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C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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From Mt Holly AFD. Rinse and repeat...

By the start of next week synoptic pattern shifts to what has largely been the default pattern this winter... a western Atlantic ridge with upstream troughing over the Central US. This will result in a storm track north and west of the area which will favor warmer temperatures and primarily rain events. At this time details are a bit lacking, but a system does look to track over the Great Lakes Monday PM into Tuesday with a secondary system possibly on its heels on Wednesday. Temperatures will only be a couple degrees above normal Monday but should increase into the low to mid 60s by Wednesday as SW flow increases in association with the aforementioned storm systems.

Eventually this wretched pattern will mercifully end, and we will get into the usual warm/humid doldrums for the balance of Spring, before we finally transition to Hot and humid with little rain for the long, long, looooong Summer ahead. Don't y'all just love it here?

 

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24 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Funny crowd...We should start a contest on when we will get the first 90 degree day,

We will see a few days well into the 70s in March. Can bank on that. Would not be at all surprised to see 80+.

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5 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I'd be pretty shocked if our  area doesn't see anymore snow this season so ...to answer your question...yes I do expect it to snow :D . If it doesn't it would be historic up  here for such a long stretch without an inch ( Since Jan 8th) . Jan 19th was a 1/4" then ice storm . We moved up to CC in 88' . It would be a first to my knowledge. Actually going the month of February alone snowless here  i believe would be historic . The good thing is it will snow again . If not this season...then next . My weather tracking never stops so I'll keep on rolling rain/snow/ hail or whatever . 

A March  1958 , 1942, 1993, or 1962 redux is preferred however :weenie:

Was I-795 finished when you moved up Carroll County way?

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59 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Was I-795 finished when you moved up Carroll County way?

 

43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yes . I believe so

I-795 was opened in 1986 I believe. The same tear the Owings Mills mall opened.

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4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

before we finally transition to Hot and humid with little rain for the long, long, looooong Summer ahead

The Atlantic is going to boil this summer. As will your grass , but maybe the extreme heat will kill your moles.

Might be an early and a extended beach season this year . The robust Western Atlantic ridge may be so large at times to deflect storms into the Gulf but we are to a degree due for a East Coast threat that effects a large portion of the coastline, such as a Donna track. And yes, it will be a long summer but you never know, the consensus early on is for heat but why not think chaos and maybe a cooler summer is in the cards.  Hard to go against extreme heat coming out of this winter but you never know.            

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

0Z EPS continues to say our snow chances are nil. 

Euro was a horrendous run  with the whole country getting way above normal by hour 240.

It's  over 

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35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro was a horrendous run  with the whole country getting way above normal by hour 240.

It's  over 

Best news in the LR all winter. It's time to put a fork in this turd and move on. Hopefully some warm weather will slow these viruses. 

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

^ 3 of those hits are from the day 7/8 system so not uber LR but still low chance .

Days 7-14 appear to our limited window.  WB 6Z GEFS mean selected periods.

7A87CFCD-7AA9-4B6B-A9D4-B352FAF19605.png

92BA9E36-DA6B-4464-8FE9-DA255DF2C0DC.png

CD18CC31-7B75-4226-9D86-A6F1862016F7.png

E791DD20-730E-4CD1-99CD-363719E3FB9F.png

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Yes 3 of the 21 06 UT GEFS members give the DC area winter storm warning conditions just one week from today! None of the other members give us any snow during that time frame.  Go big or go home. 

 

Correction: one additional member gives us a trace next Thursday

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Hopefully this background state changes as the year progresses.  Even HM commented the last time in regards to the HL and the NAM this winter was way back  in the Pinatubo era.  

https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs113-97/

 

Deep Westerlies,  as Simon states,  and your Westerly dominant AAM regime mentioned by Matt are keys . Put that on your checklist next December.   

No changes expected here for at least a month or longer, I might speculate months.  

 

Image

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

lets do this. just replace that 999 low with a 1045 high and we goo

gfs_T850_us_27.png

 

 

WOW,  in the intermountain west the temps  have  plummeted to -100.

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