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Hoosier

2020 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

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Some models do Saturday further west, and some more also have a setup on Monday. Saturday may end up capped due to the lack of a well developed wave. Monday might not exist at all, though the 00z Euro and 12z GFS do each have setups on Monday, even though they are vastly different.

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

@hlcater, where and when are those forecast soundings valid for? Off what model?

Most models look like that sunday in Iowa. Huge deal if they somehow end up uncapped, but with a reservoir of 14c 700s to the west AND westerly 700mb flow, that's probably not happening. 

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Some models either do initiate or become extremely close to initiating a storm in this environment. E IA/N IL. I still don’t like EML strength(14c 700s) and subsidence in IA. But far E IA and IL might have a chance....

 

image.thumb.png.b6177ddcb2016498ecb2d3a6216094fb.png


 

 

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Lacking the visible inversion there and 0 on the SBCINH. SRH and lapse rates look good, perhaps the best I've seen in this region this whole lousy year. Low level winds look weak and veered, but the winds veer further and increase nicely in the 850-700mb layer.

What is the significance of the temperature and dewpoint coming together (100% RH) just below 850mb?

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20 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Lacking the visible inversion there and 0 on the SBCINH. SRH and lapse rates look good, perhaps the best I've seen in this region this whole lousy year. Low level winds look weak and veered, but the winds veer further and increase nicely in the 850-700mb layer.

What is the significance of the temperature and dewpoint coming together (100% RH) just below 850mb?

The T/Td intersection below the EML is cloud cover, and one of the reasons why I’m not at all confident in initiation. That and the stout EML above it are extremely problematic. Regarding the hodograph, veered flow probably isn’t an issue here as the flow aloft is NWly and the resulting hodograph is quite tasty imo. I don’t have many concerns about the parameter space not being able to support a severe/tornado threat. For me, it’s more of what is the chance we get a robust updraft?

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33 minutes ago, hlcater said:

The T/Td intersection below the EML is cloud cover, and one of the reasons why I’m not at all confident in initiation. That and the stout EML above it are extremely problematic. Regarding the hodograph, veered flow probably isn’t an issue here as the flow aloft is NWly and the resulting hodograph is quite tasty imo. I don’t have many concerns about the parameter space not being able to support a severe/tornado threat. For me, it’s more of what is the chance we get a robust updraft?

Well, you were the guy who scored Kalona (ONLY storm that day that sustained long enough to do that) and Iowa is notorious for stupid things like that. Probably not worth the drive for me from Madison, though with work at 3AM Monday.

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Tomorrow looks like a classic day in which morning activity does not clear soon enough and lingers a bit too long, which will hinder cold frontal activity for later in the day.

Looks like a marginal risk kind of day.


.

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Not dismissing the negative factors tomorrow, but whatever does develop should carry some severe threat well into the evening.  Here is a forecast sounding around Chicago at 3z Mon.  Impressive look in the low levels for a damaging wind threat at least.

278234914_2020090512_NAM_039_41.86-87.67_severe_ml.thumb.png.09d65fac0c6d28f52342962f81c215f1.png

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15z RAP clears it out pretty quickly tomorrow and has temps rebounding into the upper 80s as far northeast as Chicago.  Probably not the most likely scenario.

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I think we will recover with sunshine already being reported in WI and ne IA, great mid level lapse rates and high helicity coming in from the nw, increasing dew points and temps and enough time between now and this evening for insolation to work.   Things might just be rocking this evening in the Chicago metro area, WI, and northern IL.

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Not super pumped with those 700mb temps but definitely worth keeping an eye on things locally this afternoon/evening.
What are the 700mb temps/where are they forecast to be/where do we need them?

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4 minutes ago, kevlon62 said:

What are the 700mb temps/where are they forecast to be/where do we need them?

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15.4 degrees C at Omaha according to SPC and that will be advecting into the risk area on southwesterly winds at that layer. It represents a quite strong cap which is why @hlcater is not enthusiastic about this setup.

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15.4 degrees C at Omaha according to SPC and that will be advecting into the risk area on southwesterly winds at that layer. It represents a quite strong cap which is why [mention=14460]hlcater[/mention] is not enthusiastic about this setup.
Got it. Thanks for breaking that down.

Trying not to be facetious but feels like aside from their wording on today being conditional, SPC has been a bit bullish on the D1 outlook. Given the progged cap - are we talking holiday weekend b-team at the desk or we still got a legit Slight Risk/5% Tor evening in play?

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Pretty confident in some degree of redevelopment... question is when/where/to what extent.  One of those setups where a couple hour difference either way could have an impact on the severity of the outcome.  Personally I'd lean toward a more subdued result, because I'm just not confident in an extremely rapid northeastward recovery throughout the slight risk area.  Will have to keep a close watch on that though, because the potential is there to recover quickly, especially with south/west extent.

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26 minutes ago, kevlon62 said:

Got it. Thanks for breaking that down.

Trying not to be facetious but feels like aside from their wording on today being conditional, SPC has been a bit bullish on the D1 outlook. Given the progged cap - are we talking holiday weekend b-team at the desk or we still got a legit Slight Risk/5% Tor evening in play?

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Hard to say. On a synoptic level, this is a pretty decent setup at least for southern WI. The big question mark though is whether that cap can be broken, especially before dark. Almost has the feel of many a springtime Plains setup in that regard. The annoying thing is, in most springtime setups in this area the problem is not enough cap to prevent early/messy initiation.

Edit: 16Z HRRR says no joy except some mess across western lower Michigan. Local soundings are solidly capped.

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Definitely will see a nice recovery later today, but as many have mentioned the cap remains the biggest issue.  A lot of the guidance is popping off convection by early eve, so I'm leaning towards there being at least scattered activity like Hoosier mentioned.  The substantial plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is very nice to see.

nfngfn.jpg

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