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Baroclinic Zone

March 24, 2020 - Coastal Threat

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GYX forecast for KASH:

   Probabilistic Snowfall: 5"

   1 in 10%: 4"

It's been 8 years since I've done a statistics class, but this doesn't make sense right?

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19 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

GYX forecast for KASH:

   Probabilistic Snowfall: 5"

   1 in 10%: 4"

It's been 8 years since I've done a statistics class, but this doesn't make sense right?

Don't hate the playah. Hate the game.

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Not sure if this was shared.  

I'll take the over along the 495 corridor 

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NWS better bring them up in Middlesex/W Essex county....and prob S ORH county to N CT.

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Ray-Ray jackpot? 

A lot of the mesos are showing that now too...they love Ray's area up into SE NH and far S ME.

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56 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Brutal map

Box seems to be in agreement with the TV mets I watched this morning. Most had a coating to 2 for the Merrimack valley area. Temp is a bit cooler than forecasted

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1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

GYX forecast for KASH:

   Probabilistic Snowfall: 5"

   1 in 10%: 4"

It's been 8 years since I've done a statistics class, but this doesn't make sense right?

I think GYX is in progress of upping the forecast totals, and only the "expected" amount has been revised, not the 90% and 10% maps.

Maybe this belongs in the month of March thread, but GFS went nuts at 12z - doubled qpf for the current event (just catching up to other guidance) but also wiping out Thurs-Fri and crushing us next Monday (and if day 7 wasn't silly enough, another solid event at day 14.) :weenie: 

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58 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I think GYX is in progress of upping the forecast totals, and only the "expected" amount has been revised, not the 90% and 10% maps.

Maybe this belongs in the month of March thread, but GFS went nuts at 12z - doubled qpf for the current event (just catching up to other guidance) but also wiping out Thurs-Fri and crushing us next Monday (and if day 7 wasn't silly enough, another solid event at day 14.) :weenie: 

GFS puts a 30 spot on my head by day 8 LOL man if that verified what a fookin month

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

This would have been awesome in Feb, 18z Nam GW...

image.thumb.png.960ecb9f91c58b14f064a35f31314957.png

Yes it would have been. Makes me want to :weep:

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On 3/21/2020 at 9:34 PM, Ginx snewx said:

First call Hunchie Dendrite 4 to 8, Dryslot 7 to 9, Hippy GC warrior, Pete 4 to 6 , Kev 2 to 4, Money Pit  Ray 3 to 6 , Me 1 to 2, Scooter Jerry to Will 1 to 4 Luke 1 to 3, Ct shore SE Mass slushies. 

Pretty good I think

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty good I think

Too late to measure now as it’s compacted pretty good but I bet we got more than 6”.  It ripped hard at the very end last night.  

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15 hours ago, dryslot said:

This would have been awesome in Feb, 18z Nam GW...

image.thumb.png.960ecb9f91c58b14f064a35f31314957.png

So the NAM did the best for the north?  Did any others get the big amounts up to the border, esp in VT?

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1 hour ago, GCWarrior said:

Too late to measure now as it’s compacted pretty good but I bet we got more than 6”.  It ripped hard at the very end last night.  

Yeah, everyone around you was 7 - 8" 

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Odd behavior with this thing..  

We snowed moderately and steady later yesterday afternoon and early evening to almost 4" ..then, flipped to sleet and cold rain as the temperature was falling to 32.5. The mat-downing was underway by 7 .. 7:30 pm ...Then, the wind picks up with ominous whirs, and everything flashed over to heavy snow that went on to burst for about 1.5 hours worth and another 3"... Then, back over to cold rain and sleet.. Bit of a head scratch because this later flip back was amid the genesis of the CCB featuring on rad and sat, and in theory, the column should have continued to cool. But it seemed to warm during that period of time. Interesting.

Not sure how the event finished, but by 3 am the sky was just black, there was no wind, and glop flopping rained from the trees.  Too bad, too, it stripped the gracing off the trees and that would have been a pretty specter at sun-up but.  

 

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