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donsutherland1

April 2020

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The next 8 days are averaging 51degs., or just Normal.

Month to date is +3.8[53.2].       Should be about +2.0[52.2] by the 18th.

The next 17 days are averaging -5.0[50.0](43/57).       It should be about -1.0 by the 27th.

40* here at 6am.     41* at 7am.  43* at 9am.

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at first  I thought I was looking at pollen or blossoms but it is in fact snow. flurries..occasionally enough to call it a snow shower, 44

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just had a few snowflakes here in SW Suffolk.

Same here.  I also had a quick squall late last night.

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5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Same here.  I also had a quick squall late last night.

That’s all we can do well at in the snow department the last few winters 

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14 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Same here.  I also had a quick squall late last night.

Portions of Maine set a new April low pressure record.

 

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Just had a burst of snow and grauple on the uws. Might be the warmest surface temp I have ever seen real snow

There’s a mid-level pocket of extremely cold air for April sitting over us. I’m 47 degrees with snow and graupel showers. The last time I can remember temps this warm with snow falling was 2004 I believe if memory serves me correct 

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4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems like we should have had another wind advisory today 

Agree... Even gusting over 40 mph on my somewhat sheltered anemometer.

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Verification. Below pasted from website. Brief analysis as time is limited.

 

https://www.lightinthestorm.com/

 

 

Brief Analysis:

Snowfall departures across the CONUS were generally congruous with expectations spatially – with the storm track favoring the Rockies, Upper Mid-west, and Northern New England for near or above normal snowfall. Snowfall forecast for Mid-Atlantic was accurate with well below average totals. NYC-BOS snowfall totals were forecasted to be below normal, with the reality featuring well below average totals.

Overall snowfall forecast for the CONUS = A-

Temperature wise, departures were well above normal across the East, versus a forecast for solidly above normal. The Southeast US and SW US were well forecast. The Plains/NW US were warmer than forecast.

Overall temperature forecast for the CONUS = C/C-

Local NYC region temperature forecast = C/C-

Local NYC snowfall forecast = B/B-

As to the pattern: forecast was +NAO, +EPO, -PNA, and near neutral AO. The only flaw in the pattern outlook was a more positive AO than expected for the second half of the winter, otherwise the z500 coincided very well with expectations.

Overall pattern, 500mb forecast for the NHEM = A-

 

Thus, the overall winter 2019-20 outlook yields a grade of: B-/B.

This was a hit, and a very good forecast overall, with the primary flaw being the magnitude of the warmth, thus lowering the final grade .

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Isotherm's winter outlook was by far the most accurate I've seen this winter and pretty much nailed the CONUS snowfall gradient. Don't sell yourself short, this was a job well done, as usual. 

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12 minutes ago, KrazyKeyur said:

heavy flurries here..

Was out grilling some chicken and had wet snowflakes hitting me here in Point Pleasant Beach with a temp around 48.  

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About 2" in shady areas in Deleware county ~2000'. 32° even some blowing snow, must be quite cold aloft(haven't looked at analysis). Just down to light snow/flurries. Started flurrying after the triboro bridge on my way up. Legitimate snow from Wurtsboro up.

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