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weatherwiz

February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential

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There is growing consensus in the medium range for a long-duration winter weather event to impact at least a portion of New England. A rather significant trough is expected to dig into the western U.S. over the weekend and continue to amplify as it progresses through the central states. The response will be a strong ridge in the east. There are uncertainties, however, regarding the structure of the ridge across the Northeast as there are indications this will flatten out some. This is key as the trough and associated cold front approach the stage may be set for a long-duration overrunning event across New England; including the potential for a significant icing event. 

  • Weenie 3

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1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Great, next week is now doomed. 
 

Joking aside, sinking boundary probably bodes well for those N of KCON. 

I wouldn't rule out a nasty, abysmal mess for us, esp. inland. Hopefully it is mostly ice here.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A storm thread already? Significant icing at 168hr? :weenie:

Its unreal to start a thread but reality is you probably have wx issues 120 ish

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This thread seems buried. Lol

Yup, that’s what it is.  It needs to be pinned if you want folks to find and post in it..simple as that.

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Got to love tracking rain storms eh.:underthewx:But do not worry when Seattle out does Boston this winter we all know what will happen. :weep:  But perhaps next winter we get a strong ridge over the west and a trough over the east; or perhaps during a La Nina giving the areas that normally get warm some cold and the cold where it is supposed to be warm.:poster_stupid:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

 

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11 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

Is that like sh** or get off the pot?

Lol, it’s two different posters. Wiz is weatherwiz and blizz is DamageinTolland (formerly CTBlizz)

wiz is the convection guy. 

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Definitely meant Wizzy

nam seems it was colder solution before and slowly ticking milder but I’m not coherent enuf to see what extended nam would look like for Friday pm/Saturday 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Definitely meant Wizzy

nam seems it was colder solution before and slowly ticking milder but I’m not coherent enuf to see what extended nam would look like for Friday pm/Saturday 

Nam gives us little if any frozen down here, after it was the coldest solution last night....I assume there is nothing to keep this from blasting into Maine at this point.

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This may turn into a now cast nightmare ... 

That Thursday evening tries to peel away the first wave and associated plausible meso cellular circulation and that might draw a tuck circulation down, setting up icing for the next - and that's the sort of discrete scenario that is under 3K feet and probably not well modeled by any guidance at this range frankly - 

I mean, this could also just be like four waves across 2-days of light to moderate snow/mix ice and/or cold rain ... dart board transition axis anyway.  Good luck nailing down your zones -

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On SV, The 12z ICON is quite the snow producer up here, But pretty limited at what you can look at and i find it rather bullish and quite generous at times with that algorithm.

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This may turn into a now cast nightmare ... 

That Thursday evening tries to peel away the first wave and associated plausible meso cellular circulation and that might draw a tuck circulation down, setting up icing for the next - and that's the sort of discrete scenario that is under 3K feet and probably not well modeled by any guidance at this range frankly - 

I mean, this could also just be like four waves across 2-days of light to moderate snow/mix ice and/or cold rain ... dart board transition axis anyway.  Good luck nailing down your zones -

Yeah the mesolow aspect of this may not be figured out for a quite a while. IT's so fickle but it would have huge consequences for snesible wx....you get a little cold tuck behind the nose of the mesolow going off Boston and into gulf of Maine and all of the sudden you aren't going to be latently warming...keep that in place for round 2 (which looks like it could be a big QPF producer) and you have legit ice storm concerns.

My guess is that stuff will become clearer in the next 24-36 hours....either it will be obvious we don't have the setup for a replenishing dewpoint drain...so we see a slow rise to 33F rain, or this thing shows its hand on being a colder scenario.

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