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2020 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

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Just now, Stebo said:

Airport measured 5.19" including 2.85" in one hour and 1.41" in another hour

KPIA 151954Z 06008KT 3/4SM R04/2200V5500FT +TSRA BR FEW007 BKN021 OVC027 21/19 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS SLP125 P0141 T02110194

KPIA 152254Z 35006KT 3/4SM R04/2800VP6000FT +RA BR SCT002 OVC015 23/21 A2981 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE22 SLP092 P0285 T02280211

KPIA 152354Z 07006KT 10SM OVC004 23/21 A2982 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E AND SE RAE40 CIG 003V007 SLP094 P0016 60515 T02280211 10239 20211 55024

 

7.2 inches in my dads gauge on the far NE side of Pekin

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Just now, janetjanet998 said:

7.2 inches in my dads gauge on the far NE side of Pekin

Wow

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looks like this is the 2nd wettest calendar day is Peoria

5.19

5.52 May 18, 1927

 

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/IL/Peoria/extreme-annual-peoria-precipitation.php

 

also

 

800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       E PEORIA                40.74N 89.61W   
07/15/2020  M8.00 INCH       PEORIA             IL   PUBLIC            
  
            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA  

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Big differences between the HRRR and the 3kmNAM with the HRRR keeping both tonight's and tomorrow nights MCS much further north.  The HRW suite seems to favor the further south propagation as well

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i find the 3km believable, it also really allows dps to pool in the area Saturday along the remnant boundary with widespread upper 70s

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Tornado warning west of Kokomo IN.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
215 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

INC015-023-157-211845-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200721T1845Z/
Carroll IN-Tippecanoe IN-Clinton IN-
215 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL...EAST CENTRAL TIPPECANOE AND NORTHWESTERN
CLINTON COUNTIES...

At 215 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Lafayette, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Mulberry around 220 PM EDT.
  Rossville around 230 PM EDT.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 166 and 172.

 

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1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

Possible svr storm watch coming for St. Louis and central IL area per SPC meso discussion.

Surprised they didn’t pull the trigger on that watch. Severe storms haven’t been hard to come by 

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Tornado warning just south of Springfield IL.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
403 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Sangamon County in central Illinois...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 403 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Auburn, or near Virden, moving east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Divernon around 410 PM CDT.
  Springfield and Pawnee around 415 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Glenarm, Thayer and Lowder.

This includes Interstate 55 between mile markers 77 and 90.

 

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New tornado warning east of the other one.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
418 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Christian County in central Illinois...
  Southeastern Sangamon County in central Illinois...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 418 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing both
  tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage were located over
  White Oak, or 12 miles east of Virden, moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* These dangerous storms will be near...
  Kincaid, Edinburg, Bulpitt and Jeisyville around 430 PM CDT.
  Taylorville around 435 PM CDT.
  Stonington around 445 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Sangchris Lake State Park, Sicily, Willeys, Roby, Sharpsburg, Berry,
Owaneco, Tovey, Taylorville Airport and Glenarm.

This includes Interstate 55 between mile markers 84 and 89.

 

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55 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Tornado warning just south of Springfield IL.

 

Actually produced per SPC reports. I was telling a coworker funnel cloud at min. on this scan. 

Screenshot_20200721-160755_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.a9d5b07ae7bf4fc7b727d1fdc241b88c.jpg

 

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Just had some heavy rain where I was, driving home was interesting at times. A lot of water on roadways, mad it through the viaduct though, was only about 1 1/2 feet deep.

 

Wish I was home enjoying rather than driving through it though.

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Confirmed tornado over Eau Claire WI.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
843 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

WIC017-035-220200-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-200722T0200Z/
Chippewa WI-Eau Claire WI-
843 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND NORTHWESTERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES...

At 843 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Eau Claire,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Lake Wissota around 850 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Bateman, Eau Claire Airport and Seymour.

 

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Some fair low level lapse rates but poor mid level rates and little shear means we will only see some isolated pop up svr later this Sunday evening in the WI/IL area.   SPC indicating a watch will not be necessary.  Heavy rain seems to be the main threat.

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Severe Weather Statement

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
529 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

OHC113-135-012145-
/O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200801T2145Z/
Preble OH-Montgomery OH-
529 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL PREBLE AND WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

At 528 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near West Alexandria, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
New Lebanon and Pyrmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3969 8450 3971 8454 3983 8447 3972 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 230DEG 18KT 3972 8446

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

Campbell

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MCS generation parameters are pretty good tomorrow. 5000 CAPE gradient along a warm front oriented favorably towards NW-SE shear vectors, probably 30-35kts of EBWD and a relatively decent LLJ, at least for this time of year and during the day. CAMs disagree wildly on what exactly transpires, but might get a decent storm around here at least.

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Looks like some potential coming up.

One caveat for Friday has to do with Laura.  If it misbehaves in terms of speed/location, then perhaps some clouds could become a factor in part of the risk area or maybe even throw off the frontal timing a bit.  As of now, it looks like should be enough separation to not really affect the severe threat.

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LOT afternoon thoughts

 

As the aforementioned upper-level speed max peels northeastward and
the associated low-level jet wanes, convective activity Friday
morning should taper leaving behind the outflow-reinforced
stationary front somewhere across northern or perhaps even central
Illinois. Friday afternoon, a secondary speed max will zip in
from the west possibly kicking off renewed thunderstorm
development along the front. The forecast environmental parameter
space continues to look supportive of severe weather with MLCAPE
> 2000 J/kg south of the front, mid- level lapse rates of ~7 K/km,
and effective bulk shear values increasing to 35-40 kt. And,
depending on the orientation of the outflow-enhanced stationary
front, an east/southeasterly storm motion and low-level shear
vectors with at least a modest perpendicular component to the
boundary may encourage transient semi-discrete supercell
structures with associated threats for all severe hazards.
However, the devil is in the detail (all of which we don`t
necessarily have right now), and subtle changes in storm
morphology Friday morning as well as any impact of the remnants of
Hurricane Laura to our south will influence convective chances
Friday afternoon and evening. All in all, Friday continues to be
the day to watch for severe weather.
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Looks like storms are already firing up in West Central MI and over Lake Michigan.

Definitely something to watch for the afternoon hours.

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