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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


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58 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

READY    SET     GO     Put on your swimsuits or man the snow shovels?

JB is stressing the fact that the EURO Weeklies have 40" of Snow for us over the next 46 days, but the OP has none for the first 10 days of this period.     This would then be an inch per day affair.

Anyone remember what the weeklies were for the last 46 days to date?

Currently we have 4.8", say half of the normal.

That was the control. The control is, to be charitable, not the best guide for such forecasts.

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2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

28 imby this morning...I wonder how cold it would have been 150 years ago when they started keeping records...hardly any uhi around central park back then...

There's a good book on this I bought at the Bronx Zoo years ago called Manahatta; talks about the island before it was a mega city or even close; Canal St used to cross a canal, the water supply was a fresh water pond in lower Manhattan IIRC, possibly called Wreck Pond. 

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33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Huge difference in the GEPS and GEFS in the LR. Looks like the GEFS wants to put the ridge over Hawaii once again while GEPS wants a nice EPO ridge.

I do not have the EPS past day 10 so do not know what it shows.

The EPS is basically a coin flip.  It doesn’t look bad but or great but you can see how a subtle shift one way or the other can turn it into a fairly great pattern or a catastrophe 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The EPS is basically a coin flip.  It doesn’t look bad but or great but you can see how a subtle shift one way or the other can turn it into a fairly great pattern or a catastrophe 

Thanks. You would think we would get at least one good 2 week period. With the exception of 01/02 and 97/98 we had a pattern relaxation. Unreal. Pattern changes but the results stay the same.

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10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

There's a good book on this I bought at the Bronx Zoo years ago called Manahatta; talks about the island before it was a mega city or even close; Canal St used to cross a canal, the water supply was a fresh water pond in lower Manhattan IIRC, possibly called Wreck Pond. 

I think it was called collect pond.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC is currently the 9th warmest January with a week to go.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1932 43.2 0
2 1990 41.4 0
- 1950 41.4 0
3 2006 40.9 0
4 1913 40.8 0
5 1937 40.2 0
- 1933 40.2 0
6 1998 40.0 0
7 2002 39.9 0
8 1880 39.2 0
9 2020 39.0 8
10 1949 38.6 0

 

 

You would prob be near the top 5 if this week did not happen. 

 

Got the p7 response without a lag.

 

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_week_anom.png.0f65d0520b8417f1bc1873c9252b7200.png

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7 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

If you were a betting person, which way would you lean?

its going to be all about "timing" of HP to the north and the models are showing an active southern stream of one storm after another for the next few weeks - last weekend we had great timing with a fresh injection of cold air - immediately followed by a system to the west creating an over running setup before the cold air could escape. Next weekends storm around Feb 1st- 3rd will be another system which will depend on the HP to the north building in and when the forecasted Miller A type system approaches from the south - the track looks good BUT the positioning of the HP to the north and its strength  is critical in this situation

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

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39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The EPS is basically a coin flip.  It doesn’t look bad but or great but you can see how a subtle shift one way or the other can turn it into a fairly great pattern or a catastrophe 

This winter my money is on the catastrophe.

Which of course will just be a continuation of the current 34 day catastrophe.

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its going to be all about "timing" of HP to the north and the models are showing an active southern stream of one storm after another for the next few weeks - last weekend we had great timing with a fresh injection of cold air - immediately followed by a system to the west creating an over running setup before the cold air could escape. Next weekends storm around Feb 1st- 3rd will be another system which will depend on the HP to the north building in and when the forecasted Miller A type system approaches from the south - the track looks good BUT the positioning of the HP to the north and its strength  is critical in this situation

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

Thank you for the explanation--much appreciated

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59 minutes ago, uncle W said:

28 imby this morning...I wonder how cold it would have been 150 years ago when they started keeping records...hardly any uhi around central park back then...

During the Winter of 1780 the waters of NY Harbor froze over completely (I'm hoping you have some kind of research on that). Troops were able to walk heavy cannons over the river from Manhattan to NJ. Think of how cold that winter must have been around NYC for that to happen. My guess would be the monthly average during one of the Met winter months or maybe a couple of them had to be 15° or below. If anything like that happened now it would be heralded as the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

During the Winter of 1780 the waters of NY Harbor froze over completely (I'm hoping you have some kind of research on that). Troops were able to walk heavy cannons over the river from Manhattan to NJ. Think of how cold that winter must have been around NYC for that to happen. My guess would be the monthly average during one of the Met winter months or maybe a couple of them had to be 15° or below. If anything like that happened now it would be heralded as the end of the world.

Wow, very interesting.  That was a brutal Winter indeed, the same one in fact where Washington set up camp in Morristown.

