thing is no 2 winters are ever identical. As it is October 2007 was very warm with a late peak color, in contrast to this cool October with its early peak color. 2007-08 was certainly not my favorite Winter, because it did not have the constant buried in snow of 2013-14 due to its Nina-esque thaws being common. But from a storm parade standpoint you can not ask for more. Fingers crossed!

I will take that, we were buried in snow most of DJF but there was that early-mid January thaw that also included a regional tornado outbreak.

[Snowstorms]

07-08 is arguably one of the best winters in the last 30+ years.  Apart from snow cover retention and lack of arctic air that 2013-14 featured, it was constantly stormy. I'd be shocked if you’re in the Great Lakes region and don't want a repeat of that winter unless you got rain with every storm. Even parts of the Ohio Valley did well that winter. 

[CheeselandSkies]

I'd take the constant storminess over the extended arctic air and modest-to-moderate snowstorms. '13-'14 got to be brutal and my power bills were astronomical in my electric-heated apartment.

[Geoboy645]

Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

I'd take the constant storminess over the extended arctic air and modest-to-moderate snowstorms. '13-'14 got to be brutal and my power bills were astronomical in my electric-heated apartment.

Same here. I honestly don't remember 13-14 to be that extraordinary outside of the constant cold around here. We didn't get nearly the same snow amounts as pretty much the rest of the Midwest did. 07-08 on the other hand, well it's 07-08. It's our snowiest winter by over 30". Even up here by Green Bay it is one of the snowier winters up here with like 80". What is crazy about that winter is it was all pretty much nickel and dimes. We really only had one big storm in 2/6/08. The rest of the winter it was just constant 3-5 inchers with some 6-8's spread in there too.

[CheeselandSkies]

'07-'08 was my last year attending UW-Green Bay with winter break trip home so I got to experience it in both northeast and south-central Wisconsin. As I recall your assessment is accurate.

[Gino27]

We had one of our largest snowstorms ever in March of 2008. I think it was a fairly dismal winter up until that point. Ended around 46" for the season.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

Same here. I honestly don't remember 13-14 to be that extraordinary outside of the constant cold around here. We didn't get nearly the same snow amounts as pretty much the rest of the Midwest did. 07-08 on the other hand, well it's 07-08. It's our snowiest winter by over 30". Even up here by Green Bay it is one of the snowier winters up here with like 80". What is crazy about that winter is it was all pretty much nickel and dimes. We really only had one big storm in 2/6/08. The rest of the winter it was just constant 3-5 inchers with some 6-8's spread in there too.

 We were like ground 0 in 13-14 here. Almost 100" of snow, brutal cold, it had at all. Truly a class all its own. But 07-08 was a good Winter as well, not really all that cold relatively speaking, but a Winter storm parade almost nonstop from December through March.  Something that sits well with many also is that Winter did not start too early nor did it linger on way into the end of April or may as has been the case in recent years (though we had a hell of a Good Friday snowstorm Mar 21). It was just extremely heavily packed for DJFM.

[RogueWaves]

On 10/19/2020 at 12:51 PM, Geoboy645 said:

Same here. I honestly don't remember 13-14 to be that extraordinary outside of the constant cold around here. We didn't get nearly the same snow amounts as pretty much the rest of the Midwest did. 07-08 on the other hand, well it's 07-08. It's our snowiest winter by over 30". Even up here by Green Bay it is one of the snowier winters up here with like 80". What is crazy about that winter is it was all pretty much nickel and dimes. We really only had one big storm in 2/6/08. The rest of the winter it was just constant 3-5 inchers with some 6-8's spread in there too.

Here we scored (3) legit warned storms. Dec 15th was 10", the New Years Eve storm was an 8-10" event, and then the March 21-22 storm that delivered a full 13". Feb didn't feature a biggie despite getting around 30" for the month.

And then 08-09, it just got better..more cold and more snow. Actually, for here, 13-14 narrowly edged 08-09 in total snow, but ofc is the hands down winner in days with deep snow cover.

1/6/14, Depth ~22", Temp @ -16F, with a balmy -41F WC

 

[A-L-E-K]

upcoming looks way boring and mild, i guess maybe a good thing to blow some boring weather during a climatologically blah period anyways and hope things flip active towards end of month, weeklies also grim

 

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

upcoming looks way boring and mild, i guess maybe a good thing to blow some boring weather during a climatologically blah period anyways and hope things flip active towards end of month, weeklies also grim

 

If that holds could grill out the turkey this Thanksgiving 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

upcoming looks way boring and mild, i guess maybe a good thing to blow some boring weather during a climatologically blah period anyways and hope things flip active towards end of month, weeklies also grim

 

 I've had enough years of experience to know that while my mind is ready for snow November 1st, it's much better to blow mild boring weather the 1st half of November.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

If that holds could grill out the turkey this Thanksgiving 

Nah. Asking something to hold for 3 weeks in a la nina pattern is asking a mighty lot lol.

[StormfanaticInd]

December has a decent shot of being cold this year imo

[StormfanaticInd]

The key to this winter is going to be the strength of the southeast ridge. Wildcard is the NAO