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Some concerns have come up with regard to vaccine effectiveness on the mutations.  Unfortunately, there isn't enough evidence to support either outcome.  

 

Initially it was said that the European strain was more contagious but not more deadly, now we are hearing that may not be the case.  Again, not enough evidence to support either as it is hard to know how long this has persisted.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/uk-variant-covid-mortality/2021/01/22/86023180-5cd6-11eb-a849-6f9423a75ffd_story.html

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Been trying to stay out of this discussion as I'm biased.  I've been dealing with this virus, it's repercussions or whatever for 8 months.  It's real for me.  I lost one of my best friends last spring to it, lost my stepfather after a 5 week battle last week to it.  I can't go more than 2 or 3 weeks without something being wrong and trust me, I'm no whiner.  It's been 15 years since I even had the flu.  You're not making a statement by not wearing a mask other than you're a selfish POS.  Seriously, I'm sick of the excuses.  Is it so much to ask if you go into a store to simply lift a bandana over your face at the very least?  Those that refuse are as guilty as drunk drivers as far as I'm concerned.

Some may get this, some won't.  Those that do are already masking up, those that don't get this WEAR A FREAKIN MASK!!

 

 

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14 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Been trying to stay out of this discussion as I'm biased.  I've been dealing with this virus, it's repercussions or whatever for 8 months.  It's real for me.  I lost one of my best friends last spring to it, lost my stepfather after a 5 week battle last week to it.  I can't go more than 2 or 3 weeks without something being wrong and trust me, I'm no whiner.  It's been 15 years since I even had the flu.  You're not making a statement by not wearing a mask other than you're a selfish POS.  Seriously, I'm sick of the excuses.  Is it so much to ask if you go into a store to simply lift a bandana over your face at the very least?  Those that refuse are as guilty as drunk drivers as far as I'm concerned.

Some may get this, some won't.  Those that do are already masking up, those that don't get this WEAR A FREAKIN MASK!!

 

Couldn't agree more.  I am sorry to hear that you are dealing with this.  If you don't mind talking about it, what has been going on with the residuals you are feeling?  Understand if you don't want to talk about it - I think the psychological effect of we'll all be dealing with more so long term.

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Continuing to get good nationwide drops in cases, positivity and hospitalizations. Hospital numbers are -20% off peak now. Deaths should follow after about another week. the numbers are just so high it is going to take time to get it down. Assuming a slighter better CFR as we vaccinate more LTC residents I think that number will be down  to ~2200-2300/day in mid. Feb based on current case numbers.

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6 hours ago, dan11295 said:

Continuing to get good nationwide drops in cases, positivity and hospitalizations. Hospital numbers are -20% off peak now. Deaths should follow after about another week. the numbers are just so high it is going to take time to get it down. Assuming a slighter better CFR as we vaccinate more LTC residents I think that number will be down  to ~2200-2300/day in mid. Feb based on current case numbers.

Vaccines are already having a big impact 

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6 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We are seeing amazing drops in hospitalizations. Down to 110k. Again very good news

Basically every state is seeing steady drops here as of late last week. Should see significant downturn in deaths within 2 weeks. At this point the only thing IMHO that prevents case numbers from dropping to very low levels by April-May is rapid growth of variant with ability to significantly bypass current immunity/vaccine. This doesn't seem to be an issue with the "UK" one at least. Just saw a Report the Moderna vaccine is effective against the SA variant as well. The main danger with these variants is case number falls could be delayed if people let up on protective measures (masks/large gathering reduction) too quickly before significant immunizations occur due to higher transmission rates. Important to keep watching virus evolution. 

Right now I am optimistic about a somewhat normal summer, probably minus very large (100+) indoor social gatherings or packed theatres/concert halls.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

As a first responder, I got my first Moderna shot today. I'm very happy.

I know someone who is 20 and was able to get the vaccine.  A healthy college student, not an essential worker or anything.  I would hope that kind of thing is not happening too often.

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I know someone who is 20 and was able to get the vaccine.  A healthy college student, not an essential worker or anything.  I would hope that kind of thing is not happening too often.

