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MountainGeek

Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event

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2M temps at onset. The NAM is getting colder as we get closer as well. Earlier I said someone is going to get 3 inches out of this. But 4 is a realistic possibility now for the southern Valley. Fun event to track.

sfct.us_ma.png

sfct.us_ma.png

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2 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Nam for the win!!

lol

image.thumb.png.e81137c81b01287e40a5acdec79e6642.png

Wow! Imagine this actually turned into a legit event in the middle of our craptastic pattern.  I guess if there's any time of the year when we we can make 33-34 work it's early January.

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

All in until something better comes along. :weenie:

 

 

This has to be the top end run that set expectations too high that results in people getting 1-2" and being pissed off. lol. It's engraved in the script. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

This has to be the top end run that set expectations too high that results in people getting 1-2" and being pissed off. lol. It's engraved in the script. 

Until HRDRPS has like 9" lol

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

This has to be the top end run that set expectations too high that results in people getting 1-2" and being pissed off. lol. It's engraved in the script. 

I am a realist. If that 4.4 over my yard is an inch I will be thrilled.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This has to be the top end run that set expectations too high that results in people getting 1-2" and being pissed off. lol. It's engraved in the script. 

We haven't had the HRRRDDRRPPS run that gives us a foot in 2 hours yet.  But its coming.

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Just now, LP08 said:

We haven't had the HRRRDDRRPPS run that gives us a foot in 2 hours yet.  But its coming.

Hopefully the Canadians (RGEM) give us love too like the NAM twins just did

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

This has to be the top end run that set expectations too high that results in people getting 1-2" and being pissed off. lol. It's engraved in the script. 

So funny to watch people forget where they live. Personally I think a half inch to 2" is my range. I suppose 3" could happen in a totally shaded north facing spot on a trash can lid

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

So funny to watch people forget where they live. Personally I think a half inch to 2" is my range. I suppose 3" could happen in a totally shaded north facing spot on a trash can lid

I've felt like 1" is a big win since this first showed up. I'll stick with that but very encouraging 12&18z runs today. 

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Nice cool NW breeze picked up. Still 50F so that always makes me uneasy.  You can tell it’s cold above however.  1 real inch no slant stick.  That’s ok with me.  I also have a bottle of blue label from Xmas.  Also Ok. 

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6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Gonna call out Ji again...where you at? We score before Jan 20th

He’s maybe looking at the HRRR someone mentioned earlier.  

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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Moving into tomorrow, a compact shortwave will approach from the
OH/TN Valleys, bringing a period of snow to the region. While
the shortwave itself won't be large in areal extent, it will be
a sharp feature, with a very short wavelength (which will lead 
to strong lift in the zone of differential cyclonic vorticity
advection in advance of the wave). Given the short wavelength
and the rapid movement of the shortwave, the areal extent of
the precipitation is expected to be small, but the precipitation
may be rather intense. Expect that snow at least reaches
moderate intensity in most locations, and brief bursts of heavy
snow can't be ruled out. Guidance has progressively trended
heavier with the QPF over the last few model runs, and some
models indicate 1 hourly QPF values in excess of one tenth of 
an inch will be possible across central Virginia late tomorrow 
morning. As a result, we've upped snow totals and raised Winter 
Weather Advisories across southwestern portions of the forecast 
area.

 

 

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What a nice look tomorrow for good old Torchanuary. Can’t wait for the OBS thread. Should be rocking! Any chance this gets here earlier so schools don’t even open? Inquiring for some teenage daughters...
 

Meh. Who we kidding!? It’s the DMV.  They’re probably closing as I type. :lol:

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24 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I am rehabilitated board wise. Have you noticed??

I have.  I'm scared it might be tenuous though.  I'm cautiously optimistic.  When the next big one hits, that'll be the true test! :snowman:

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I literally can’t recall a single event where the snow depth map was the best verifying forecast product.  Yes 10:1 isn’t always good. Kuchera seems to be in the right sort of ballpark if there’s any precip type or temp issues. Tomorrow isn’t THAT marginal unless you want to take your spotter reports from on the asphalt of the beltway.

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This has to be the top end run that set expectations too high that results in people getting 1-2" and being pissed off. lol. It's engraved in the script. 

I think we're at the peak.  We back down a little from him to set the expectations right.  If I get a sloppy inch of snow, I'm lucky.  

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59 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

We have seen time and time again, NWS is always playing catch up 

They have plenty of time to make adjustments. They are doing a decent job so far imo. 00z runs on guidance will be the biggest time frame for areas to the NE. SW portion of the CWA is a slam dunk WWA. 

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My gut says dc gets good snow tv but blanked on tha accum department. McLean on NW and Rockville points west see 1-2. Hagerstown cashes in. Winchester down to snowshoe and valley gets the goods on this setup.

Eitherway nice to be in the game. I’ve seen signs of PNA perhaps flipping and PAC jet finally slowing down a bit

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I literally can’t recall a single event where the snow depth map was the best verifying forecast product.  Yes 10:1 isn’t always good. Kuchera seems to be in the right sort of ballpark if there’s any precip type or temp issues. Tomorrow isn’t THAT marginal unless you want to take your spotter reports from on the asphalt of the beltway.

I feel like this is a tough call with the temperatures because if this thing really thumps, then it could drag down colder air and also it will just be easier to accumulate. Might really come down to how heavy the rates get. Get the rates, get a few inches. Don't get the rates, get white rain.

Agree on the snow depth maps. I find them totally useless except for when white rain is the expectation.

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