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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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Wow, mighty quite in here, is there nothing on the horizon?  I keep hearing about next Thursday the 27 and March 4.  ❄️❄️:snowwindow:

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1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

Wow, mighty quite in here, is there nothing on the horizon?  I keep hearing about next Thursday the 27 and March 4.  ❄️❄️:snowwindow:

Meh another rain maker then more cold. Weak disturbance 29th-1st that has possibilities. Looks like some decent upslope for the mountain folks coming up. Long range def has some cold air shots though. Was hoping to see another before I hit the road in March for work. But will see some snow on the banks of Lake Ontario for sure!

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Honestly, all we can hope for at this point is some cold. If the modeled cold verifies over the next couple of weeks we'll have a shot or two. We all know that many of our events aren't modeled a week or two in advance, and often show up within just 2-4 days. Give me the cold and I'll take my chances, especially this late in the game. 

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9 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

ICON has the storm.

There will have to be some major changes on the h5 level to even become favorable. 

Icon for example.  The two SW need a trajectory from Montana to Tx. Not Montana to LA, Ms, Al. It's got dig more South West. 

 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Now we’re getting desperate, lol! 
But really, it’s a 2-8-20 redux! Looks very cold too

Yeah, temps won’t be a problem with this one :mellow:

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Time is rapidly running out for anyone outside the mountains.  The chance for snow drastically decreases as we head into March outside the mountains.  Especially with the way high latitude blocking looks. Its a wonder we have seen anything at all with a plus plus AO and NAO.

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18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Time is rapidly running out for anyone outside the mountains.  The chance for snow drastically decreases as we head into March outside the mountains.  Especially with the way high latitude blocking looks. Its a wonder we have seen anything at all with a plus plus AO and NAO.

Saturday still looks interesting on 18z. Looks like something tries to pop off the coast. Very cold atmosphere ! 540 0 degree line, S of Jacksonville FL, and low does pop off the Carolinas, hmm! MYB might end up with more snow than the mountains!?

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23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Saturday still looks interesting on 18z. Looks like something tries to pop off the coast. Very cold atmosphere ! 540 0 degree line, S of Jacksonville FL, and low does pop off the Carolinas, hmm! MYB might end up with more snow than the mountains!?

Good luck.

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I don't think next weekend is going to amount to anything. Just doesn't dig far enough west for us but it could change. Maybe some upslope in the mountains but thats it.

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Time is rapidly running out for anyone outside the mountains.  The chance for snow drastically decreases as we head into March outside the mountains.  Especially with the way high latitude blocking looks. Its a wonder we have seen anything at all with a plus plus AO and NAO.

I’ve seen snow thrice in February with a record AO! Icon says #4 is on the way! :ski:

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2 hours ago, WarmNose said:

I’ve seen snow thrice in February with a record AO! Icon says #4 is on the way! :ski:

I will gladly take some extra snow, but I am really rooting for our comrades in the MA to score something.

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53 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I will gladly take some extra snow, but I am really rooting for our comrades in the MA to score something.

:lol:   :angry:  :lol:    Blasphemy   :P     

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Don't throw in the towel folks! We still have a good 20-30 days where anything could happen.  I think we have one more "winter storm" as well as a surprise like the N.Ga/Upstate event from a few weeks back!! Let's stay optimistic!!! :-)

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Day 6 and 7 00z Euro is interesting from a pattern standpoint. The strong cut off over new England would promote phasing and a low closer to the coast for the trailing PJ wave. Something to monitor. 

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

For next weekend, each run of the GFS Ensemble spits out a few members with a decent storm.  We've had some storms work out in the past with this type of setup, but the wave has to drop into the trough just right.

1lneMRC.png

wmfdoqP.png

We’ve been threading the needle since 2010:sled:

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06z GFS closes off a low(weak) over southern Mississippi on Saturday morning which gives a little blue-radar stuff to northern parts of Alabama. Fizzles as it reaches Georgia as the low is squashed.  00z did as well, but just a little further north before squashing as well.  Neither Euro or CMC have shown this feature.

Curious to see if 12z has it today.

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Based on the GFS and Euro runs early this morning, the March 4th system would be more cutter like leaving us warm and facing more a severe weather threat than any kind of wintry precip. After that the pattern goes to crap once again. Prior to this, there are a few weak waves that die as they cross the NC mountains during the brief cold shot. The mountains may pick up a couple of light snow events with those disturbances. 

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48 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Based on the GFS and Euro runs early this morning, the March 4th system would be more cutter like leaving us warm and facing more a severe weather threat than any kind of wintry precip. After that the pattern goes to crap once again. Prior to this, there are a few weak waves that die as they cross the NC mountains during the brief cold shot. The mountains may pick up a couple of light snow events with those disturbances. 

I’d be good with that. Bring on the warmer days!

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