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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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CPC mentions the nagging +NAO...I know we've seen cases in the past where we get the big western ridge, but the cold isn't able to drive way south in the means due to a +NAO.

 

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020

The forecast 500-hPa circulation (blend of the global ensemble means) is consistent with the forecast during the preceding Week-2 period, showing the evolution from a negative PNA pattern to a negative NPO-WP pattern that favors more widespread below-normal temperatures over the CONUS. While this is broadly consistent with forecast MJO propagation, the forecast circulation fields also indicate the persistence of the low-frequency positive NAO pattern that has been observed over the past several weeks. This continued +NAO is not consistent with forecast MJO evolution.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

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36 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I thought the EPS looked warmer overall but could be wrong 

 

8507t.conus (1).png

 

850t.conus (1).png

Big changes come just past 240 and locks in all the way to the end. 

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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

GEFS mean. 1585494543_download(2).thumb.png.dd0fd6389a12e62b27ab3d244d6b0e22.png

All of this in the SE falls between the 20th and the 26th. EPS snowfall is still coming in so I haven't seen it yet but based on H5 I'd be surprised if there wasn't some. 

 

Looks like some major Lowland snows for the Pac NW. 

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Great split flow pattern showing up on the GFS with HP ruling overhead.  That will give multiple shots of potential storm events as waves roll across.  

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8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

In the words of Stone Cold Steve Austin can I get a Hell Yeah?! (18z GEFS, hr324)bc3ffbce2ec6f066fcf7c70f51f82d98.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

I'll take that look. I know NW trends would eventually put my area in the sweet spot lol

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Can someone explain to a newbie if the MJO forecast Moving to 7 accurate or is it like everything else that changes?  Sorry for the dumb question 

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26 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Can someone explain to a newbie if the MJO forecast Moving to 7 accurate or is it like everything else that changes?  Sorry for the dumb question 

It’s just another forecast tool. They can change daily, their forecast. As best as I understand, phases 1,2,8, and now 7, per Webber, are our coldest phases for E and SE in winter months

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

MJO 7, gives CLT a lot of winter storms, so 7 is good

Yeah, I just don't want it high tailing it to the cod and back out to 4 and 5 for February. Take a stroll and hang out in 8, 1, 2 for a while it's nice there, lol.

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3 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

I really hope the MJO doesn't stall out in phase 7, and start back to loop around. 

 

1 hour ago, Grayman said:

Can someone explain to a newbie if the MJO forecast Moving to 7 accurate or is it like everything else that changes?  Sorry for the dumb question 

Those MJO plots tend to have that hook on the end.  Here are stats from DonSutherland - "Historic experience with the MJO following its reaching Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period (as occurred recently) sees the MJO progress into Phases 7 and 8 (88% cases)"

What I suspect we will see is something along the lines of the CFS, minus the hook on the end...that is, into Phase 5 at high amp, into Phase 6 at moderate amp, into Phase 7 at low to moderate amp, into Phase 8 at low to moderate amp, and into Phase 1 at low amp.

x11pGD0.gif 

The bigger question is will the atmosphere respond to the MJO tropical forcing in a manner that is consistent with prior cases.  It doesn't always respond (just look at last Februrary).  The MJO Seasonal Cycle tool from Paul Roundy is really good at showing the typical pattern produced by the MJO Phase and time of year - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

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3 hours ago, Wow said:

Great split flow pattern showing up on the GFS with HP ruling overhead.  That will give multiple shots of potential storm events as waves roll across.  

Yes that was classic split flow to a T...hope we get a shot at seeing that down the line

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

 

Those MJO plots tend to have that hook on the end.  Here are stats from DonSutherland - "Historic experience with the MJO following its reaching Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period (as occurred recently) sees the MJO progress into Phases 7 and 8 (88% cases)"

What I suspect we will see is something along the lines of the CFS, minus the hook on the end...that is, into Phase 5 at high amp, into Phase 6 at moderate amp, into Phase 7 at low to moderate amp, into Phase 8 at low to moderate amp, and into Phase 1 at low amp.

x11pGD0.gif 

The bigger question is will the atmosphere respond to the MJO tropical forcing in a manner that is consistent with prior cases.  It doesn't always respond (just look at last Februrary).  The MJO Seasonal Cycle tool from Paul Roundy is really good at showing the typical pattern produced by the MJO Phase and time of year - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

Grit, 

Great stuff.  Question, are the MJO plots/forecast based on ops/ensembles model data or actual obs?   Reason I ask is that you referenced last Feb.  I don’t recall the models giving us a sniff last Feb. or is my memory flawed?    

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31 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Grit, 

Great stuff.  Question, are the MJO plots/forecast based on ops/ensembles model data or actual obs?   Reason I ask is that you referenced last Feb.  I don’t recall the models giving us a sniff last Feb. or is my memory flawed?    

So the forecast MJO RMM plots are based on forecasts of tropical variables, typically OLR (clouds/convection), 850mb winds, and 200mb winds.  Sometimes VP (upper level divergence) is substituted, or included along with, OLR.

As for last winter, the MJO made a run thru Phase 4-5-6-7-8-1-2 in late Jan thru Feb, but we ended up with a La Nina-like -PNA pattern (i.e. we certainly don't always see the expected atmospheric response to the tropical forcing)

7uBcFCs.png

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

So the forecast MJO RMM plots are based on forecasts of tropical variables, typically OLR (clouds/convection), 850mb winds, and 200mb winds.  Sometimes VP (upper level divergence) is substituted, or included along with, OLR.

As for last winter, the MJO made a run thru Phase 4-5-6-7-8-1 in late Jan thru Feb, but we ended up with a -PNA pattern (i.e. we certainly don't always see the expected atmospheric response to the tropical forcing)

7uBcFCs.png

Awesome!  Thanks for clarifying   

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Big suppressed storm around the 23rd. Here in the mountains suppression always scares me but given our past with NW trends I'm happy to see it at this time frame. 

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4 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

What a damn dumpster fire verbatim. Cold is gone completely. Only 2 nights even get down to freezing. And just barely.

When major pattern changes are in the works, the models flip flop a lot, so hopefully just a blip, like Clemsons’ 35 game win streak, that’s about to be ended!:gun_bandana:

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7 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

What a damn dumpster fire verbatim. Cold is gone completely. Only 2 nights even get down to freezing. And just barely.

Seen this movie before - major changes telegraphed in the LR - then when it gets to the timeframe modeled - the pattern of persistence is the one that wins out - hope I am wrong but just seen this too many times before. 

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6z gfs says, continue to enjoy your rain!
What a damn dumpster fire verbatim. Cold is gone completely. Only 2 nights even get down to freezing. And just barely.
It is a blip, 6z GEFS hr3124be05625b62a180af69a227612115c2d.jpg

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