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September Discobs 2020

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40 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro shows less then 2 tenths here through Tuesday.  Hopefully the beast trough mid week gives some much needed rain up here . H5 looks darn impressive mid long range Euro.

What's your September total?  I'm at 0.9" for the month at Deep Creek.

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12 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro shows less then 2 tenths here through Tuesday.  Hopefully the beast trough mid week gives some much needed rain up here . H5 looks darn impressive mid long range Euro.

Latest Euro took most of that away now:lol:

Relying on the Wednesday Through Friday time frame 

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47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest Euro took most of that away now:lol:

Relying on the Wednesday Through Friday time frame 

You just may have to wait for your November paste bomb to dent that dry spell.:ph34r:

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17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

WPC goes with higher  QPF in latest update. 

..Weather/Hazard Highlights...

 

Ample energy seems set to dig into the potent upper trough/low

position will push cold fronts across the central and eastern U.S.

through the period and provide focus for rain. Amplification

trends have slowed the eastward translation of a main lead front

and reinforcement as contingent on uncertain stream separation. A

significant WPC frontal continuity adjustment was applied to

address timing. Modest to locally heavy rainfall totals may focus

from the Appalachians eastward for the first part of the workweek,

albeit with trough axis differences affecting wave development and

moisture inflow potential.

 

 

p168i.gif?1601033546

 

 

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Latest JMA evolves us from the chill at the end of September  and early October to warmer pattern, pretty much everywhere,  by Weeks 3 and 4. According to Ben,  recent Ninas normally do not produce cold Octobers in the East. 

 

 

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Went to the beach recently and observed huge amounts of sand have been lost due to recent huge waves battering the surf zone from offshore hurricanes and the effect of the moon phase. Also, opposite of many past Septembers, the surf zone temps have really dropped off quickly. 

Image

 

 

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12 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Latest JMA evolves us from the chill at the end of September  and early October to warmer pattern, pretty much everywhere,  by Weeks 3 and 4. According to Ben,  recent Ninas normally do not produce cold Octobers in the East. 

 

 

CFS Weeklies concur. The trough in the east for the first week of Oct may be transient. GEFS wants to hang onto at least a weak trough into the second week though.

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

CFS Weeklies concur. The trough in the east for the first week of Oct may be transient. GEFS wants to hang onto at least a weak trough into the second week though.

Pac jet will not be denied. 

 

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2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Haven't read back in the thread yet - but it sounds like the LWX radar had a pretty serious failure. 

LWX's failure may be in part to the actual disk it rotates on failing. A crew from the ROC in Norman will be out this weekend for a real diagnosis, but this is complicated by the fact that ROC personnel are also trying to rebuild from Lake Charles from the ground up simultaneously. In my opinion, given the fact that we are edging out of peak severe season and have 4 terminal Doppler radars (5 if you county Philly taking care of LWX's extreme north eastern part of the CWA), Lake Charles should get preference.

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LWX's failure may be in part to the actual disk it rotates on failing. A crew from the ROC in Norman will be out this weekend for a real diagnosis, but this is complicated by the fact that ROC personnel are also trying to rebuild from Lake Charles from the ground up simultaneously. In my opinion, given the fact that we are edging out of peak severe season and have 4 terminal Doppler radars (5 if you county Philly taking care of LWX's extreme north eastern part of the CWA), Lake Charles should get preference.

What I found interesting is that this failure occurred right after an upgrade or other maintenance. Assuming it's just a coincidence. 

Lake Charles should DEFINITELY get preference. Is there some sort of contingency that allows them to work on multiple 88Ds at once? Rare case but what if a major storm took out 2 or 3 radars in short order. I guess it's a personnel numbers type thing - can't imagine there's a ton of folks able to do work on radars. 

ETA: This failure probably guarantees the event of the season on Tuesday ;) 

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This is going to be the second system in a row where the rain we get is from remnant tropical. The third event in a row with a tropical connection (There was tropical moisture from 94L on Sept 10th). There have been four storm systems (including this one just starting to affect us now) to affect us this month. Of those four systems only the first system (the one that gave some of us severe weather on September 3rd) did not have tropical connections. 

... Man... I REALLY need to work on my grammar...

Hopefully you all understood what I said. 

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0.60" here so far.

Getting heavy downpours now. Wasn't really expecting this. even though most of the mesos yesterday did show a half inch+ here, the latest NAM runs backed off and had the better rains to my west.

Official forecast was a tenth to a quarter.

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The remnants of Beta behaving more like an Alpha here.

0.72" with another heavy shower rolling through.

Hopefully its about done. It would be nice to salvage some of the day.

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

0.00":sun:

Mist falling atm

Yours is coming :weenie:

Day 11 image not available

As wet as it looks this week, and with the last section of grass germinated and coming up, I think my sprinkler will be retired for the year. If your yard somehow gets missed again, I will overnight it. 

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yours is coming :weenie:

Day 11 image not available

As wet as it looks this week, and with the last section of grass germinated and coming up, I think my sprinkler will be retired for the year. If your yard somehow gets missed again, I will overnight it. 

If it's only one... then it better be feeeeet long lol

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Recording a T for last night.  16 days since the last measurable rain here above a T.  Looks like that will probably end next week but a heck of a dry stretch.

Fall color has started here on the margins....greens are dulled and the deer are freaking everywhere.  

The fall smallmouth bite is on as well.  Here are a few pics from the other eve while fishing the rapids...up river from Harpers Ferry.  7 smallmouth and 1 walleye! Love this time of year....

8jEfuXt.jpg

iejZxRN.jpg

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Just now, nj2va said:

Is that total since July or just this month? 

That's September lol.

Each of the last 3, if not 4 months have been significantly above normal.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yet another super wet month here, going back to at least July.

8.68" to this point.

.60" September 

Euro fwiw brings a 998 low right over central Md Wed so that should deliver some rain:yikes:

  • Weenie 1

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