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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

1973 says hello!:sled:

I remember that storm well. We lived in a large subdivision in NRal. Neighbors blocked a long street off with a huge hill. Bonfire at the top.  We sledded for 3 days. Sigh, been a long time....

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7 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

I remember that storm well. We lived in a large subdivision in NRal. Neighbors blocked a long street off with a huge hill. Bonfire at the top.  We sledded for 3 days. Sigh, been a long time....

Just curious, was that subdivision North Haven?

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24 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Brentwood, I guess that's more midtown now lol.

Brentwood is such a tight community - graduated from Millbrook in '84

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2 minutes ago, annieB said:

Brentwood is such a tight community - graduated from Millbrook in '84

Millbrook till 78 Enloe for Grad 79 Nice to meet you neighbor. Let's take this to banter before Mr Burns calls us out:)

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

Could go down as one of the worst winters ever if @Isotherm is correct with his new update.  He's done very well with his outlook so far (unlike me!) - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52684-my-winter-outlook-2019-2020/?do=findComment&comment=5430163

 

Yikes. Honestly though this would probably be the worst winter in my lifetime for WNC when combining lack of threats, warm temps, excessive rain

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yikes. Honestly though this would probably be the worst winter in my lifetime for WNC when combining lack of threats, warm temps, excessive rain

Yeah let’s see how it plays out, but we’ve essentially been shutout so far on storm threats. That’s the one that stands out of the 3 you mentioned. Even in the horrid winter of 11-12, we had the one weak storm in Feb across parts of NC 

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33 minutes ago, griteater said:

Could go down as one of the worst winters ever if @Isotherm is correct with his new update.  He's done very well with his outlook so far (unlike me!) - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52684-my-winter-outlook-2019-2020/?do=findComment&comment=5430163

 

There is nothing even remotely positive in the long range, if you like cold and snow! A week ago, we looked to be entering a glorious patter on into February and good cold MJO phases, now we are just looking at a crap pattern of normal to above,after the next 5 days

Its amazing to me how a 10-15 day snow storm can show up for 3 or 4 runs and then vanish, but once that 14 day fantasy blizzard tracks across CHI, with rain up to there, it’ll lock in and never waver at 10-15 rains

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Last December’s storm dropped 16 inches of snow imby, and I joked with everyone that it was enough snow in one storm to account form two winters. Mother Nature must’ve thought so too :facepalm:

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38 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Let the NW trend commence! Almost perfect HP placement, just need the LP closer to the coast! 

FB7AB826-A89F-4E71-90BA-58ABC92F3709.jpeg

Lol! Seems like we track one of these a winter, where they start way off the coast, plenty of cold air, we watch incremental shifts West, only to finally end up with flurries on the outer banks 

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2 hours ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Hope is dwindling, but it’s hope

Coastals usually tick back east in the last 48 hours. It will be crucial to get those bigger totals on land before the inevitable eastward jog 

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2 hours ago, jjwxman said:

Let the NW trend commence! Almost perfect HP placement, just need the LP closer to the coast! 

FB7AB826-A89F-4E71-90BA-58ABC92F3709.jpeg

Why, oh why, can't that low be off the the coast of N Orleans? 

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Our local weather guy just showed future radar, it’s looking highly likely that my area will see some sleet and flurries at onset!:sled:

He also had a 20% chance of snow on Tuesday, saying he’s watching a disturbance!:maprain:

All we have to hang our hats on this winter

 

Screenshot_20200117-182247_Facebook.jpg

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8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I’ll take it! Of course Kendra found a map with 100% rain!:gun_bandana:

Rule of thumb: Go with the warmest model :guitar:

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Well the quiet on here speaks for itself, this is terrible guys, we have the cold and can't get the moisture, then we'll get the moisture and it warms up.  :facepalm::axe:

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57 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Well the quiet on here speaks for itself, this is terrible guys, we have the cold and can't get the moisture, then we'll get the moisture and it warms up.  :facepalm::axe:

Same occurring in the TN Valley area - north of Nashville here - looks like the same pattern to continue - got to break this pattern of poor winters - this is like the third one in a row where winter is MIA

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1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

Well the quiet on here speaks for itself, this is terrible guys, we have the cold and can't get the moisture, then we'll get the moisture and it warms up.  :facepalm::axe:

And nobody wanted to take my word for it

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7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

And nobody wanted to take my word for it

I knew in December January was toast. Now it looks like February is too. I can't believe the GSP to RDU corridor may get skunked completely. I'd give that an 80% chance of happening right now. But I'm not surprised with today's climate. 

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31 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I knew in December January was toast. Now it looks like February is too. I can't believe the GSP to RDU corridor may get skunked completely. I'd give that an 80% chance of happening right now. But I'm not surprised with today's climate. 

Yeah it is not even a real pattern change right now, just a temporary relaxation in the SE ridge. Climo time will be wiped clean soon enough.

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