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George BM

September Discobs 2020

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32 but no frost.

the growing season seems to be over out here—so many vendors from the Charles Town farmers market posting pictures on social media of frozen plants after 3 nights of freezing temperatures. 

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Hoping for good weather next Tuesday evening. We're driving to Wallops for the Anteres launch at 10:30 pm. Everyone in this sub forum should be able to see it, the Anteres is the bigger(est) rocket that can be launched from WAL.

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

32F again this morning with pretty good frost.  3 straight nights of freezing temps in mid September.   Truly amazing.

Even more remarkable is that KOKV hasn’t had a temperature above 70 in 8 days in the middle of September. Love to see the last time that happened.

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Looks warm for awhile. Probably 5+ degrees above average in general over the next 5-6 days, before we get what looks like an impressive trough digging down from Canada mid next week with a big PNA ridge out west.

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Well, if I’m going to do hand waving weenie talk, maybe it’s not so bad we’re getting a good pattern in late September and early October. Then perhaps we get a 4-6 week recycle and can get a decent cold pattern for December?  Before we break out the shorts and palm trees for January and February.

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Not saying there is a correlation, someone needs to confirm, but the Northern Atlantic is crazy and wondering about wave breaking as the NAO is set to tank on some modeling and the AO is a going down too .  Teddy producing some crazy winds and waves as well. 

Also, of interest , is the changing SST anomaly near the East Coast from the constant stream of swells and upwelling the past several weeks produced by the recent offshore hurricanes.

 

 

   

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Well, if I’m going to do hand waving weenie talk, maybe it’s not so bad we’re getting a good pattern in late September and early October. Then perhaps we get a 4-6 week recycle and can get a decent cold pattern for December?  Before we break out the shorts and palm trees for January and February.

Was last year the decent pattern in Nov? I am definitely not the best when it comes to remembering past winters but I feel like we had a great pattern in Nov that provided all the head fakes of decent winter around these parts. I’m sure there isn’t much correlation between any of it but at least it’s something different!

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The Euro has not been that great recently,  and I hate the weeklies ( flip flops and all ), but there is a general consensus for a possible average to below average October in these parts.  

 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Maybe an early season snow chase at Canaan.

Maybe an early season snow chase at Canaan from moisture on the west side of a decent tropical remnant hit in the DMV region. :weenie:

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Was last year the decent pattern in Nov? I am definitely not the best when it comes to remembering past winters but I feel like we had a great pattern in Nov that provided all the head fakes of decent winter around these parts. I’m sure there isn’t much correlation between any of it but at least it’s something different!

November of last year ended up with below average temperatures overall. So yeah probably last year.... but then again also the year before including the November 15th, 2018 snow event for some.

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25 minutes ago, George BM said:

November of last year ended up with below average temperatures overall. So yeah probably last year.... but then again also the year before including the November 15th, 2018 snow event for some.

Multiple snow events in Deep Creek last November....actually might have had more November snow than December snow there but I'm bad at remembering every detail of winter.

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We’ve had 2 November’s in a row with good, cold patterns that have flipped to puke in early or mid December.

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GEFS is officially upgraded to the FV3 dynamical core with today’s 12z suite. Early reviews seem quite positive. 

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Will be interesting to track this,  as well as the reliability of the model forecast.

Many previous seasons have had poor forecasts focused on certain indices, ( NAO, AO, EPO, etc. )  including given biases. 

That is a very significant drop. 

AO.thumb.gif.d41f2b2b07b4755b9e211433398a3e6c.gif

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS is officially upgraded to the FV3 dynamical core with today’s 12z suite. Early reviews seem quite positive. 

It has been very good with tropical 

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12 hours ago, nj2va said:

Put the A/C back on.

Same. At least in the afternoon, our house warms up real quick from 3pm or so as the sun just beats into the backside of the house. 

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lwx.PNG.7ccf6d51150106fbff0c8d7927871afd.PNG

Yikes. Thank the gods we have 4 terminal dopplers nearby. Hopefully Infrastructure Week™ will fix this.

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14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

lwx.PNG.7ccf6d51150106fbff0c8d7927871afd.PNG

Yikes. Thank the gods we have 4 terminal dopplers nearby. Hopefully Infrastructure Week™ will fix this.

 

@yoda Hmm... LWX radar down indefinitely... a strong trough moving in early/mid next week... Verifying Moderate risk day, here we come! 

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Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

Seems in this new day and age, we tend not to stay dry for too long.  That solution also looks to have severe implications for the South. A huge dive in the NAO and the AO coming up shortly, with a pretty good consensus that it verifies. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

Wondering about the Euro verification scores last few days. Heard East of the Mississippi it is not doing that hot recently during the past 30 to 45 days.  Maybe the GFS goes for the win.   I re seeded a little time ago. I don't need flash flooding again. 

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro emphatically ends our short dry period. 2-3” through the next 7 days. Entertaining solution for next week. Gfs drier and focused east of the Bay with a narrow heavy rain strip.

Euro shows less then 2 tenths here through Tuesday.  Hopefully the beast trough mid week gives some much needed rain up here . H5 looks darn impressive mid long range Euro.

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