• Member Statistics

    15,735
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    dorkchopper
    Newest Member
    dorkchopper
    Joined
jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

Recommended Posts

On 1/14/2020 at 12:17 PM, Cold Rain said:

The one next week is really not that far away from getting really interesting really fast.  I have a feeling that there are going to be a lot of long nights over the next couple of weeks.

Well the internet if this post. Ould not have possibly been more wrong, unless your long nights are due to nightmares about 10+ January temperature departures. 

Winter is over (maybe that will work).  :)

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That Tuesday/Wednesday disturbance dropping through the plains , has become more robust on the 12z today! And I think it gets together with something to form the coastal, which has also inches closer to the coast. Grasping , I know, but what else do we have to track besides the next warm up

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That Tuesday/Wednesday disturbance dropping through the plains , has become more robust on the 12z today! And I think it gets together with something to form the coastal, which has also inches closer to the coast. Grasping , I know, but what else do we have to track besides the next warm up

:bag:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, SteveRDU said:

Hard to get excited when Dr. No isn’t really onboard...

??? The weeklies looked good for Feb! Of course they're terrible...so time will tell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:


It’s just hard to get excited about anything right now. However, we will continue to watch and wait...


.

The upcoming week and the week after are a total bust by the eps. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

The upcoming week and the week after are a total bust by the eps. 

The OP Euro caught on first to the crap pattern though still..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

The 30th storm is our only hope! A lot better than the last few runs, and still a lot of work!

D10+ is a perpetual mirage and yet we never learn.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SteveRDU said:

D10+ is a perpetual mirage and yet we never learn.

Wishing our lives away, 10 Days at a time...

 

  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, IWC said:

Wishing our lives away, 10 Days at a time...

 

Spring is basically here so this madness should come to a halt anytime now 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Moderated but delayed winter coming, bank on it.  Meaning we'll have 40's and 50's out to the end of April.  The only unknown is whether or not we can still squeak out a Fab Feb special in the second half of the month.  It only takes one storm to make a winter.  But that D10+ pattern shift is elusive for sure.  Until that is HERE, and not 72, 240 or 300 hours out, we dont stand a chance at winter weather.  Enjoy your sun today!

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Story of the winter so far is the +AO. You can just look at a Northern Hemispheric 500mb map and it's obvious looking. The polar vortex is very strong/singular and it's very cold over the northern latitudes this winter. Until that changes, it will be hard to get any appreciable cold air into the south.

 

ao.sprd2.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Story of the winter so far is the +AO. You can just look at a Northern Hemispheric 500mb map and it's obvious looking. The polar vortex is very strong/singular and it's very cold over the northern latitudes this winter. Until that changes, it will be hard to get any appreciable cold air into the south.

 

ao.sprd2.gif

Which is depressing as I've always wanted to find a correlation b/n the lower Sunspot activity/Solar Min and -AO!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

 

 several other tweets on his profile show that JMA has been really really accurate out to 2 weeks for the past month or so. A sign of hope perhaps.

Well the op euro shows a strong low pressure for the mid atlantic and heavy snow in western VA, WVA, and portions of NW NC next weekend..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ICON has snow showers for Brunswick, New Hanover, Horry and Georgetown counties on Tuesday.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

ICON has snow showers for Brunswick, New Hanover, Horry and Georgetown counties on Tuesday.

We shall see, as I live in the area..  Checked the Models, certainly possible but highly unlikely.. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

looks like a chance we could get some ice Friday morning.  dew points are fairly low as precip breaks out. Warm nose is only 2/3C and caps out around 850mb.  Something to watch.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something to keep an eye on is maybe some light snow over north ga tonight..hrrr is showing some. (In fact up to an inch or more in the mountains over toward rome). Nav also has been consistent with a little. Despite the dry profiles and runs of everything else, still  wouldn't surprise me to see some meso effects create a small area of flurries/showers into tomorrow morning. Not a huge chance but better than zero which is a lot considering how   horrible this winter has been.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, burrel2 said:

looks like a chance we could get some ice Friday morning.  dew points are fairly low as precip breaks out. Warm nose is only 2/3C and caps out around 850mb.  Something to watch.

No we will not have ice Friday morning

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

No we will not have ice Friday morning

Do you have any evidence to counteract what he presented?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Do you have any evidence to counteract what he presented?

12z Euro showed a smidge if onset frozen up around Buncombe, Haywood, Yancey, McDowell counties..other than that, not much. Subject to change 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...