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September Discobs 2020


George BM
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Well, if I’m going to do hand waving weenie talk, maybe it’s not so bad we’re getting a good pattern in late September and early October. Then perhaps we get a 4-6 week recycle and can get a decent cold pattern for December?  Before we break out the shorts and palm trees for January and February.

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Not saying there is a correlation, someone needs to confirm, but the Northern Atlantic is crazy and wondering about wave breaking as the NAO is set to tank on some modeling and the AO is a going down too .  Teddy producing some crazy winds and waves as well. 

Also, of interest , is the changing SST anomaly near the East Coast from the constant stream of swells and upwelling the past several weeks produced by the recent offshore hurricanes.

 

 

   

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Well, if I’m going to do hand waving weenie talk, maybe it’s not so bad we’re getting a good pattern in late September and early October. Then perhaps we get a 4-6 week recycle and can get a decent cold pattern for December?  Before we break out the shorts and palm trees for January and February.

Was last year the decent pattern in Nov? I am definitely not the best when it comes to remembering past winters but I feel like we had a great pattern in Nov that provided all the head fakes of decent winter around these parts. I’m sure there isn’t much correlation between any of it but at least it’s something different!

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Was last year the decent pattern in Nov? I am definitely not the best when it comes to remembering past winters but I feel like we had a great pattern in Nov that provided all the head fakes of decent winter around these parts. I’m sure there isn’t much correlation between any of it but at least it’s something different!

November of last year ended up with below average temperatures overall. So yeah probably last year.... but then again also the year before including the November 15th, 2018 snow event for some.

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25 minutes ago, George BM said:

November of last year ended up with below average temperatures overall. So yeah probably last year.... but then again also the year before including the November 15th, 2018 snow event for some.

Multiple snow events in Deep Creek last November....actually might have had more November snow than December snow there but I'm bad at remembering every detail of winter.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

Seems in this new day and age, we tend not to stay dry for too long.  That solution also looks to have severe implications for the South. A huge dive in the NAO and the AO coming up shortly, with a pretty good consensus that it verifies. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

Wondering about the Euro verification scores last few days. Heard East of the Mississippi it is not doing that hot recently during the past 30 to 45 days.  Maybe the GFS goes for the win.   I re seeded a little time ago. I don't need flash flooding again. 

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

Euro shows less then 2 tenths here through Tuesday.  Hopefully the beast trough mid week gives some much needed rain up here . H5 looks darn impressive mid long range Euro.

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17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

WPC goes with higher  QPF in latest update. 

..Weather/Hazard Highlights...

 

Ample energy seems set to dig into the potent upper trough/low

position will push cold fronts across the central and eastern U.S.

through the period and provide focus for rain. Amplification

trends have slowed the eastward translation of a main lead front

and reinforcement as contingent on uncertain stream separation. A

significant WPC frontal continuity adjustment was applied to

address timing. Modest to locally heavy rainfall totals may focus

from the Appalachians eastward for the first part of the workweek,

albeit with trough axis differences affecting wave development and

moisture inflow potential.

 

 

p168i.gif?1601033546

 

 

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Went to the beach recently and observed huge amounts of sand have been lost due to recent huge waves battering the surf zone from offshore hurricanes and the effect of the moon phase. Also, opposite of many past Septembers, the surf zone temps have really dropped off quickly. 

Image

 

 

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12 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Latest JMA evolves us from the chill at the end of September  and early October to warmer pattern, pretty much everywhere,  by Weeks 3 and 4. According to Ben,  recent Ninas normally do not produce cold Octobers in the East. 

 

 

CFS Weeklies concur. The trough in the east for the first week of Oct may be transient. GEFS wants to hang onto at least a weak trough into the second week though.

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png

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2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Haven't read back in the thread yet - but it sounds like the LWX radar had a pretty serious failure. 

LWX's failure may be in part to the actual disk it rotates on failing. A crew from the ROC in Norman will be out this weekend for a real diagnosis, but this is complicated by the fact that ROC personnel are also trying to rebuild from Lake Charles from the ground up simultaneously. In my opinion, given the fact that we are edging out of peak severe season and have 4 terminal Doppler radars (5 if you county Philly taking care of LWX's extreme north eastern part of the CWA), Lake Charles should get preference.

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