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Hoosier

2020 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

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Our usual thread for small/non thread worthy severe and also for longer range severe discussion. 

Nothing imminent but there are some signs in the long range that the large scale pattern may become more favorable toward mid March.  Could end up not leading to anything but remember I am the guy who started the winter thread a couple weeks before the halloween storm.  :scooter:

In the meantime, since nothing is going on, feel free to post thoughts on the upcoming season or talk about past events, etc.

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Guess the outbreak

 

post-14-0-96709600-1332910134.png.a9f99a3950edcacd01f9acaf203b565a.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time's up.

March 28, 1920.  That means it will be 100 years.  The numbers on the map represent order of occurrence.

This is like a toned down version of the April 1965 outbreak.  Geographic area affected is remarkably similar.  7 of these tornadoes in IL/IN/MI/OH were rated F4.

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pretty impressive to see tornadoes right up against Lake Michigan that early in the season.

 

Definitely have positive feelings about this severe season.  the jet has been ripping along so far and if continues into spring that will help promote increased shear and less meridional flow which will lead to more turning with height.  Have seen 1990 thrown around as an analog and seeing some similarities in the March pattern(1990 also feature a double spike of extremely high AO values in February).   Have also seen 1991, 2007 and a few other years thrown around that would portend average to above average tornado risk this spring.  

 

Personally I'll be out chasing the last 10 days of may so hoping for an active stretch then.

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There have been at least 19 EF-2 tornadoes to date in 2020 according to Ian Livingston of the U.S. Tornadoes Site.  His Capital Weather Gang will be making their spring prediction by the end of this month.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Guess the outbreak

 

post-14-0-96709600-1332910134.png.a9f99a3950edcacd01f9acaf203b565a.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time's up.

March 28, 1920.  That means it will be 100 years.  The numbers on the map represent order of occurrence.

This is like a toned down version of the April 1965 outbreak.  Geographic area affected is remarkably similar.  7 of these tornadoes in IL/IN/MI/OH were rated F4.

YOU DIDNT GIVE ME ENOUGH TIME!!!! Plus I did know this one. Back when Michigan got tornadoes.

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After the big tornado outbreak here in Dayton, last Memorial Day,  I'm coming here to hopefully jinx the severe weather projections for this area.

Sorry guys.  We don't need any more severe weather around here for awhile.  How 'bout 6 inches of snow or somethin' :-)

 

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Tornado watch issued this Monday evening March 2 for the Evansville/Paducah area on sw to Harrison Arkansas. Primary concern is large hail with good lapse rates but a tornado or two also possible

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  
  CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
  NORTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
  
* UNTIL 630 PM CST.  
  
* AT 552 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BROOKPORT, OR  
  NEAR PADUCAH, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...AT 5:50 PM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY DIME   
           TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN   
           MCCRACKEN COUNTY, KY.   
  
  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE   
           TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  PADUCAH, METROPOLIS, BROOKPORT, SMITHLAND AND HAMLETSBURG.   
  

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MOC203-030030-  
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200303T0030Z/  
SHANNON MO-  
611 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020  
  
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST  
FOR NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY...  
  
AT 610 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF  
EMINENCE, OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF VAN BUREN, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL   
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND   
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY.  

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First tornado warning of this episode.  Usual procedure forward is to post only radar confirmed or spotter indicated tornadoes.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
614 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...  
  SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...  
  NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 700 PM CST.  
      
* AT 614 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER ELLSINORE, OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VAN BUREN,  
  MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  ELLSINORE AROUND 620 PM CST.  
  BRUSH ARBOR AROUND 640 PM CST.  
  WILLIAMSVILLE AROUND 700 PM CST.

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.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE AND NORTHWESTERN BUTLER  
COUNTIES...  
      
AT 624 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED OVER ELLSINORE, OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF PIEDMONT, MOVING  
EAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. A POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS REPORTED   
         AT HIGHWAY 21 SOUTH AND HIGHWAY 60 AT 620 PM.  
  

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
711 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020  
  
MOC223-030145-  
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200303T0145Z/  
WAYNE MO-  
711 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR WAYNE  
COUNTY...  
      
