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Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event

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Sweet!  WWA!  Something must be happening. Not sure. Can’t tell. Seems murky

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Always best when LWX plays catch up.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

MDZ003>006-011-503>508-VAZ053-506-WVZ051-071045-
/O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1700Z-200108T0000Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Fairfax-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan-
934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches.

* WHERE...northeastern and central Maryland as well as the
  Baltimore Metropolitan area.

* WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is
  expected between 3 PM and 6 PM Tuesday afternoon into early
  Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected,
  especially northwest of Interstate 95 into the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour
  with visibility around one-half mile at times.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

VAZ027>031-039-040-501-505-WVZ050-052-053-055-071045-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1600Z-200107T2300Z/
Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock-
Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-
934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Virginia and eastern West
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is
  expected between 1 PM and 4 PM Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected,
  especially Tuesday afternoon into the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates around one inch per hour are
  possible with visibility around one-half mile at times.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-506-071045-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1300Z-200107T2100Z/
Augusta-Rockingham-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland-
Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches, with locally 3 to 5 inches across the higher
  elevations.

* WHERE...The central Shenandoah Valley, Blue Ridge Mountains,
  Potomac Highlands of Virginia, and portions of central
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is
  expected between 11 AM and 2 PM late Tuesday morning into
  Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected,
  especially around midday Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour
  with visibility around one-quarter mile at times.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

VAZ051-052-502-071045-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1600Z-200107T2300Z/
Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Southern Fauquier-
934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Culpeper, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park and
  Southern Fauquier Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is
  expected between 2 PM and 5 PM Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected,
  especially northwest of interstate 95 Tuesday afternoon into the
  evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates around one inch per hour are
  possible with visibility around one-half mile at times.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Always best when LWX plays catch up.

I love the little critters that just pop up. It’s like severe season for us, the sneaky setups with low expectations are our best events. 

Yes, I’m using the term “us” and “our”. I’m still part of this subforum. #WxFam

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

VAZ050-071045-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1300Z-200107T2100Z/
Orange-
934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Orange County.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is
  expected between 1 PM and 4 PM Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are possible,
  especially around midday Tuesday into the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour
  with visibility around one-half mile at times.

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34 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM's ratio's are really solid from Leesburg and west right at the start. 11-12 to 1 for the entire event. Really looking forward to tomorrow. I will be in Harrisonburg, VA until around noon. Then driving up the Shenandoah Valley on 81 to Winchester. Should be fun.

31/19 NW of Winchester.

You better get on 11 and stay there.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I love the little critters that just pop up. It’s like severe season for us, the sneaky setups with low expectations are our best events. 

Yes, I’m using the term “us” and “our”. I’m still part of this subforum. #WxFam

Feels great to track an event again.  Seems like Bristow may rescind his reservation request.

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Just now, nj2va said:

Feels great to track an event again.  Seems like Bristow may rescind his reservation request.

Hopefully I can cancel without penalty. 

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Interesting that the precip trajectory, or at least on the snow maps for the NAM’s changed to more ne to sw from the earlier w to e tilt. They also expanded the heavier precip a good deal to the nw. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Feels great to track an event again.  Seems like Bristow may rescind his reservation request.

You and I both know it’s best for him to keep that appointment. No sense in delaying the inevitable. :lol: 

 

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25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

No more worry about being fringed though ..anyway . 3knam went from sunny skies here at 6z to fringed at 12z and bumping north steadily.  Should be fun everywhere in central Md tomorrow through south central pa. 

I’ve been a downer all day over this...but 18z was pretty good. So I’m becoming more optimistic 

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Also, thank goodness yoda pastes the advisory texts, I’d never know what they say otherwise 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
957 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain overhead overnight. Low pressure will
move quickly northeast across the region Tuesday. Another area
of high pressure will transit the region Wednesday and Thursday
before a cold front approaches on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure has settled overhead and it will remain overhead
through late tonight. There will be some high clouds ahead of
approaching low pressure, but the cloud deck will be thin.
Therefore, radiational cooling is expected and min temps are
expected to drop into the 20s for most areas to the 30s in the
urban areas and near the waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Moving into tomorrow, a compact shortwave will approach from the
OH/TN Valleys, bringing a period of snow to the region. While
the shortwave itself won`t be large in areal extent, it will be
a sharp feature, with a very short wavelength (which will lead
to strong lift in the zone of differential cyclonic vorticity
advection in advance of the wave). Given the short wavelength
and the rapid movement of the shortwave, the areal extent of
the precipitation is expected to be small, but the precipitation
may be rather intense. Expect that snow at least reaches
moderate intensity in most locations, and brief bursts of heavy
snow can`t be ruled out. Guidance has progressively trended
heavier with the QPF over the last few model runs, and some
models indicate 1 hourly QPF values in excess of one tenth of
an inch will be possible across central Virginia late tomorrow
morning and toward northern VA/central MD/eastern WV Tuesday
afternoon. As a result, we`ve upped snow totals and raised
Winter Weather Advisories for most locations northwest of
Interstate 95. For the suburbs of Washington into the Baltimore
Metropolitan area, temperatures will be well above freezing to
start and this does lower confidence in the forecast. However,
the warm layer will be thin so latest thinking is that
evaporative cooling and dynamical cooling from heavier precip
rates should overcome that warm air. This is why these areas
were added into the advisory. Farther south and east confidence
lowers due to even warmer conditions preceding the event. Having
that been said, a period of accumulating snow is even possible
in DC into the southern and eastern suburbs. Also, the Winter
Weather Advisory may need to be expanded into western Maryland
and the Allegheny Highlands of eastern WV. Across these areas
confidence is lower due to a higher criteria 3" for advisories
and the fact that the gradient will be near these areas. Having
that been said, an impact from accumulating snow is expected.

In terms of timing, precip is expected to overspread the area
from southwest to northeast, with snow starting across
southwestern portions of the forecast area after 8 AM. In any
given spot, the snow should only last 4-5 hours, but as was
previously mentioned, could come down at a moderate to heavy
clip during that time. Expect the snow to move into the metro
areas for the mid-late afternoon hours. Temperatures may briefly
climb into the upper 30s to near 40 before the precipitation
starts, so can`t rule out it starting as a brief period of rain
or mixed rain and snow. However, it should quickly change to all
snow as the lower atmosphere wet bulbs back into the lower 30s.
The only area where it may stay rain for most of the event will
be across far southern MD. Snow will be moving out of the
Washington and Baltimore areas during the evening commute, but
temps may drop below freezing Tuesday night and with west/slushy
roads in place there may be some icy conditions.

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33 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Just about no one I spoke to knows anything about this snow, which is now less than 18 hrs out.  Could be a mess.  

Ingredient #1

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We've all seen this movie before so hopefully nobody gets butthurt if it follows history....that said things feel good out this way for a pretty landscape 
Cwg calling for 65 5 days from now

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Just now, Ji said:
29 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
We've all seen this movie before so hopefully nobody gets butthurt if it follows history....that said things feel good out this way for a pretty landscape 

Cwg calling for 65 5 days from now

Lol did you see me trolling them today?

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
We've all seen this movie before so hopefully nobody gets butthurt if it follows history....that said things feel good out this way for a pretty landscape 

Cwg calling for 65 5 days from now

         I think it's legit and may actually end up too low.    Most guidance shows 850 temps approaching +15 here.    Saturday and Saturday night are likely toasty, and Sunday could be too if the GFS solution is too fast.

 

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1”/hr rates as progged by the mesoscale models will quickly overcome the BL issues, even some main roads. It won’t take much this time of the year. 

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