Inverted_Trough

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Everything posted by Inverted_Trough

  1. Florida had a 15% increase in hospitalizations today. DeSantis lifted all restrictions recently. I'm sure part of his decision was political, but that calculation could backfire.
  2. I would expect that our plateau will continue through September and most of October. November and December become problematic for obvious reasons. Hopefully the outbreaks at universities stay confined there and doesn't move to older folks.
  3. The threshold should be 1) a novel influenza virus; 2) IFR of at least 0.75%. If those criteria are met, then no Taylor Swift concerts. The last time that threshold was met was 1918. The 2009 swine flu was much milder than the traditional flu. 1968 flu pandemic also had an extremely low IFR.
  4. I just went hiking for the past few hours. My coping mechanism is the great outdoors. You should try it sometime. I'm sorry you can't get drunk in a crowded bar or go to a concert right now. It's a tough sacrifice, I know. But this too shall pass. Had Covid hit us in 1918, it would be worse than the Spanish Flu. Comparing pandemics that occurred eons ago -- when medicine was very primitive and we had very little understanding of pathogens - makes your argument weak. The state of the economy is basically tied to how well the virus is controlled at this point. This talk of "lockdowns" makes me believe that you still think it's April and Karen still can't get her nails done.
  5. In case you haven't heard, there's a vaccine for the flu. I get it every year.
  6. QAnon is running rampant, even over there. Their protesters think the 'Rona spreads through 5G.
  7. Pandemics are tough. Sorry that those Taylor Swift concerts are cancelled.
  8. Everything is pretty much open. Other than entertainment venues and some bars.
  9. South Korea never locked down.
  10. DCA was at 89 right when that thunderstorm went through. They've had 11 consecutive days under 90. Only four 90-degree days this month so far. Looks like Summer of 2020 will be remembered as mostly a 5 week stretch of hot weather. The other parts of the summer haven't been that bad.
  11. Some kids actually do better with virtual learning. Some kids do worse. You'll see a lot of innovation happening during this period where education will actually improve. Throwing 30 kids into a classroom and rotating between classes isn't a great way to teach, either. We simply believe it's good because that's how it's been done.
  12. any chance of us going the rest of the month without any 90s? the models seem to think it's possible.. I'm sure DCA will manage a 90 in there somewhere. Regardless, this summer might be remembered as a six-week stretch of persistent heat. Depending upon what September does.
  13. DCA finally went below 70.
  14. The idea of 1000+ deaths per day would have been shocking back in early March. Now we've become numb to it. It's become background noise to many people, unfortunately.
  15. This study was thoroughly debunked when it came out. They also gave the HCQ patients steroids
  16. Testing has gone way down in places like Texas and Florida. Positivity rates have significantly increased in Texas even while testing has gone down. Maybe the long wait times have deterred people from seeking tests, especially if they're not feeling that sick.
  17. Covid isn't going to render humanity extinct, so from that perspective I don't think anyone doubts that we'll "win"....it's just the amount of unnecessary carnage we'll experience to get there. History will judge our response to be a failure. But if we somehow do get an effective vaccine by the end of the year that will certainly be technological marvel.
  18. 7 consecutive days, and 9 out of the last 10 days, were below 90 at DCA. In peak summer and during our anthropocene climate period -- that's a difficult feat, indeed. Maybe almost as difficult to accomplish as our 20 day 90 degree streak! Looks like we'll have a couple days of 90+. But then we might go another extended period of temps below 90. If we manage the rest of the summer with just a handful of 90s, this summer might be remembered as just a six week stretch of heat.
  19. I've been told that some kids actually learn better via virtual learning. The in-person aspect is good for socialization which of course is very important. But throwing thirty kids into a classroom isn't necessarily a great way to teach kids. That's simply the way we've historically done it because that was the most efficient way to teach kids at a mass scale. We haven't done virtual learning for a long enough period of time to truly understand its impacts -- good or bad. I think it's quite possible that a combination of virtual learning and in-person learning might be better than all-virtual or all-in-person.
  20. A significant portion of our population is anti-science and anti-expert. Everything is a conspiracy to them. QAnon has gotten very popular over the past few months.
  21. There was recently a large study (65000+ people) from South Korea that basically concluded kids that at age 10 and over are just as efficient at spreading the virus. It's still an open question whether kids under the age of 10 are efficient spreaders. I think the outbreak at the YMCA camp in Georgia shows how easily kids can spread this thing. You can also look at Israel...they had the virus almost eradicated, until they opened schools. They had so many outbreaks that they had to close all their schools again. Even today, you had several positive cases at some school in Mississippi. I just have a feeling that, a couple months from now, we're going to look back and think to ourselves "What the heck were we thinking?" Hope I'm wrong!
  22. Children are basically vectors for disease propagation, i.e. they don't suffer much from the disease itself but they are efficient spreaders of disease. Opening up schools will increase the velocity of infections, there will be outbreaks, and there will be some teachers that die during these outbreaks. The question is whether society is okay with an increase in the velocity of infections in order to have the benefits of in-person learning. Frankly, I think if we see outbreaks, society might tolerate that for a couple of months, but eventually they'll decide its untenable and many schools will fallback to virtual learning. I think we keep trying to force "normalcy" when normalcy simply isn't possible right now.
  23. I think some people just forget that they have it on, after returning to their car from the grocery store or wherever. That's happened to me a couple of times where I didn't realize I still had it on after returning to the car. It just goes to show you that, if you wear something as part of a routine, your body adjusts to it to the point that sometimes you don't even notice that you're wearing it.
  24. Testing has slowed down over the past couple weeks.