AT 708 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED NEAR PIEDMONT, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. THE PUBLIC REPORTED A POSSIBLE   
         TORNADO BETWEEN PIEDMONT AND MILL SPRING AT 705 PM. ANOTHER   
         STRONG CIRCULATION WAS 9 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE. THIS   
         STORM WAS ALSO PRODUCING PING PONG SIZE HAIL.   
  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
822 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
  NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
  NORTHEASTERN TODD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
  
* UNTIL 900 PM CST.  
      
* AT 820 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEIR, OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF  
  HOPKINSVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THIS STORM ALSO HAS A HISTORY OF   
           PRODUCING DAMAGE IN THE CROFTON AREA.   
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  WEIR AROUND 825 PM CST.  
  DUNMOR AROUND 845 PM CST.  

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This was the radar from the reported tornado at Crofton KY earlier (8:00PM CST/ 9:00PM EST). At the current time, some tornado warnings are ongoing around Waverly, Tennessee/ Tennessee City

epXkDwP.jpg

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Not in our subforum, but the tornado death toll is up to 22 in Tennessee. I love being a weather hobbyist, spotter, and chaser, but in my profession, that's my worst nightmare.

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24 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Not in our subforum, but the tornado death toll is up to 22 in Tennessee. I love being a weather hobbyist, spotter, and chaser, but in my profession, that's my worst nightmare.

Late night, strong tornado, and a populated area is a recipe for maximized casualties. Especially as a storm of that severity was not expected that far east. 

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2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Late night, strong tornado, and a populated area is a recipe for maximized casualties. Especially as a storm of that severity was not expected that far east. 

Just like Dayton on Memorial day but we obviously were much luckier on the death total.

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Late night, strong tornado, and a populated area is a recipe for maximized casualties. Especially as a storm of that severity was not expected that far east. 

My friend woke up and ran to the bathroom. He’s okay

c53c531ebdbafb1eb185d9a2c245e1d4.jpg69b54d48ac9e4c9e24a0047624731aad.jpg
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The Nashville tornado reminded me that you can have destructive tornadoes with temps in the low 60's and dews in the upper 50's.  You don't always need dews approaching 70.  This event did have very strong lapse rates, however.

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On 2/24/2020 at 10:48 PM, Hoosier said:

Guess the outbreak

 

post-14-0-96709600-1332910134.png.a9f99a3950edcacd01f9acaf203b565a.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time's up.

March 28, 1920.  That means it will be 100 years.  The numbers on the map represent order of occurrence.

This is like a toned down version of the April 1965 outbreak.  Geographic area affected is remarkably similar.  7 of these tornadoes in IL/IN/MI/OH were rated F4.

I checked ontario records couldn't find anything for this date. Guess it goes like the Palm Sunday 1965 where the tornadoes didnt make it over the border 

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14 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

The Nashville tornado reminded me that you can have destructive tornadoes with temps in the low 60's and dews in the upper 50s

 Its even more important for the public to understand that since the classic idea of tornado weather to many is hot and humid, not the first warm day of spring in the 60s to 70 type weather. 

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On 3/3/2020 at 10:12 PM, outflow said:

 Its even more important for the public to understand that since the classic idea of tornado weather to many is hot and humid, not the first warm day of spring in the 60s to 70 type weather. 

Yea.  Tornado outbreaks in March and April are usually going to coincide with abnormal warmth and humidity for the time of year.  That doesn't mean you need summer-like temperatures though.  Shear is far more important, and low cloud bases / high relative humidity is very beneficial because evaporative cooling from nearby precip won't completely stabilize surface-based storm-inflow. 

I think Dr. Leigh Orf's work provided some pretty strong evidence that violent tornadoes ingest a lot of surface-based parcels that are more stable than average, yet still realize some positive buoyancy once lifted into the middle levels of the storm by the upward vacuum-suction force of the rotating meso.  Hot weather brings you the highest surface based CAPE, but that CAPE can be completely neutralized by just a little bit of precip if the boundary layer is characterized by low relative humidity.  The result is many hot-day summer supercells have elevated inflow, and thus never produce tornadoes.  Early spring supercells are very good at producing tornadoes because they often form in an environment where instability is more than adequate for strong convection despite high boundary layer relative humidity.

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