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George BM

September Discobs 2020

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While we need the rain here, today’s weather was an A for sure.  72 and partly cloudy/partly sunny throughout the day.  

Although its noticeable how low the lake is right now vs normal.  Hopefully we get some solid rains this week.

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22 minutes ago, nj2va said:

While we need the rain here, today’s weather was an A for sure.  72 and partly cloudy/partly sunny throughout the day.  

Although its noticeable how low the lake is right now vs normal.  Hopefully we get some solid rains this week.

I heard they are going to take the level down past the lower limit this winter to do some maintenance. Looks like its on the lower end of the band right now: https://safewaters.com/facility/12

 

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Picked up 0.41" of rain overnight.

Not sure where it came from. I guess I wasn't paying attention, but last I saw there was a 20% chance of showers.

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Just now, nj2va said:

GFS favoring the I-81 corridor with the heaviest rain this week, dropping 2”+ over that area.

Did you notice the GFS  it is trending more progressive as well. Meanwhile, the dews here are insane. My location is in the upper 60's,  but other locations much higher. Very gross for almost October 1 st. 

Looking at the satellite time lapse just now and seeing the back edge of the cloud deck rapidly advancing to the NE.  Should go partly to mostly sunny later . 

Humidity 93%
Wind Speed S 8 mph
Barometer 29.91 in (1012.6 mb)
Dewpoint 66°F (19°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 28 Sep 7:51 am EDT

 

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15 hours ago, George BM said:

@BlizzardNole Hmm... Not too often I see this profile pic outside of winter.

 

75/65 at IAD atm.

The pic is about the complete rock bottom that FSU football has hit.

So LWX talking about 1-2" east of Route 15 and more (of course) east of I-95.  I would be ecstatic with 0.75.  I'd love some thunder too -- haven't had much of that at all.

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2 hours ago, frd said:

Did you notice the GFS  it is trending more progressive as well. Meanwhile, the dews here are insane. My location is in the upper 60's,  but other locations much higher. Very gross for almost October 1 st. 

Looking at the satellite time lapse just now and seeing the back edge of the cloud deck rapidly advancing to the NE.  Should go partly to mostly sunny later . 

Humidity 93%
Wind Speed S 8 mph
Barometer 29.91 in (1012.6 mb)
Dewpoint 66°F (19°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 28 Sep 7:51 am EDT

 

Progressive is good. Not looking forward to more heavy rain. Hope it is correct.

I am looking forward to Fall weather with abundant sunshine returning later in the week.

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Just now, CAPE said:

Progressive is good. Not looking forward to more heavy rain. Hope it is correct.

Looking forward to Fall weather with abundant sunshine returning later in the week.

Me as well. Seems the WPC shifted ever so slightly the heaviest Rains to our East. By a hair, but better than deep red shades. 

 

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1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Just cut the grass -- whew it's humid!

So October 2 this Friday looks a little different from last October 2 huh?  DCA reached of 98  and IAD 96.  Yuk.

That should have been a harbinger of our winter last year.

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Update on the LWX Radar: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202009281850

Looks like no sooner than the 16th of next month. 

On Saturday, technicians from the NWS Radar Operations Center 
(ROC), based in Norman, Oklahoma, determined that a primary 
component for turning the radar antenna, the bull-gear, needs 
replacement. This repair will require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of 
equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore the radar.

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7 minutes ago, UIWWildthing said:

Update on the LWX Radar: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202009281850

Looks like no sooner than the 16th of next month. 

On Saturday, technicians from the NWS Radar Operations Center 
(ROC), based in Norman, Oklahoma, determined that a primary 
component for turning the radar antenna, the bull-gear, needs 
replacement. This repair will require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of 
equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore the radar.

I've been tapping into KDOX, but it obviously doesn't have great coverage our way.  Can anyone suggest a good alternative while LWX is down?

