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About Inverted_Trough

  1. Inverted_Trough

    New Years 2018 Mid-Long Range Disco

    I'd be curious - what was our driest winter (or winters)? And do those winters have any similarities from a ENSO and teleconnections perspective to our current winter so far?
  2. Inverted_Trough

    December Discobs Thread

    DCA also rarely gets calm winds. They're always blowing. While everyone may get calm winds, they'll have winds at about 5 mph, for whatever reason. They also rarely approach 100% humidity. Again, not sure why. They seem to max out at 95% humidity (even during all day rains). It's a unique location for sure.
  3. Inverted_Trough

    Saturday December 30 Snow Obs and Disco

    Let's all agree that the GFS is terrible and seems to be getting worse, and the Euro is slightly less terrible
  4. Inverted_Trough

    December Banter String

    After seeing how terrible the ensembles have been over the past month, I think we should consider other approaches to diagnosing long term weather patterns, like space weather. I've been surprised how generally accurate Roger Smith has been over the years. We never talk about space weather because we don't' understand it. Or at least I don't.
  5. Inverted_Trough

    Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

    A few days ago CPC had above normal precip for the eastern half of the country, on both their 6-10 and 8-14 day panels. All the ensembles were saying this. Of course we can't expect ensembles to get synoptic features correct 7 days out, but they should be able to diagnose whether a pattern is dry vs. wet. We should try to learn from this data point. What exactly went wrong? What was the major feature that the ensembles "saw" a few days ago, that led them to forecast a juicy STJ, that in its absence has resulted in a bone dry pattern? Was it simply just the matter of a flatter ridge out west? It seems that there must be other factors involved as well but we need to identify what went wrong here.
  6. Inverted_Trough

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

    I lived in south central PA, at about an elevation of 1800 feet, during the 1993 Superstorm. That was the closest thing to a hurricane I've ever experienced. The howling winds broke our screen door. By far, the strongest storm I've ever been through. I doubt we'll see an atmospheric explosion like that in a long time. We were at the same location for the Blizzard of 1996...it was a prolific snow producer but the winds weren't nearly as bad.
  7. Inverted_Trough

    Anomalous DCA anomalies?

    I would think the CWG station, located on a rooftop downtown, would be consistently a few degrees warmer than DCA, especially at night. The fact that it mirrors DCA closely doesn't support the 'accuracy' of DCA; if anything, it argues the opposite. In any case, over the past couple weeks DCA has been within 1 degree of IAD, so it appears they read this board and recalibrated their sensor or the transient microclimate that developed in July, now went away.
  8. Inverted_Trough

    Anomalous DCA anomalies?

    I agree that this issue is pervasive. But I also think some airports are worse than others. DCA deserves all the skepticism they get. DCA has continued running 2-3 degrees hotter (for daily maxes) than all nearby ASOS sites for the past couple months. That's a stark change from the prior several months, where it was running very close to other ASOS stations for highs. It could be a microclimate that's developed over the past couple months....or maybe their sensor has "drifted" and needs recalibration. The longer this continues, the more I suspect it's the latter.
  9. Inverted_Trough

    Aug OBS / Discuss

    Probably because it didn't feel like anything close to 100 today
  10. Inverted_Trough

    Aug OBS / Discuss

    Was hoping to see more ASOS reports of 100+ along the DC-NYC today. Most places made it to 98 or 99. The two places that reached/broke 100 are the two usual suspects (DCA, Leesburg). The heat wasn't nothing extraordinary, but the humidity was very impressive.
  11. Inverted_Trough

    Anomalous DCA anomalies?

    Thanks for this analysis, RodneyS. I said from the beginning that the sensor at DCA was a piece-of-crap. I got so much push-back from the usual suspects about how the "sensible weather has changed at both locations" and that "we need more data to make a conclusion" well, we have a year of data, and this confirms that, for 14 months, DCA's temperatures were too high, by about 2-3 degrees. That's fourteen months of the historical record that's significantly tainted. What's frustrating about it is the mentality of NWS with issues like this, where they acknowledge the historical record is flawed, but since they don't know what the "true" measurement should have been, the records stay. The same thing happened with the snowfall measurement in January: they knew the snowfall measurement was very flawed, but kept it anyway since they couldn't determine what the "true" measure should have been.
  12. Inverted_Trough

    Aug OBS / Discuss

    I was only talking about ASOS obs. Looking at PWS is fun for us weather enthusiasts, but they're really not comparable. Looks like the high at DCA was 92. BWI was 89, IAD was 88. So the anomaly continues. Just something interesting that I've noticed recently, is all. It certainly could have a benign explanation. But I don't think they deserve the benefit of the doubt down there -- they've done nothing to earn it.
  13. Inverted_Trough

    Aug OBS / Discuss

    Looks like DCA has gone back to its old self: having readings a few degrees higher than all airports within a 200 nm radius.
  14. Inverted_Trough

    May 2016 Obs/Disco

    If they had last year's broken thermometer, they'd undoubtedly have registered 6 or 7 90-degree days by now For those who haven't made your summer forecasts yet, take into consideration that DCA doesn't have a 'roided up thermometer anymore. I'm happy to see DCA finally being consistent with the other regional airports.
  15. Inverted_Trough

    Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion

    It appears there's a decent chance that some of the N&W suburbs of DC will get at least some snow TV and - who knows - perhaps more than that in the next two weeks. I cringed a little bit when CWG declared winter over. It's too early to make a declarative statement like that. Historically it seems that every time we do this we see one more wintry event.