wdrag Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Added unexpected svr reports from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, wdrag said: Added unexpected svr reports from this morning. Going to need to update Red Bank for a Tornado. See picture a few posts above...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Had 0.32" with t storm this am...7 of last 8 days has seen measurable rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Clearing working through NW/N-NJ and should see sun in most places in the next hour or by 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Euripides said: Pic from Red Bank sent from my sister. Not her picture but sent from a friend who is a Police officer in Red bank I am not sure that`s Red Bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 .34 of an inch of rain today and 2 inches in the past 4 days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, PB-99 said: I am not sure that`s Red Bank. Could the pic be from Rumson looking toward Red Bank? I wish my sister had taken the pic as yes I know when you get a pic from someone else the validity goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 19, 2020 Author Share Posted August 19, 2020 Picked up 0.30" of rain so far today with the storms that moved thru this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Euripides said: Going to need to update Red Bank for a Tornado. See picture a few posts above...... saw them... it may be that PHI-EM are doing storm survey right now. You'll probably know sooner than I, but I doubt if anything will officially pot on this for a little while, pending data assessment. If they do go with a TOR..will update the graphic when I get a chance. Thanks and Later, Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 26 minutes ago, Euripides said: Could the pic be from Rumson looking toward Red Bank? I wish my sister had taken the pic as yes I know when you get a pic from someone else the validity goes down. I'm seeing lots of tree damage but no video or pics of the tornado/funnel itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 breaking: the euro is still a furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 pop up shower here bringing a quick burst of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 Looks like good sleeping weather tonight, may even be some 40s well north and west. Signs of things to come, of course it looks like some warm weather again next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 90-Degree Days during the next 10-day period: GFS 6, EURO 4, GEM 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 A little sun late got me up to 73° for high temp with 0.32" rain for day....Recent cooler temps have lowered temp departure here to +1.1°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 75/64 split today. 0.54” of precip. 87/64 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 NWS has temps approaching 90 starting Sunday and remaining in the upper 80s to around 90 thru mid next week, for the NYC area. Sounds ok to me, good pool weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 19, 2020 Share Posted August 19, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Pretty good model agreement between the Euro and GFS. Looks like Quebec will be the place to avoid the heat. Probably some severe convection along the front when it eventually sags south. Heat’s not surging over top of this area anymore-aimed right at us unlike early summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is the first time this summer that the models are indicating that the Bermuda high will build westward into the Southeast. All our other 95° or greater major heat events had the high elongating toward New England with onshore flow. So this may be our first legit westerly flow heat event. Does that mean more of a dry heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Temperatures already dropping into the upper 50s in central NY around the Catskills. I'm sure plenty of 40s tonight for those folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Another short-lived cool shot is overspreading the region in the wake of the showers and thundershowers and moved across the area earlier today. Overnight, parts of the region could see their coolest readings so far this month. Noticeably warmer weather will likely arrive this weekend. Readings could approach or reach 90° in much of the region early next week. Out west, extreme heat again prevailed in the Southwest. Select high temperatures included: Blythe, CA: 116° (old record: 114°, 1973) Death Valley, CA: 125° (tied record set in 2001) Flagstaff: 89° (old record: 88°, 1928 and 1973) Kingman, AZ: 107° Lake Havasu City, AZ: 117° (old record: 116°, 2011) Las Vegas: 113° (old record: 111°, 1937 and 1992) Mesa, AZ: 112° (old record: 108°, 2019) Needles, CA: 118° (old record: 117°, 2018) Palm Springs, CA: 114° Phoenix: 115° (old record: 113°, 1986) Sacramento: 101° Stockton, CA: 105° Tucson, AZ: 111° (old record: 110°, 1915) Yuma, AZ: 112° Death Valley reached 125° or above for the fifth consecutive day. That further extended its August record streak. The previous August record of three days was set during August 11-13, 1933 and tied during August 6-8, 1998. In addition, Phoenix has now registered a record-tying four consecutive days with temperatures of 115° or above for the second time this summer. No previous year had more than one such stretch. Phoenix has an implied 98% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.5° - 96.9°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. Since recordkeeping began in August 1895, two years saw both July and August rank among Phoenix's 20 warmest months on record: 2007 and 2019. It is all but certain that 2020 will become the third such case. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop. The SOI was +28.46. That was the highest SOI figure since April 2, 2018 when the SOI was +31.29. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.394. On August 18, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.698 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.835. The MJO's recent passage through Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been fairly uncommon during the August 10-25 timeframe. During the 1981-2019 period only 2002 and 2004 saw the MJO move through Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during this period. Both cases were followed by a warmer than normal September. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 8/19 ACY: 82 PHL: 81 BLM: 80 New Brnswck: 79 EWR: 78 TTN: 78 JFK: 76 TEB: 76 LGA: 76 NYC: 75 ISP: 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Clouds lingered loner today than expected like a dinner guest who wont leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is the first time this summer that the models are indicating that the Bermuda high will build westward into the Southeast. All our other 95° or greater major heat events had the high elongating toward New England with onshore flow. So this may be our first legit westerly flow heat event. Lower DT could allow for the highest temps of the season. Lot of time to track . Been tracking this possibility that heat out west is abnormally intense and it bleeds east peaking Wed - Fri next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said: Does that mean more of a dry heat? euro has dewpoints in the 60s in nj/nyc, 70s on long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 5 hours ago, SACRUS said: Lower DT could allow for the highest temps of the season. Lot of time to track . Been tracking this possibility that heat out west is abnormally intense and it bleeds east peaking Wed - Fri next week. I will confidently take the under on that. It would have to be above 98 for that to happen and I don't see anything like that in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 81degs., or 6.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.7[77.5]. Should be about +2.9[78.3] by the 28th. 90-Degree Days during next 10 days: GFS 6, EURO 2, GEM 1--their Ensembles have none between them. 67*(73%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 76* by 3pm. Ran up to 84* by 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 MPO finally ended their record above 50° streak. All the top 5 records are since 2012. MOUNT POCONO CLEAR 47 45 93 CALM Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 50 for MOUNT POCONO POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 63 2020-08-19 2 60 2019-08-23 3 48 2016-08-21 - 48 2008-08-12 4 45 2013-08-04 5 43 2012-08-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Had a low of 54.3 in Muttontown & 55.6 in Syosset this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 20, 2020 Share Posted August 20, 2020 Low of 60 here. Lowest since June 17th (low of 58). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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