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25 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

I've been tapping into KDOX, but it obviously doesn't have great coverage our way.  Can anyone suggest a good alternative while LWX is down?

 

18 hours ago, mdhokie said:

https://www.marylandwx.com/radar-data/

Is a good source for radars and I've been using it since lwx is down.

Also, weather underground was mentioned.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=39.291&lon=-76.611&zoom=8&radar=1&wxstn=0

 

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If you are in the DC metro region use the Airport terminal radars. As long as you have access to the radar sites at TDCA, TADW, TIAD, TBWI and they do not go down we will be fine.

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1 hour ago, southmdwatcher said:

If you are in the DC metro region use the Airport terminal radars. As long as you have access to the radar sites at TDCA, TADW, TIAD, TBWI and they do not go down we will be fine.

I've tried looking for them. Do you happen to have their links?

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25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can somebody post a couple of total precip maps? I’ll admit it, I’m just too tired to search. Hey, I’m being honest :D

Here ya go 

 

fill_98qwbg.gif?1601334671090

 

 

d13_fill.gif?1601334627743

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3 hours ago, George BM said:

I've tried looking for them. Do you happen to have their links?

Sorry, I am not sure if there are any links. Those terminal radars are available with Radarscope, GR products

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I am sure we go dry for the winter. But, rather active again, Friday now looking not so hot,  and another system early next week.  

 

From Mt Holly AFD

Thursday night/Friday: Guidance has come into better agreement
that a weak coastal low will form Thursday night and pass
sufficiently close to our area to warrant appreciable
precipitation chances. Consequently raised PoPs a fair amount
this package (they may need to be raised further in subsequent
packages), but given that the low will be weak and fast-moving
expect rainfall totals will be limited to a few tenths at most.
By Friday afternoon cooler and drier air will filter in behind
the low and expect rainfall to generally come to a quick end.
Highs will likely only top out in the low to mid 60s in most
locations.

Saturday/Sunday: Dry and seasonably cool conditions will
prevail through the weekend with daytime highs generally in the
mid 60s and overnight lows in the low-mid 40s. Some frost will
be possible in the colder spots of eastern PA Saturday but more-
so Sunday morning as the radiational cooling setup looks fairly
good (at least 5 days out)

Monday: Another shortwave and associated area of low pressure
may impact the area on Monday but details are fuzzy at this
point, with the EC/CMC depicting a stronger system (and closer
to the coast) relative to the GFS. Medium-range Chc. PoPs seem
appropriate at the moment.

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Seems we have been getting these Fall - NAO episodes recently, and then they vanish during the winter months. 

 

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@frd  I have been burned the past few years by assuming our great late fall patterns should resurface during the winter.  A lot of other folks on here warned against it and I guess you just have to take your lumps as a weather nut and...live and learn.

With that said...it looks like the eps has been steadily hinting at some mid Oct heat coming, along with a continuation of our recent dry conditions..  Id be ok with a week of 70's before the steady slide into winter.

cE1zucH.png

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

I have been burned the past few years by assuming our great late fall patterns should resurface during the winter.  A lot of other folks on here warned against it and I guess you just have to take your lumps as a weather nut and...live and learn.

With that said...it looks like the eps has been steadily hinting at some mid Oct heat coming, along with a continuation of our recent dry conditions..  Id be ok with a week of 70's before the steady slide into winter.

I share your thoughts. The last 3 winters did not show the real pattern until after December 20th. Actually last 3 years there has been a huge rise in temps after December 20th. Along with that the last 2 winters had record or near record high NH / NA snow cover early on, only to have that North America snow cover rapidly decline by mid Jan. of both winters to very minimal levels. ( Sorry Judah ...ah the poor SAI and total snow cover = no value )  

So, as you mentioned,  in this new day and age do not be fooled by anything that appears to look favorable until you measure a foot of snow outside your door.   

Hey, I am still open to all options, but I will keep the bar low and exceptions in check. 

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