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September Discobs 2020


George BM
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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest Euro is further east with the mid week  low then 0z ...and takes the rain for mby with it . I95 and eastern shore do well ( that's a surprise :D)

Man I hope not. I don't want to drown the new grass. I wish I could will it in your direction. Plenty of time though.

12z GFS has the heavier rain for the lower eastern shore/southern DE, but still an inch+ NW of there and into your area.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Man I hope not. I don't want to drown the new grass. I wish I could will it in your direction. Plenty of time though.

12z GFS has the heavier rain for the lower eastern shore/southern DE, but still an inch+ NW of there and into your area.

I'll get this drought out of the way in time for the November through March frozen qpf train:whistle:

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It’s been about 3 weeks since we’ve had any measurable rain out here. Basically all of the 0.9” fell the first few days of the month. 

Same here but less lol. The good thing is with those 3 frosts in a row I might have the earliest last grass cut ever ...and by a couple weeks probably.  Between the frost and super dry conditions.  I'll be gasing up the snow blower soon . Wait a minute. ...I don't have one . Oiling up the and sharpening the shovels .

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WPC has the area in a slight risk for excessive rain day 3.

 

From Mount Holly-

Hazards: The longer the front stalls or at least slows, the longer our region will be in southerly return flow (resulting in low level moisture advection). Consequently, precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches will be possible, especially over the coastal plains. The 90th percentile of pwat at IAD for late September is about 1.5 inches, so needless to say if this happens, pwats will be well above normal. Additionally the warm cloud layer will likely be very deep for late September. Also, low and mid level flow could be close to parallel of the front, which could increase the threat for training storms/showers. Therefore, will mention the potential for heavy rain in the HWO. However, have chosen to hold off on a flash flood watch at this point given the poor run to run consistency we have seen so far, especially with the timing of the front (timing will be key to the threat for heavy rain).

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Looks like a legit heavy rain threat for much of the region this week, with both the GFS and Euro digging the UL energy and slowing the front.

gfs_z500_vort_us_14.png

 

 

It's close fmby.  I'll continue to keep an eye on it but Gfs and Euro both still too far east and concentrate moderate to heavy rains i95 and east atm. 

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It's close fmby.  I'll continue to keep an eye on it but Gfs and Euro both still too far east and concentrate moderate to heavy rains i95 and east atm. 

I wish I could send it your way. These late season tiger mosquitoes need to go. I really don't want to have to do a malathion nuke job at this point, but I may have too lol.

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26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I wish I could send it your way. These late season tiger mosquitoes need to go. I really don't want to have to do a malathion nuke job at this point, but I may have too lol.

Nuke job would be welcome here

The main trough to the northwest isn't leaving enough space for our ull to really amplify.  It's kind of acting to only kick it northeast.  If we could get that trough to hang back a bit more .

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