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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

That doesn't mean anything to me. Neither does ATL getting snow. Who cares? My yard on the other hand... my muddy soggy yard with flower bulbs coming up.... that matters a lot and it sucks

I see your point, but I also found some of those past winters where NYC/NE get hammered - while we always get fringed - actually way more painful than this type of winter.  At least when virtually everyone gets shutout, it doesn't feel that bad.  12/30/00 and 12/26/10 were gut punches that took a while to get over.  

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8 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I see your point, but I also found some of those past winters where NYC/NE get hammered - while we always get fringed - actually way more painful than this type of winter.  At least when virtually everyone gets shutout, it doesn't feel that bad.  12/30/00 and 12/26/10 were gut punches that took a while to get over.  

But the mid Atlantic cashed in on 2/6/10 which was the biggest gut punch to nyc that I could remember! 

I just wonder if the 95 corridor will ever see a repeat of 95-96 where everyone cashes in.

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After a quick glance over the boards I am taking it the day's runs didn't go so well? 
Nooo. Everything and everyone is perfectly fine since December 2nd. We all cashed in on a dumpster fire pattern. Enjoy

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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Quick glance and I see the GEFS has moved to the Euro. Can't picture a winning scenario if the NS can't for the most part bypass the Southwest SW and move eastward reinforcing the suppression. Not giving up at this time (will give it a couple more days) but admittedly it does look rough at this time. 

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11 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Nooo. Everything and everyone is perfectly fine since December 2nd. We all cashed in on a dumpster fire pattern. Enjoy

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

I enjoy life whether it snows or not. Though I would prefer snow to be part of the equation.

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34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Quick glance and I see the GEFS has moved to the Euro. Can't picture a winning scenario if the NS can't for the most part bypass the Southwest SW and move eastward reinforcing the suppression. Not giving up at this time (will give it a couple more days) but admittedly it does look rough at this time. 

You do have quite an eloquent way of saying "the recurring pattern and themes this winter really suck and the late week system look like much of the same shiit"

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21 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

History said if we didn’t see a major flip in the NAM by late January that with the pac pattern this year we were toast. Simply put that pac pattern is stable. It tends to last. It can be offset by favorable blocking but when the AO remains hostile going into February it usually remains so until March if not the whole season.   When we got to the last week of January and no improvement was hinted at I kind of realized we were very very very likely looking at a total dud. 

A fluke can happen. March is the best bet.  But this has had all the tells of a dumpster fire season since late December.

And kudos to you for doing all of the research back in Dec on the pattern that was developing and historically where it would probably head. Your facts were easy to read and comprehend and while many didnt want to hear it you were transparent in suggesting that historically once those Pac looks showed up and lasted a specific amount of time there really was little hope of getting out of it. Well played sir....I thank you for your efforts and research.

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The only consistent feature this winter has been the ++AO/+NAO.  When psu made his dire predictions, there was a monster central PAC ridge.  That ridge actually faded two weeks later and didn't last as long as feared.  We've actually had several different 'patterns' this winter, but none of them were good aside from November...which was too early in the season.

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9 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

The only consistent feature this winter has been the ++AO/+NAO.  When psu made his dire predictions, there was a monster central PAC ridge.  That ridge actually faded two weeks later and didn't last as long as feared.  We've actually had several different 'patterns' this winter, but none of them were good aside from November...which was too early in the season.

We’ve had variations yes. But all have featured 2 constants. +NAM and ridging centered unfavorably in the PAC leading to a -pna. The pac pattern has gone through fluctuations but the mean ridge has continued to be too far west. Furthermore those 2 aren’t totally a bad luck combo. That pac pattern is unfavorable for high latitude disruption. One is feeding into the other.  You aren’t going to get a +5 stdv ridge all the time for months but the pac forcing has plain sucked straight through. 

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I enjoy life whether it snows or not. Though I would prefer snow to be part of the equation.

You're fortunate to have lived long enough to learn that. See this crap ruins my entire day, week, and month.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sounds like you need a chase. 

I wish I could...never chased before, so I'm not sure whether it'll ease my depression over this winter, but...I'd consider giving it a shot if I could!

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’ve had variations yes. But all have featured 2 constants. +NAM and ridging centered unfavorably in the PAC leading to a -pna.

I was under the impression that the late December fail was a different beast: the AK vortex Pac Puke.  AO was actually negative from roughly Dec 15th - 25th or so, but was trumped by the mild Pacific air.

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Well...looks like this thread may become pointless until spring barring a fluke...but yes, yes I know...LR is still LR--even if it turns into multiple cutters, lol
I'd suggest taking a break from this board and posting.

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:
14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
Well...looks like this thread may become pointless until spring barring a fluke...but yes, yes I know...LR is still LR--even if it turns into multiple cutters, lol

I'd suggest taking a break from this board and posting.

I probably should....although I ain't got nowhere else to put this but in the panic room or something (leave me alone, reap). Beyond frustrated and depressed...But enough. Won't clog up this thread, anymore (not like there's anything going on atm, but I'll respect the rules)

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

I was under the impression that the late December fail was a different beast: the AK vortex Pac Puke.  AO was actually negative from roughly Dec 15th - 25th or so, but was trumped by the mild Pacific air.

