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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Close up, Mack will be happya3c064721f56e582a39f8bb8fc9f07ed.jpg

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Winner winner chicken dinner! This is about 3-4 days that there is some “ sort” of cold and moisture lurking very close together! It has legs!

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2 hours ago, Extreme NEGA said:

The 12z Canadian did have this system too at the end of it's run....

Yeah really surprised this wasnt brought up earlier after the 12z runs.

Both GFS and Canadian onto something?

More digging with the southern stream with the Canadian.  Ideally would want to see more ridging out west gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

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We used to say BOOM alot back in the good old days when Burger was here calling the PBP on the Euro.  You know, back when BOOM actually meant something.  Now....well now we just say NEXT!

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2 hours ago, FLweather said:

Yeah really surprised this wasnt brought up earlier after the 12z runs.

Both GFS and Canadian onto something?

More digging with the southern stream with the Canadian.  Ideally would want to see more ridging out west gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

I think we need that western ridge a little taller and a few hundred miles further west to help dig that low just a bit more. Also, like to see the high hang back a few hundred miles, more in tandem (just ahead of) with the low (maybe back in MIZZ). Actually this would be excellent placement if we had a secondary high back north of the low. This looks in danger of getting pushed out unless that's a 50/50 low in the corner to help keep it anchored.

It's also telling that a 1043 is that close yet the 540 bar is barely below. Haven't looked at temps but that tells me it's pretty marginal cold. Awesome to have something at least showing up within the ten day. This will change a hundred times so let's see if we can get this potential to show up inside 5 days.

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Poof goes the storm

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Should we shoot for 15 days out ??

 

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3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

That is a crazy number.

 

Yeah hopefully some hope, in the meantime if the NWS is right starting Friday I am about to spend 3-4 days ( at least) with my daily lows being higher than my normal daily highs...we wont be able to get under 50-53 at night in Jan for days....…..that's just sad and depressing.....I mean hell if nature is gonna do me like that at least throw in some decent thunderstorms my way.

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Good post Q.  The cold coming east after the 16th or so is being pretty consistently modeled.  Have no chance at significant winter storm in the SE without cold in the eastern half.  Pretty frustrating seeing Portland getting ready for potential winter storms over the next 7 days when their annual average snowfall is 3".  

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55 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

First step is for it to get cold again. Euro does that by the end of the run. 

When is the end of the run?

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Good post Q.  The cold coming east after the 16th or so is being pretty consistently modeled.  Have no chance at significant winter storm in the SE without cold in the eastern half.  Pretty frustrating seeing Portland getting ready for potential winter storms over the next 7 days when their annual average snowfall is 3".  

Yup! And if Portland is getting it, the SE is not.

 

 

 

.

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3 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Western trough Is gone by day 9 on the ensembles.  Looking forward to tracking some storms!

Super cold air in Canada over the next 10 days. While heights certainly rise over the west after next weekend, that negative PNA is hanging in there like a hair on a biscuit.  At least there are some signs of a pattern change.  Hopefully we see some solid model evidence in the next few days. 

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2 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Western trough Is gone by day 9 on the ensembles.  Looking forward to tracking some storms!

How can you tell? Are you looking at 500 mb map?

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3 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Western trough Is gone by day 9 on the ensembles.  Looking forward to tracking some storms!

We just have to convince the models to track them along with us..

 

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Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting...  Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us,  probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year.  

Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5.  The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5.  

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26 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting...  Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us,  probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year.  

Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5.  The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5.  

6z GFS was a good run haha. I'd take that. 

Key point is all signs are pointing (finally) to a relaxing of the western trough that allows a better storm track and more opportunity for storms to tap the cold air available. I hate burning such vast stretches of winter but there may be light at the end of the tunnel. This has been consistently modeled to some degree for days now. Not just a run in fantasy land.

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