snowcaine

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About snowcaine

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    CYYZ
  • Location:
    Toronto, ON

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  1. Jealous, I got ~5" for that storm I recall being surprised at how well YYZ did!
  2. It's funny you say that. I counted this morning out of curiosity and I have had only 6 events above 6" in the last six years, and only one was above 8" (which was the 13" storm in Jan 2019) Averaging 1 event over 6" per season is kind of depressing when you think about it
  3. It's hard to believe given I have yet to have an event drop more than 5" this season! Lots of little events
  4. One of those situations where it could be 0 to 9 inches anywhere along a 60 mile distance. My forecast would probably be 3" for Toronto, but 0" is entirely possible, as is 7"
  5. I usually find that an average between Kuchera and 10:1 works out best. Unless it's lake effect or slop, then Kuchera all the way. 7" seems like a good bet to me at this stage.
  6. This is Canada's new obsession: stop the variants!
  7. I would think 30 cm is more likely on ground by Friday, especially factoring in sublimation and compaction between events. 60 cm would be heavenly but I would be surprised. My guess is 20 cm of snow from today's event, 10 cm on Friday. Maybe I'm pessimistic, but we've been screwed by overblown Kuchera rates before (even if we're in prime dendrite growth zone thermally, seen far too many rod events when I was hoping for dendrites). And the Thursday night system looks like a classic coastal capture - we'll see how far west the snow shield penetrates, but again wouldn't be surprised to see less-than-ideal snow ratios, especially with such dry air on the doorstep to eat away at that moisture.
  8. Yeah we can't catch a break, but there's at least a chance of something good hitting this week. We've had what, two snowfalls over 10" in the last 5 years?
  9. 3.5" here in Toronto overnight. A bit less than I had hoped but I'll take it especially for Christmas! Merry Christmas everyone
  10. It's funny you mention model quality lately. I've found the GFS to be abysmal too. Oddly enough, the Canadian has been my go-to the last month. 2013-14 was the last winter that I found the Canadian to do really well, so I wonder if they've made changes to the model recently.
  11. The Buffalo NWS office has said that they like the Canadian model suite best for lake effect snow guidance in general
  12. We're testing about 4x as much, I am sure actual caseload was much higher in the spring than numbers suggested. Also, outbreaks in hospitals and care homes burned through our weaker/most vulnerable population early. Kind of like how dry, dying branches are the first to burn in a forest fire, resulting in a forest being less vulnerable/susceptible to future fires (or in this case, virus waves). It's unlikely virus potency is any worse or less than before, especially given that coronaviruses in general are fairly stable (in that they typically don't mutate to become any more or less severe over time).
  13. They did drop the ball. They didn't act sooner. We shall see how this post holds up over time. Be part of the solution, not the problem.
  14. Well you can go outside your home for a walk or something. I'd say that's a low risk activity as long as you're respecting physical distance from others.
  15. Sustained at YYZ may seem low but gusts met criteria. Additionally, YTZ was 30-40 G 50-60 most of the event. Just need sustained or gusts over 40 Jan 2019 beats Feb 2013 for me because it happened during the day. Amounts were similar. But definitely the Dec 2013 ice storms wins this competition, with July 2013 floods a close second. 2013 was a busy year for Toronto.