Dec was different. Dec also can be a fake out before the jet settles into its winter longwave base stats.  We were cooked in late December when the strong PV coupled with the troposphere. 

History suggests when the combination of a very strong central pac ridge and very strong +AO sets in during January it persists the rest of winter most of the time.   That doesn’t mean there is a super pac ridge the whole time but a really anomalous ridge there is indicative a bad pac forcing. It’s a tell that we are fighting a hostile base state. Add in a +AO and we’re toast. 

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dec was different. Dec also can be a fake out before the jet settles into its winter longwave base stats.  We were cooked in late December when the strong PV coupled with the troposphere. 

History suggests when the combination of a very strong central pac ridge and very strong +AO sets in during January it persists the rest of winter most of the time.   That doesn’t mean there is a super pac ridge the whole time but a really anomalous ridge there is indicative a bad pac forcing. It’s a tell that we are fighting a hostile base state. Add in a +AO and we’re toast. 

Whatever the case...I hope we don't have to see this again for a long time. Absolute worst pattern to be in (didn't think anything was worse than ninas...but clearly this setup is. At least we can get a couple inches here and there with a nina, smh). 

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0z GEFS doesn't dump as much energy into the AK trough, then weakens and retros it in the LR. End result is a trough near the Aleutians and a very nicety placed PNA ridge and potentially active southern stream. There are -850 temp anomalies in eastern Canada and along the US east coast with no SE ridge. Not super cold but no torch either.

This has been your daily glimmer of hope in this winter of doom.

I am sure this is happening. 

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EPS is still pretty much a train wreck, although it looks slightly better towards D15. If there is a way out of this crap pattern, it wont come in the next 10 days (broken record). Maybe the last few days of February can be salvaged, otherwise March will have to be the savior.

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8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If ya can't get a fluke in February...in a pattern like this...why in the world would it work in March?

It can work if this pattern breaks down and evolves to something more favorable- either the +AO relaxes or the Pac improves, or both.  

Otherwise March will be just like this, but even warmer.

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37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It can work if this pattern breaks down and evolves to something more favorable- either the +AO relaxes or the Pac improves, or both.  

Otherwise March will be just like this, but even warmer.

Seasonal wave length changes for the win. :D

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It can work if this pattern breaks down and evolves to something more favorable- either the +AO relaxes or the Pac improves, or both.  

Otherwise March will be just like this, but even warmer.

At this point - I don't really care about snow anymore. Seasonal affective disorder is getting to me and I just want it to be warm now. I don't want a repeat of the last two Marches. Just lots of sunshine. I'm sure a few people agree with me on that sentiment as well.

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Only bone I have to throw this am is that PNA is moving in the right direction toward the end of the month in 0z EPS ensembles. Looks like we punt the rest of February.  Maybe we will start to see improvement in our final few weeks of winter and end with a snow storm.  But I would not bet the ranch on it.

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Only bone I have to throw this am is that PNA is moving in the right direction toward the end of the month in 0z EPS ensembles. Looks like we punt the rest of February.  Maybe we will start to see improvement in our final few weeks of winter and end with a snow storm.  But I would not bet the ranch on it.

What about a bunny? 

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Only bone I have to throw this am is that PNA is moving in the right direction toward the end of the month.  Looks like we punt the rest of February.  Maybe we will start to see improvement in our final few weeks of winter and end with a snow storm.  But I would not bet the ranch on it 

Yeah I mentioned that in my post above. It's the GEFS though. Not so much the EPS. Either way, we have seen this "attempt" many times over the past several weeks.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It can work if this pattern breaks down and evolves to something more favorable- either the +AO relaxes or the Pac improves, or both.  

Otherwise March will be just like this, but even warmer.

Well I'd rather there not be a tease...not even looking ahead (as much as I wish there were something hopeful) This is the worst winter we've ever had outside of 1972-73. The WORST...And who knows if the next winter or the one after will be much better. Had something working against us the last 4 years (but at least we still got ambiance snow...can't even buy that). 

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Only bone I have to throw this am is that PNA is moving in the right direction toward the end of the month in 0z EPS ensembles. Looks like we punt the rest of February.  Maybe we will start to see improvement in our final few weeks of winter and end with a snow storm.  But I would not bet the ranch on it.

Tired of hearing "end of the month"...mercy. To punt Feb on the tenth? That is a depressing month....we deserve a late save, though...

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17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well I'd rather there not be a tease...not even looking ahead (as much as I wish there were something hopeful) This is the worst winter we've ever had outside of 1972-73. The WORST...And who knows if the next winter or the one after will be much better. Had something working against us the last 4 years (but at least we still got ambiance snow...can't even buy that). 

Tired of hearing "end of the month"...mercy. To punt Feb on the tenth? That is a depressing month....we deserve a late save, though...

Hope springs eternal 

Hope is not a strategy 

 

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