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

During the Winter of 1780 the waters of NY Harbor froze over completely (I'm hoping you have some kind of research on that). Troops were able to walk heavy cannons over the river from Manhattan to NJ. Think of how cold that winter must have been around NYC for that to happen. My guess would be the monthly average during one of the Met winter months or maybe a couple of them had to be 15° or below. If anything like that happened now it would be heralded as the end of the world.

Yeah, January 1780 was probably the coldest month on record since the settlers arrived.
 

https://books.google.com/books?id=mon_ivVXUY4C&pg=PA60&lpg=PA60&dq=philadelphia+area+weather+book+january+1780&source=bl&ots=uQqtI1kkA1&sig=ACfU3U3Knse60FfcmGIdLevsstiIuJyzDQ&hl=en&ppis=_e&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi-lJGx3JznAhWlV98KHe_BDLcQ6AEwCnoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=philadelphia area weather book january 1780&f=false

4DF0EE2D-0417-43B6-A62A-0519E8486D9C.thumb.jpeg.5e38fdd92999666df57a9f7f88060b46.jpeg

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The coldest December on record in NYC is Dec 1831...

NYC averaged 22.2...-2.7 lower than the lowest December in Central Park...Average came from Fort Columbus on Governors Island NY...I found a daily record from Erasmus Hall in Brooklyn NY...Highs and lows are the morning observation and afternoon observation...Highs and lows could be a little higher or lower each day...

day max...min...snow...depth...

01... 32.....23.....T.......1"

02... 32.....23.....0.......1"

03... 26.....22.....0.......1"

04... 30.....20.....2"......3"

05... 25.....14.....0.......3"

06... 25.....15.....0.......3"

07... 26.....14.....0.......3"

08... 28.....20.....0.......3"

09... 32.....24.....0.......3"

10... 30.....20.....0.......2"

11... 35.....20.....0.......1"

12... 27.....18.....0.......1"

13... 25.....16.....0.......1"

14... 23.....17.....1"......2"

15... 21.....13.....2"......4"

16... 25.....11.....0.......4"

17... 26.....11.....T.......4"

18... 17.......9.....0.......4"

19... 26.....18.....0.......4"

20... 26.....18.....0.......4"

21... 38.....24.....0.......2"

22... 24.....10.....0.......2"

23... 24.......8.....0.......2"

24... 38.....26.....2"......2" might have started as rain...

25... 34.....26.....1"......2" White Christmas...

26... 30.....20.....1"......3"

27... 25.....18.....0.......3"

28... 29.....21...10"....13"

29... 33.....24.....0.....13"

30... 24.....13.....0.....13"

31... 32.....18.....2"....13"

http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very%20Cold%20Periods%20in%20the%20Eastern%20US.pdf

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13 minutes ago, uncle W said:

The coldest December on record in NYC is Dec 1831...

NYC averaged 22.2...-2.7 lower than the lowest December in Central Park...Average came from Fort Columbus on Governors Island NY...I found a daily record from Erasmus Hall in Brooklyn NY...Highs and lows are the morning observation and afternoon observation...Highs and lows could be a little higher or lower each day...

day max...min...snow...depth...

01... 32.....23.....T.......1"

02... 32.....23.....0.......1"

03... 26.....22.....0.......1"

04... 30.....20.....2"......3"

05... 25.....14.....0.......3"

06... 25.....15.....0.......3"

07... 26.....14.....0.......3"

08... 28.....20.....0.......3"

09... 32.....24.....0.......3"

10... 30.....20.....0.......2"

11... 35.....20.....0.......1"

12... 27.....18.....0.......1"

13... 25.....16.....0.......1"

14... 23.....17.....1"......2"

15... 21.....13.....2"......4"

16... 25.....11.....0.......4"

17... 26.....11.....T.......4"

18... 17.......9.....0.......4"

19... 26.....18.....0.......4"

20... 26.....18.....0.......4"

21... 38.....24.....0.......2"

22... 24.....10.....0.......2"

23... 24.......8.....0.......2"

24... 38.....26.....2"......2" might have started as rain...

25... 34.....26.....1"......2" White Christmas...

26... 30.....20.....1"......3"

27... 25.....18.....0.......3"

28... 29.....21...10"....13"

29... 33.....24.....0.....13"

30... 24.....13.....0.....13"

31... 32.....18.....2"....13"

http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very%20Cold%20Periods%20in%20the%20Eastern%20US.pdf

Definitely climate change at work. /sarcasm 

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It takes almost impossibly good luck for a storm not to cut west of us or be a hugger if there’s no blocking north of us or a PNA ridge that forces the storm track to go to our south. Both of those factors are unfavorable for at least the next week. Without those, I’m not really interested in any threat. It’ll probably transition into a cutter closer in like the incoming storm tomorrow which looked better early this week. We may luck out with a cold air shot and incoming SWFE like last week, but that was generally a minor event anyway. 

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