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September Discobs 2020


George BM
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Update on the LWX Radar: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202009281850

Looks like no sooner than the 16th of next month. 

On Saturday, technicians from the NWS Radar Operations Center 
(ROC), based in Norman, Oklahoma, determined that a primary 
component for turning the radar antenna, the bull-gear, needs 
replacement. This repair will require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of 
equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore the radar.
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7 minutes ago, UIWWildthing said:

Update on the LWX Radar: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202009281850

Looks like no sooner than the 16th of next month. 

On Saturday, technicians from the NWS Radar Operations Center 
(ROC), based in Norman, Oklahoma, determined that a primary 
component for turning the radar antenna, the bull-gear, needs 
replacement. This repair will require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of 
equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore the radar.

I've been tapping into KDOX, but it obviously doesn't have great coverage our way.  Can anyone suggest a good alternative while LWX is down?

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25 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

I've been tapping into KDOX, but it obviously doesn't have great coverage our way.  Can anyone suggest a good alternative while LWX is down?

 

18 hours ago, mdhokie said:

https://www.marylandwx.com/radar-data/

Is a good source for radars and I've been using it since lwx is down.

Also, weather underground was mentioned.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=39.291&lon=-76.611&zoom=8&radar=1&wxstn=0

 

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I am sure we go dry for the winter. But, rather active again, Friday now looking not so hot,  and another system early next week.  

 

From Mt Holly AFD

Thursday night/Friday: Guidance has come into better agreement
that a weak coastal low will form Thursday night and pass
sufficiently close to our area to warrant appreciable
precipitation chances. Consequently raised PoPs a fair amount
this package (they may need to be raised further in subsequent
packages), but given that the low will be weak and fast-moving
expect rainfall totals will be limited to a few tenths at most.
By Friday afternoon cooler and drier air will filter in behind
the low and expect rainfall to generally come to a quick end.
Highs will likely only top out in the low to mid 60s in most
locations.

Saturday/Sunday: Dry and seasonably cool conditions will
prevail through the weekend with daytime highs generally in the
mid 60s and overnight lows in the low-mid 40s. Some frost will
be possible in the colder spots of eastern PA Saturday but more-
so Sunday morning as the radiational cooling setup looks fairly
good (at least 5 days out)

Monday: Another shortwave and associated area of low pressure
may impact the area on Monday but details are fuzzy at this
point, with the EC/CMC depicting a stronger system (and closer
to the coast) relative to the GFS. Medium-range Chc. PoPs seem
appropriate at the moment.
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@frd  I have been burned the past few years by assuming our great late fall patterns should resurface during the winter.  A lot of other folks on here warned against it and I guess you just have to take your lumps as a weather nut and...live and learn.

With that said...it looks like the eps has been steadily hinting at some mid Oct heat coming, along with a continuation of our recent dry conditions..  Id be ok with a week of 70's before the steady slide into winter.

cE1zucH.png

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

I have been burned the past few years by assuming our great late fall patterns should resurface during the winter.  A lot of other folks on here warned against it and I guess you just have to take your lumps as a weather nut and...live and learn.

With that said...it looks like the eps has been steadily hinting at some mid Oct heat coming, along with a continuation of our recent dry conditions..  Id be ok with a week of 70's before the steady slide into winter.

I share your thoughts. The last 3 winters did not show the real pattern until after December 20th. Actually last 3 years there has been a huge rise in temps after December 20th. Along with that the last 2 winters had record or near record high NH / NA snow cover early on, only to have that North America snow cover rapidly decline by mid Jan. of both winters to very minimal levels. ( Sorry Judah ...ah the poor SAI and total snow cover = no value )  

So, as you mentioned,  in this new day and age do not be fooled by anything that appears to look favorable until you measure a foot of snow outside your door.   

Hey, I am still open to all options, but I will keep the bar low and exceptions in check. 

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21 minutes ago, frd said:

Pouring here. Not welcomed at all. Figures, after I seeded. This is a separate area of rainfall from that main area to our West.  

Current downpour over 10 minutes and would do the summer thunderstorms justice.

If you have straw or you seeded existing grass I don’t think the rain will hurt your seed. Probably help to have some heavy rain drive that seed to the soil

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17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If you have straw or you seeded existing grass I don’t think the rain will hurt your seed. Probably help to have some heavy rain drive that seed to the soil

Good comment,  thank you. I over seeded an existing lawn. Height of grass should prevent wash away. I just worry, that's all.  I also core plugged it too with a machine. From a weather perspective looking forward to the cool down with nice morning dew,  and then a gradually warm up as we near mid month.  

 

 

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Same old story, as mentioned a bit ago that area of heavy rain meant business and has caused a FA

NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0180.200929T1926Z-200929T2330Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Delaware PA-
326 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Northern New Castle County in northern Delaware...
  Southwestern Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 730 PM EDT.

* At 326 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding
  is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area.

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Wilmington, Newark, Chester, Pennsville, Carneys Point, Elsmere, New
Castle, Penns Grove, Delaware City, Newport, Arden, and Wilmington
Manor.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 1.
Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 2 and 23

 

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42 minutes ago, frd said:

Good comment,  thank you. I over seeded an existing lawn. Height of grass should prevent wash away. I just worry, that's all.  I also core plugged it too with a machine. From a weather perspective looking forward to the cool down with nice morning dew,  and then a gradually warm up as we near mid month.  

If you’ve aerated, then the rain will wash some seeds into the holes that you made and be the perfect medium to germinate; cool, dark, and moist. In a couple of weeks, the lawn will remind you of a man that got a hair transplant with new grass shoots sprouting from the holes.

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52 minutes ago, frd said:

Good comment,  thank you. I over seeded an existing lawn. Height of grass should prevent wash away. I just worry, that's all.  I also core plugged it too with a machine. From a weather perspective looking forward to the cool down with nice morning dew,  and then a gradually warm up as we near mid month.  

 

 

The next time you core your lawn do it with the grass really high. Wait a day or two and then cut the lawn short. Doing this will obliterate the plugs giving you a bunch of loose soil sitting there that will aid in the germination of your seed.

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8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

If you’ve aerated, then the rain will wash some seeds into the holes that you made and be the perfect medium to germinate; cool, dark, and moist. In a couple of weeks, the lawn will remind you of a man that got a hair transplant with new grass shoots sprouting from the holes.

I agree with this one part in particular. The dark part. You can plant seed in bare soil, cover part of it with straw and leave the other part uncovered and the covered seed will immediately germinate while the uncovered either won’t germinate at all or will be very slow to do so. That darkness matters for seed that is not fully covered by soil.

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