I know here that here at least, they schedule people in the high-risk classes based on the time frame that the site is open.  However, the vials usually contain a little more than the number of doses that is supposed to be in them.  By combining residual vaccine, they can squeeze out several more doses.  So rather than waste it, they grab anyone they can to come in at the end of the day to get vaccinated. In our case, they have complied a list of city, county, school employees, and other "essential" residents to call when they determine how many doses they are going to have left at the end of the day.

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Was given guidance from work that once cases are below 500 a day or you are vaccinated we are to return back to the office.

 

It appears the quality of work lately has been garbage, and at least at the corporate level, work from home is starting to be a mess. We’ve fired 3 people in our division and an entire team of 4 in Canada was terminated. It’s became evident some people are not pulling close to 40, or struggling to do any projects. Has anyone else ran into these issues with their company for the WFH folks?

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11 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

:thumbsup:If we keep at this rate hospitalizations will be under a hundred thousand by the beginning of next week 

This number should keep dropping with continuing trends. 

You have to remember that 7 states now have >10% of their population tested positive (ND/SD >12%). Real number of infections is generally estimated to be 4-5x the confirmed numbers, That would result in 40-60% of the population actually exposed in those states. Between that, vaccinations and the parts of the population willing/able to be very careful not to expose themselves, the virus starts to run out of people to infect. 

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The South Africa variant has been detected in South Carolina.  If it's in 1 state, there's a good chance it's in other states as well.  The question is what the numbers are with these variants.

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The South Africa variant has been detected in South Carolina.  If it's in 1 state, there's a good chance it's in other states as well.  The question is what the numbers are with these variants.

These variants are serious potential wildcards that could set us back.

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

These variants are serious potential wildcards that could set us back.

Current vaccines seem to work well enough against the UK and South Africa ones at least, although some slight drop in efficiency against the South Africa one has been reported. We simply don't have enough good data about the Brazil one yet.

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Israel a cautionary tale for how fast we can get back to "normal" in the US?

World’s Most Vaccinated Nation Struggles With Virus Variants

(Bloomberg) -- With more than 30% of its population vaccinated, Israel leads the fight against Covid-19. Yet the emergence of more infectious variants is overwhelming its hospitals, showing the long road ahead for the rest of the world.

After inoculating 82% of Israelis aged 60 and more, going into a nearly month-long lockdown and shutting down the national airport this week, Israel is indicating the end of the tunnel may be further away. That dents hopes for a rapid vaccine-driven global recovery after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge at Davos to make Israel a test case for how quickly Covid shots can help reopen economies.

“We see a wave of infection that refuses to decline, apparently because of the mutation,” Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said at a press conference on Thursday.

As the European Union fights to get adequate supplies of vaccines and the U.S. pushes to get more shots into arms, the Israeli situation is evidence of the difficulty of fighting a virus whose ability to quickly mutate keeps it a step ahead of efforts to contain it.

People who have gone through the vaccination cycle made up 2% or less of those hospitalized, said Head of Public Health Sharon Alroy-Preis, adding that “they were definitely more protected.” Still, not enough people have completed the inoculation cycle to draw conclusions about the efficacy of the vaccine, Ran Balicer, head of the Covid-19 National Experts Team, said on Ynet television.

The so-called British variant, 50% more infectious and possibly more virulent than the original virus, is to blame for the inability so far of the vaccination campaign and the lockdown to curb the spread, Israeli health ministry officials said.

Although the vaccine is believed to work against the British variant, the mutation’s more contagious nature means higher infections and hence more hospitalizations. The health ministry’s main goal now is to bring down the numbers of the seriously ill who are overwhelming hospital wards and exhausting medical teams.

The rate of infections in Israel has declined to just over 9% from 10.2% earlier this month, and people seriously or critically ill has stabilized at about 1,100. But the number of patients on respirators has hit a record, Corona Commissioner Nachman Ash has said. More than 4,600 people in Israel have died from the virus, and more than 7,600 people are being diagnosed with it daily.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/worlds-most-vaccinated-nation-struggles-with-virus-variants/ar-BB1dcbHR

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IHME update has about 595k deaths by May 1.  

They added a new scenario, if you will, to their model, called "rapid variant spread."  That scenario causes a bit of an increase in deaths to 620k by May 1.

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8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Hospitalizations down to 101k. Good news but its a race against these new variants 

One thing that may work in our favor is that we have already had so much spread in America that it could provide added protection 

 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Israel a cautionary tale for how fast we can get back to "normal" in the US?

World’s Most Vaccinated Nation Struggles With Virus Variants

(Bloomberg) -- With more than 30% of its population vaccinated, Israel leads the fight against Covid-19. Yet the emergence of more infectious variants is overwhelming its hospitals, showing the long road ahead for the rest of the world.

After inoculating 82% of Israelis aged 60 and more, going into a nearly month-long lockdown and shutting down the national airport this week, Israel is indicating the end of the tunnel may be further away. That dents hopes for a rapid vaccine-driven global recovery after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge at Davos to make Israel a test case for how quickly Covid shots can help reopen economies.

“We see a wave of infection that refuses to decline, apparently because of the mutation,” Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said at a press conference on Thursday.

As the European Union fights to get adequate supplies of vaccines and the U.S. pushes to get more shots into arms, the Israeli situation is evidence of the difficulty of fighting a virus whose ability to quickly mutate keeps it a step ahead of efforts to contain it.

People who have gone through the vaccination cycle made up 2% or less of those hospitalized, said Head of Public Health Sharon Alroy-Preis, adding that “they were definitely more protected.” Still, not enough people have completed the inoculation cycle to draw conclusions about the efficacy of the vaccine, Ran Balicer, head of the Covid-19 National Experts Team, said on Ynet television.

The so-called British variant, 50% more infectious and possibly more virulent than the original virus, is to blame for the inability so far of the vaccination campaign and the lockdown to curb the spread, Israeli health ministry officials said.

Although the vaccine is believed to work against the British variant, the mutation’s more contagious nature means higher infections and hence more hospitalizations. The health ministry’s main goal now is to bring down the numbers of the seriously ill who are overwhelming hospital wards and exhausting medical teams.

The rate of infections in Israel has declined to just over 9% from 10.2% earlier this month, and people seriously or critically ill has stabilized at about 1,100. But the number of patients on respirators has hit a record, Corona Commissioner Nachman Ash has said. More than 4,600 people in Israel have died from the virus, and more than 7,600 people are being diagnosed with it daily.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/worlds-most-vaccinated-nation-struggles-with-virus-variants/ar-BB1dcbHR

 

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1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

One thing that may work in our favor is that we have already had so much spread in America that it could provide added protection 

 

 

This is interesting to consider.  Say somebody got sick months ago.  If they come in contact with the South Africa variant for example, how likely would they be to develop infection?  Not really looking for an answer, just wondering out loud.

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45 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is interesting to consider.  Say somebody got sick months ago.  If they come in contact with the South Africa variant for example, how likely would they be to develop infection?  Not really looking for an answer, just wondering out loud.

I would  think the body would be better prepared but I could be wrong 

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I’m on day 4 of symptoms. My wife and son have it. My parents have it. Thanks to some a$$hole friend who showed up to visit them who had been exposed and still thought it was a good idea. 

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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This is interesting to consider.  Say somebody got sick months ago.  If they come in contact with the South Africa variant for example, how likely would they be to develop infection?  Not really looking for an answer, just wondering out loud.

This article is fantastic

https://www.today.com/health/how-many-strains-covid-19-exist-covid-19-variant-guide-t207173

Early lab research on Pfizer's vaccine indicates that it only slightly loses effectiveness against the South African variant, and previous research from the company on the U.K. variant found that antibodies in vaccine recipients' blood successfully fought off the virus in lab dishes.

Moderna said earlier this week that a lab study showed "no significant impact on neutralizing titers," which correlate to protection provided by a vaccination, against the U.K. strain. The study did find "a six-fold reduction in neutralizing titers" against the South African variant, but the company said the reduced titer levels are still expected to be protective.

Plummer said her Cedars-Sinai team does not anticipate CAL.20C will evade the vaccines, but they're actively investigating to be sure. She also believes most other strains and mutations will respond to the existing vaccines.

"It will become very difficult for SARS-CoV-2 at the rate that it's mutating to evade the vaccine," she said, adding that mRNA vaccines were chosen to fight this pandemic because they're "designed to overcome" mutations. Asked why Moderna and Pfizer would need to develop boosters if this is the case, Plummer said the scientific justification would be "an abundance of precaution."

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